Today marks the greatest day for any baseball fan. While the postseason is technically on its fourth day of play, today begins the “real” play-off stretch – the stretch that everyone associates with the start of the run to the World Series. With the National League starting their Division Series today, I decided to go ahead and make some predictions about what will happen, and see how it turns out.
Another writer, and friend of mine, Justin Anderson, will be working with the American League – be sure to check that out, too.
To preface this all, I do not consider myself an “expert” by any means, but I would say that I follow the sport close enough to hopefully get some of my predictions right. This is by no means a shot in the dark, and should wind up fairly close. With that, let’s get started!
NLDS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
I’ll begin with the series that’ll open first – the match-up of NL Central rivals the Cardinals and Pirates. This should be a very good series, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see neither team ever take a real advantage. I could easily see this being one of those rare series where people look back at the end and think there was no clear winner.
Obviously there will be one team that moves on, and one that doesn’t, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see four or five very close games where neither team ever gains an advantage and goes down to the final out. During the regular season, these two teams matched up 19 times, with the Pirates winning the series 10-9 but the Cardinals out scoring them 77-75. Needless to say, these teams played each other very close.
The Cardinals open with what seems to be the pitching advantage of Wainwright vs. Burnett, and plan to use four starters throughout the series (using Wainwright again should the series goes to game five). The rotations are pretty close, in general, though as both teams finished with a 94 FIP- (meaning they were 6% better than league average). Their bullpens are fairly close, as well, as the Cardinals were 11% better than league average (89 FIP-) and the Pirates were 9% better (91 FIP-).
The difference comes in the line-up. The Cardinals line-up, not including pitchers, had the second highest wRC+ at 113 while the Pirates came in at 11th with a 106. The Cardinals, in terms of wRAA, was about twice as valuable as the Pirates.
Both on paper, and throughout the season, these two teams are insanely close and I wouldn’t expect this series to be any different. Both teams have the ability to put up runs in a large chunk and both possess the ability to shut down scoring opportunities. It’ll be interesting to see if one side of the game plays particularly well for either team, as that could be the difference in the series.
Ultimately I have to go with the Cardinals in this series. With as close as both teams are on paper and as tough as they’d played all season, I think the Cardinals experience becomes a greater asset than what might be otherwise.
Pick: Cardinals in 5
NLDS: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This series also intrigues me. I think either way this series will be wrapped up quickly, though I could honestly see both sides winning it with three straight victories. The right handed heavy line-up bursting with power in Atlanta should provide some tough challenges for the Dodgers two big lefties, Kershaw and Ryu. Unfortunately for the Braves, the Dodgers are good at getting opposing batters to swing and miss, and the Braves are good at swinging and missing. The Dodgers line-up isn’t too shabby either, and the Braves also have some very good starters and relievers that can shut opponents down themselves.
The Braves and Dodgers were both top 10 offenses, and were separated by just 1% (108 to 107), though the Dodgers put up a 114 wRC+ in the second half. As I mentioned before, the Braves have a lot of power but also missed the ball a lot. The Braves were the only winning team in the top 5 of K%, but also managed to hit 178 home runs (tied for fifth, with Boston). Both teams definitely have their advantages, and both definitely have their weaknesses. What makes this series great, is both teams also have rotations that can exploit opponents weaknesses.
The Dodgers rotation finished 6% better than league average, with a 94 FIP- while the Braves rotation was just 2% worse with a 96 FIP-. In terms of K/BB, the Braves have the advantage though they’re barely over the Dodgers starters. The only spot where either teams have a clear advantage is in the bullpen. The Dodgers overall bullpen pitched to a 99 FIP- (basically league average), which was barely in the top 20 teams of the league. In the second half they managed to fix some of their problems, and even add some arms to their pen, but they were still only able to bring that line up to a 96 FIP- (good for 15th over that span). The Braves, on-the-other-hand, were phenomenal. They’ve got the best reliever in baseball, and a very good group of guys to get the ball to him. Atlanta threw to an 84 FIP-, which was third in all of baseball. In the second half they’re pitching to an incredible 73 FIP-, and have proven they can shut down any line-up at any time.
Ultimately I see the Braves ending up on top of this series, simply because their bullpen is stronger. The teams are virtual locks in everything, but the bullpen, and that should help tip the scales in Atlanta’s favor. While I could see either team winning this, and either team sweeping it at that, I ultimately don’t see that happening.
Pick: Braves in 4
NLCS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
The Cardinals and Braves match up similarly to how the other teams match up. Statistically speaking the Cardinals and Dodgers have similar rates (though the Cardinals bullpen is much better) and the Braves and Pirates have similar rates (again, the bullpen difference). Assuming both Division Series are as close as I believe they will be, I think this will be another very close series.
I’ve already taken you through the numbers, and told you the similarities/differences, so I won’t take you through that again. Instead I’ll talk about the regular season match-up.
The Cardinals and Braves played each other to a 4-3 season series victory, won by the Braves. What’s weird about that, though is the Braves went 3-0 at home, and the Cardinals went 3-1 in their park. I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two teams play similarly in October, which makes the seeding crucial for this series.
In the last week (actually the last day) of the season, the Cardinals locked up the top seed of the National League – which gives them home field advantage up until the World Series (if they make it that far). Getting that extra game at home could turn out to be crucial for the Cardinals, and I think it helps them take the series – though I think both teams will take at least 1 game on the road.
Pick: Cardinals in 7
The match-ups that are set up for the National League should be very good. No matter who wins the Division Series, the opponents should always be very tightly matched up and should be some great entertainment. Whoever wins, however it happens, fans should be set up for some great, great October baseball.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
