NL Central Focus – 7/12/16

Heading into the All-Star break, the Cardinals and Pirates once again have hope in the NL Central race.

Here are the updated NL Central standings:

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been connected with several high-profile trades. They’re desperate to end the championship drought, but it’s unlikely the cavalry will be running in to ensure the Cubs capture the division and attempt the Giants streak of even-year pennants. Much like the Pirates, the Cubs will have players returning after the break. The only difference is the Cubs lost with many of their best players healthy, while the Pirates won with some of theirs sidelined. The Cubs will need more production from their high-profile, high-paid players if they wish to hold off the Cardinals and the Pirates.

Part of the Cubs’ recent struggles could be due in part to the team exceeding the 20 day stretch outlined in the current collective bargaining agreement. Heading into the All-Star break, the Cubs played on 24 consecutive days. Ben Zobrist has found the rigorous schedule so trying that he spoke out for greater enforcement of the rule in the next collective bargaining agreement.

Before Opening Day, Jake Arrieta would have been the consensus pick to lead the team in ERA heading into the break, but the man who ended the Pirates’ 2015 season is not the team leader. He is not even second. Arrieta is third with a 2.68 ERA, trailing both Kyle Hendricks (2.55) and Jon Lester (2.67). Arrieta has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three starts. In his last start before the break, Josh Bell turned on a curveball over the outside part of the plate and nearly sent it out of PNC Park for a pinch-hit grand slam. The question is which Arrieta will show up after the break?

St. Louis Cardinals

Given the season Matt Carpenter is having, it should come as no surprise that it takes two players to fill in for his absence. Greg Garcia made some outstanding plays at third base in last week’s series against the Pirates. Kolten Wong is also factoring in replacing Carpenter by batting as the leadoff hitter at times, along with Garcia in others. Carpenter is expected to be out for a month. Even made easier with the All-Star break, Garcia and Wong will be key factors in keeping the Cardinals in the NL Central race.

If the prospect of the future doesn’t look too promising, the past should be a pleasant relief. The Cardinals managed to head into the break just seven games behind the Cubs in the NL Central, despite being well below average at Busch Stadium and having several key players, namely Adam Wainwright, get off to a bad start. Cardinals’ manager Mike Matheny said this week the club is lucky to be in the position they are.

The Cardinals could benefit from a pitching prospect of their own. On Sunday, Alex Reyes wowed scouts and players with his ability to reach 101 mph on the radar gun and freeze batters with an unusual level of movement. Reyes could reach the majors this season, which would really benefit an inconsistent Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Milwaukee Brewers

According to Ken Rosenthal, 18 scouts were in attendance for a Single-A rookie league game, including two from the Brewers. Much like the Cubs, the Rangers are looking to add that final piece to separate them from the pack as the clear favorite. Jonathan Lucroy could be on their radar as that final piece. If the Brewers are willing to part with Lucroy for a package which includes one or more players likely to be unable to be named until after the 2017 first-year player draft, it would be a serious departure from their spring training demands.

While a deal to send Lucroy somewhere seems far from imminent, Jeremy Jeffress isn’t out of the woods from the possibility of packing his bags. Jeffress has been one of the National League’s best closers. Team control made him unlikely to be moved, but the Marlins supposedly pursued a deal to acquire Jeffress before getting Fernando Rodney. Hopefully no one told Rodney he was the Marlins’ second choice.

In a week dominated by trade news and rumors, the Brewers dealt Aaron Hill to the Red Sox. It was a move in the works since the Brewers sent Jean Segura to the Diamondbacks during the offseason. The Brewers acquired two minor league players in addition to the one they really coveted Isan Diaz. Depth is a key to rebuilding any franchise, and moves like the Hill trade are necessary to accomplishing that task.

Cincinnati Reds

It was hardly headline news, but Jay Bruce joined utility man Adam Duvall for the All-Star game festivities in San Diego. Neither Bruce nor Duvall have had impressive seasons, outside of respectable power numbers. Bruce in particular unjustly got the nod to replace the Cubs’ Dexter Fowler instead of Gregory Polanco. Deserving players should not be barred from appropriately appearing in the showcase of the game’s best, but no team on pace for a historically bad season should have players preventing more qualified players from playing in the All-Star game.

In regards to this historically bad season, the Reds .360 winning percentage puts them on pace to finish 58-104, which would be only the second time in history the team would finish with more than 100 losses. That pace would put them just one loss shy of my pre-season prediction of 57-105, an intentional jab at the Pirates’ abysmal 2010 season. With no relief in sight on their second half schedule, the Reds are highly likely to meet or exceed loss expectations.

Despite the struggles, Bryan Price is reportedly being given a long leash to turn things around. With the Reds all but eliminated in 2016, Price is likely going to be given a chance to prove to management whether or not he can manage some of the Reds’ more advanced prospects. If he is being viewed as a bad influence on some of the young players, he may not survive the season as manager. With one of the worst bullpens in baseball history, the Reds did part ways with pitching coach Mark Riggins.

That’s a wrap for this week. Check back next week for a special All-Star edition of NL Central Focus.