NL Central Focus: 5/24/16

The Cubs lost some momentum, and the Pittsburgh Pirates took advantage to gain some ground in the NL Central.

Here are the updated NL Central Standings:

Chicago Cubs

When the news broke that Stephen Strasburg signed a seven year, $175 million extension just months before being eligible to test free agency for the first time, the baseball world went crazy trying to figure out how much the Cubs would owe Jake Arrieta. As Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald points out, the Cubs would not benefit by pursuing contract negotiations with the best statistical pitcher in baseball over the last nine months.

The Cubs have bigger problems to worry about anyway, as they have dropped six of their last eight games, including four against NL Central opponents. While it’s certainly still too soon to panic, the Pirates and Cardinals have taken full advantage of the slump, as they have pulled to within five and six games, respectively, of the division leaders.

The Cubs had hoped veteran Shane Victorino would have provided some much needed middle infield depth near the start of the season, but yesterday, the team released Victorino from the Iowa Cubs, possibly ending the career of a rather successful player for many years. As they released one, the Cubs signed another with the addition of Joe Nathan. The former All-Star closer was immediately placed on the 60-day disabled list as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.

St. Louis Cardinals

Now seven weeks into the season, the Cardinals have yet to figure out the key to repeating their 2015 success. One of the big struggles has been the inconsistency of the starting pitchers. At times, it’s shades of last year on the way to the best record in baseball. At other times, the inability of starters like Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos Martinez to repeat the keys to their success is blatantly obvious. Until they establish consistency, if they do at any point this season, the starters will continue to keep the Cardinals from flying high.

The pitching struggles have contributed to the team’s difficulty winning at Busch Stadium. After 26 home games so far, the Cardinals have yet to win three consecutive games at home this season. In 2015, the Cardinals also won 24 of 46 one-run games at home. This year, they have won just two of the six one-run home games. It could play a big factor down the road if the Red Birds stay in the playoff race.

The tide could be turning to ensure the Cardinals do exactly that. They’ve won four of their last six, and they still have two more games at home in the series against the Cubs. At long last, the Cardinals could be on the verge of no longer treading water and start making the race for their fourth consecutive NL Central division title a little more interesting.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers placed Domingo Santana on the disabled list with right shoulder soreness. He and Ryan Braun have both been battling injuries over the last two weeks. Last week, a wrist injury kept Braun out of the lineup for a few days. This week, he missed four games due to a stiff back. It’s unclear whether the injury is a result of the chronic problem he has battled for much of his career or the strain of carrying a lousy team all season. Keon Broxton was recalled to replace Santana on the active roster.

This year, the Brewers are collectively hitting just .235 with runners in scoring position (RISP). For the season, they’re hitting just .245. Alex Presley, Santana, Braun, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are the only four players hitting above average with RISP this season. The lack of consistency from the rest of the roster and inability of home run hitters like Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter to hit with runners on base have clearly hurt the team. The Brewers’ inability to come through in the clutch, combined with too many pitching struggles to count, will keep the Brewers at the bottom of the NL Central all season.

One of those pitching struggles will be difficult to correct during the season. The Brewers’ pitchers have gone from best (2015) in changeup runs above average, according Pitch f/x to worst (2016). Without going into all the details, hitters are not being fooled by young pitchers who have yet to master the changeup. It’s not an uncommon problem for young pitchers, but it is usually countered by veterans who have learned the importance of an effective changeup.

Cincinnati Reds

On the Fifth Mascot, John Fay discusses whether Eugenio Suarez is productive enough offensively for the Reds to keep putting him in the lineup, despite being one of the worst third basemen in baseball. Fay thinks the glove will eventually catch up, but I would tend to disagree. This season, he has a .906 fielding percentage at third over 372.0 innings. In the minors, he had just a .928 fielding percentage in 351.2 innings. Slashing just .235/.287/.422, Suarez should be considered on the hot seat to improve quickly or be quickly replaced as the Reds rebuild.

Last week, Bryan Price served his one game suspension and paid his fine after being ejected from the series finale against the Pirates. Ross Ohlendorf, who was also ejected after hitting David Freese with a pitch following a bench warning, successfully appealed his three game suspension this week. For a pitcher, short suspensions like this tend to be a farce for relievers anyway, but it still makes a mockery of player safety. Ohlendorf should have served a one game suspension, rather than having the suspension completely rescinded.

One thing the Reds would like to rescind is this entire season. With the third worst record in all of baseball, behind only the Braves and Twins, the Reds have struggled, just as expected. At just a .341 winning percentage, the Reds are on pace for a record of 55-107, which would be the worst in franchise history. Before the season, I predicted the Reds would repeat the 2010 Pirates record of 57-105. The 2016 Reds would best the record of .344 set by the 1934 club, who finished the season 52-99.

That’s a wrap for this week. Be sure to check back next week for the latest news concerning the NL Central.

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