No one Fears the Deer: Diagnosing Milwaukee’s Slow Start

High hopes for Milwaukee have blossomed into a terrible start. What’s causing the drop-off and can the Bucks turn things around?

Last year, Milwaukee was the league’s fastest rising team, adding 26 wins to their league-bottom 15 from 2014. New coach Jason Kidd installed a switch-heavy scheme for his lengthy defense, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo made the leap into high-quality players, and the Bucks weathered the loss of #2 pick Jabari Parker to make the playoffs as the #6 seed and push Chicago to 6 games. This year dawned with high hopes and a continued rise; I myself picked them to host a playoff series. The exact opposite has happened, and Milwaukee sits 13th in an improved East, 5 games below .500. What are some reasons for the poor start, and is there hope for this team to regain last season’s promise?

Change in Personnel

Any discussion of this year’s Milwaukee Bucks has to start with a discussion of the roster turnover. The Bucks made three major exchanges from the bulk of last season to this one, and they have had serious ramifications. While they certainly upgraded in draft pedigree, the on-court results have been less than spectacular thus far.

The Bucks’ signing of Greg Monroe in the offseason was viewed as a major win by the franchise, as Monroe chose small-market Milwaukee over large markets such as New York and Los Angeles. His decisions was analyzed and praised, and his role as a “true center” in Milwaukee was thought to provide the Bucks with a post presence at both ends of the court, and especially on offense. To open up the cap space, they needed to jettison veteran center Zaza Pachulia to Dallas for peanuts, but the thought was replacing the 209th (according to ESPN’s NBA Rank) best player with the 47th would be a major upgrade for Milwaukee. Whatever Monroe gave up to Pachulia on defense would surely be made up on offense.

Thus far this season, that hasn’t been the case. While Monroe’s offensive RPM (Real Plus-Minus) is better than Pachulia’s is this year, it’s only a third of what Zaza’s mark with the Bucks was last season, and defensively Monroe – while above average – is only about half of Pachulia’s mark both last year and this. Monroe might be putting up more stats and snagging more rebounds, but the team simply is not as good as it was last year when you compare him to, of all people, Zaza Pachulia.

That being said, Monroe is still the #12 center in RPM; he’s not destroying the team when he comes in. Jabari Parker has been working his way back from last year’s ACL tear, and he has cratered the team when he is on the court, with a negative RPM putting him 78th out of 94 qualifying power forwards. He has replaced small-ball four Jared Dudley, who is listed among shooting guards on ESPN’s site but would slot in 30 spots higher than Parker at power forward. And at the point, Michael Carter-Williams is stepping into the point guard position for the full season after joining the Bucks at the trade deadline last year; he replaced Brandon Knight, currently 12th in RPM among PGs, and has been so terrible – 57th, but with an RPM so negative, he is clearly torpedoing the Bucks’ chances of winning – that Kidd has moved him out of the starting lineup and to the bench.

On the surface, the trio of Greg Monroe, Jabari Parker, and Michael Carter-Williams was an upgrade over Pachulia, Dudley, and Knight; the proof is in the pudding though (perhaps figgy to fit the holiday season?), and the Bucks have been much worse this season. On a team level, their offense is roughly the same as last year, actually improving slightly from 25th to 21st. But the defense has fallen apart, and last year’s 2^nd-ranked defense has plummeted to 26th in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee has stumbled through the first quarter of the season despite facing a bottom-ten schedule. The results have not been good.

A New Hope

Here’s the crazy thing about everything I just said above. As poor as Milwaukee has played, as terrible as their defense has been, as many bad losses as they have accrued to this point… they are only seven games out of 1st in the East. Seven!! They are only four wins behind 4th-seeded Indiana. (Editor’s Note: Standings accurate as of 11:00 AM on December 12, 2015) The parity in the East has kept the door to the playoffs not only cracked, but propped wide open for any teams who want hope.

Their proximity to the playoffs doesn’t mean anything if they continue to play terribly. However, there are reasons to expect improvement. First, they are only 2 games off of their record at this point last season; a new coach and some new pieces took time to gel last season as well, and it wasn’t until January that things started to trend above .500. As the newer and less-used pieces gel on the court with the established players, this team should improve, especially on defense, where Milwaukee employs one of the best assistants in the league in Sean Sweeney.

Second, the nucleus of this team is very young. Of the desired five starters, Monroe is the elder statesman at 25. There is room for each player to individually grow in their game and instincts. The Greek Freak has grown each and every month he’s been in the league it has seemed, and Jabari has less than a season’s worth of games under his belt and isn’t even old enough to drink. That growth should help this team play better.

Finally, the Bucks aren’t a terrible team hoping for improvement. They are a team on the rise, with a #2 defensive finish last season in their very-near history. They can be a good defensive team; other teams that are trying to look past a poor start often cannot start with that foundation. If the players settle into the scheme and develop that chemistry, and a few bouncing balls bounce their way, this team can move back towards their potential ceiling.

We don’t know for sure yet if Milwaukee is good or bad; this season has been too topsy-turvy from top to bottom to pass judgments on teams just yet. New Orleans is 14th in the West, Houston is under .500, and the Charlotte Hornets are the #2 seed in the East. Milwaukee fans will have to be a little more patient, however – the Bucks suit up against Golden State twice in the next week, including tonight. But after that, the schedule starts to move in their favor. There is a lot of basketball still to play, and if Milwaukee can get its legs underneath it, there is plenty of reason to hope for a return to the playoffs.