As we continue to preview the upcoming season, we begin to take a look at the other teams in the NL Central, beginning with the Cincinnati Reds, who may be in for another rough season.
The past few seasons, the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals have been able to feast on the bottom-feeders in the NL Central: the Brewers and the Reds. The Reds were a good team back in 2013 when they played the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game, but since then the team has aged quickly and long-term, expensive contracts have begun to hold the small-market team back. So the Reds have been stuck trying to rebuild while holding onto a few players that they can’t get rid of. They’ve been able to do that slowly, as they no longer have Brandon Phillips or Johnny Cueto, but they still have Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, both of whom are making over $20 million per year.
But the youth movement is upcoming. Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, and Robert Stephenson are all 26 years old or younger and will all likely begin the season in the rotation. Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, and Billy Hamilton have good chances to start on Opening Day, and each of them are 26 years old or younger. While contention is still likely at least a couple of years away, they should improve from last season.
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Major Off-Season Moves
- After speculation for much of the off-season about if he would get traded, long-time second baseman Brandon Phillips was traded to the Braves for two minor league pitchers. That’s good news for the rest of the NL Central.
- In January, the Reds traded Dan Straily to the Marlins after just one season, albeit a good one. Straily made 34 starts for the Reds last season and his shoes will be tough to fill.
- Homer Bailey had surgery earlier this month to remove bone spurs from his elbow, and he may not be ready for Opening Day.
- In terms of free agents, the Reds signed veteran Scott Feldman and reliever Drew Storen, along with a few players signed to minor league deals.
Projected 25-Man Roster
With some help from MLB.com, and some educated guesswork, this is how I see the Reds 25-man roster at the moment:
Starting Rotation:
Anthony DeSclafani
Brandon Finnegan
Scott Feldman
Robert Stephenson
Position Players
1B – Joey Votto
2B – Jose Peraza
SS – Zack Cozart
3B – Eugenio Suarez
C – Devin Mesoraco
LF – Adam Duvall
CF – Billy Hamilton
RF – Scott Schleber
Bullpen
Drew Storen
Bench
?
? = The Reds are more than likely to sign an outfielder during spring training to fill a spot on the roster
Expert Projections
Most places see the Reds finishing with between 65 and 75 wins, similar to last season when they won 68 games. The goal for the Reds this year is likely just to do better than last season. Fangraphs has the Reds finishing at 70-92, Bleacher Report has them at 67-95, and USA Today at 66-96. A lot of this will depend on if Homer Bailey and Joey Votto can stay healthy, one the anchor of the rotation and the other the anchor of the lineup. And if some prospects get called up and can make an immediate impact, that could change the outlook of the season as well.
Strengths
Last season, the Reds were middle-of-the-pack in runs scored in the National League, but second-to-last in ERA. They didn’t lose much in the off-season outside of Brando Phillips, but their rotation is still iffy at best. On the other hand, the bullpen could be a strength for the team this upcoming season. Tony Cingrani has fallen on rough times the past few seasons, but the upside is still there. The same goes for Drew Storen, who could be a trade chip for the team come July if he’s pitching well. Raisel Iglesias took a leap forward last season after he was used primarily out of the pen and not as a starter, and he may have the inside track to the closer role this April. He pitched to a 2.53 ERA and a 2.7 WAR last season, so keep an eye on him. Michael Lorenzen also pitched to a sub-three ERA last season, and Blake Wood is a quality veteran who came into his own last season.
Weaknesses
The glaring weakness for this team is the rotation. While there’s a good chance it won’t be as bad as it was last season, there are still enough question marks to make any Reds’ fan nervous. Will Homer Bailey be ready for Opening Day, and wil he be able to stay healthy for the majority of the season? Will Scott Feldman be able to rebound from a sub-par 2016 season? Will Robert Stephenson be able to take a step forward this year? I expect the rotation to improve from last season, but it’s filled with mostly average four and five-starters. No one outside of Bailey seems capable of taking over and dominating a game like an ace.
The loss of Phillips will make second base a virtual hole for the Reds this year as well. Jose Peraza will likely start the year there, but he’s primarily a shortstop, and this will be his first full year as a starter at second. We’ll see if he lasts all year there.
Putting it All Together
All in all, the Reds are likely in for another rough season. Joey Votto and Homer Bailey could provide bright spots, but Bailey hasn’t pitched a full season since 2013 and Votto, although it seems unlikely now, has to eventually begin a decline at age 33. The Reds do have a top-ten farm system (according to Keith Law), but none of their top prospects seem to be future aces or All-Stars, so the team might not even be able to look forward to top prospects debuting this season. Unfortunately, no matter what their record is, the Pirates always seem to struggle with the Reds and the Brewers. If the Pirates want to have any shot of making the playoffs this season, they’ll have to beat up on the Reds. On paper, that shouldn’t be too difficult.
Image Credit – Kasey Marcum via Flickr Creative Commons
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