No Longer Cut And Dry

Kevin Millwood has just signed a 5-year, $60 million contract with the Texas Rangers (although it’s in actuality a 4-year, $48 million deal) which means he will not be a Red Sox. The Sox had made a late push for Millwood, and had met with his agent. I was originally against this signing very much for the Red Sox, but then I took a look at Millwood’s career and eventually became accustomed to the concept of Millwood being a Red Sox.
Now, if Millwood had signed with the Red Sox, I would have been cautiously optimistic, guardedly pessimistic. Fortunately, I won’t have to feel this way now, although I do feel that Millwood would have, in the end, been a good move. This late push from the Red Sox signifies that the Sox are in the market for a starting pitcher.
Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, David Wells, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo, Jonathan Papelbon, with Jon Lester on the horizon.
If we added Kevin Millwood, we would have had nine potential SPs by the end of 2006, which tells me a few things.
ONE: Jon Lester will probably spend the entire year at AAA, save for September (if he succeeds)
TWO: Jonathan Papelbon is assured of a bullpen role on the Red Sox
THREE: A trade of David Wells is imminent, and
FOUR: A trade of either Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement would be imminent if we had signed Millwood.
If the four scenarios are true, then we are left with Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement/Bronson Arroyo, and _________. Kevin Millwood would have filled the blank.
Now he’s not, which means that this Arroyo/Clement trade may not go through, unless the Red Sox feel comfortable inserting Papelbon into the starting rotation. They may or may not feel that way (all signs point to them not feeling comfortable – yet – with Papelbon in the rotation), but the signing of Millwood would have triggered a couple more moves – Clement or Arroyo would be history. Wells pretty much is already (Dodger prospects flipped for Julio Lugo?) but which team is Matt Clement and Bronson Arroyo most linked to?
The Mariners. For Jeremy Reed.
So Millwood spurning us may very well cost us Jeremy Reed.