Last night, the internet went crazy as Shams Charania of the Vertical reported that the Sixers and Hawks were having trade discussions surrounding Nerlens Noel and Jeff Teague. Obviously, the majority of Sixers fans were incredibly unhappy. Noel, the number 6 pick in 2013 NBA Draft, was acquired as the first major piece of the Sam Hinkie led rebuild. Many Sixers fans, myself included, have a strong connection to Noel, an underrated defensive center with room to grow. Still, even when you put that sentimentality to the side, I think this trade makes very little sense.
Jeff Teague is a good player at a position of severe need for the Sixers. It is understandable that the Sixers would want to upgrade at the position and Teague wouldn’t be a bad guy to plug into the starting point guard spot for a few years. Teague isn’t a perfect fit with Simmons, but he’s good enough. He would give the Sixers a competent point guard to run the offense, something they have lacked since Michael Carter-Williams was shipped out for the Lakers pick. Still, trading Teague for Nerlens violates one of my key team building tenants- do not invest highly in a point guard who isn’t elite. As I said earlier, Teague is a really good player but isn’t even a top 10 point guard in the league. That just demonstrates how deep and saturated the position has become in 2016. I wouldn’t mind signing a player like Teague to an overpay on a short contract in free agency considering how capably he could run the offense, but I do not want to give up Noel for that.
For me, it comes down to this, why would I want to trade my 22 center who was historically great defensively as a rookie for a middle of the road starter? Nerlens Noel, at this point in his career, might be more valuable than Jeff Teague. This obviously doesn’t even factor in Noel’s ability to grow. At just 22, I think Noel has a really could chance to develop into one of the best three or four defensive centers in the entire league. His combination of fluid lateral athleticism, great hands, and shotblocking could allow Noel to become an even more dominant and versatile defensive force. I understand that there is a logjam in the frontcourt, but I do not think you can trade Noel. I’ve said this before. If you trade Nerlens, it leaves with an injured Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor (a player who is both a terrible defender and rebounder) as your centers. I think you need Nerlens in case Joel never plays. So for me, a team would really need to overpay for Noel in order for me to trade him instead of Okafor.
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None of this even mentions that Jeff Teague does not fit the Sixers rebuilding timeline whatsoever. Teague is 28 and will be an unrestricted free agent after this upcoming season. By the time Ben Simmons will be ready to compete, Teague will probably be around 32 and in need of another contract. Why would you trade Noel for a season of Jeff Teague and the right to overpay him as he ages out of being a really effective player? Now, Noel will also be a free agent after next season but he will be restricted. Noel is much younger. His contract will run through his primes. You will be paying for his future, whereas with Teague you would be paying for his past.
Now, we don’t know the full parameters of the deal. It is possible that the Sixers could be getting more in the deal besides Teague and that we could look foolish for dismissing the deal. Still, Atlanta doesn’t really have the assets to add that would make thia trade much better. They have their own pick at 21 and a future lottery protected Minnesota pick that turns into 2 second rounders if it does not convey. Not exactly enough for me to give up Noel for Teague. Still, Sixers fans have to wait for the final deal in order to fully judge it. Secondly, this is a rumored trade. It is incredibly well sourced so I am sure that it is being discussed. However, we don’t know how far along the discussions are. We do not know how the Sixers feel about this deal. Maybe this deal is just a smokescreen to increase Okafor’s value. We just cannot be sure. The rumors should be concerning for Sixers fans but it would be premature to bury the new front office for a trade that has not happened yet and might not ever happen.
Overall, I think this would be a bad trade for the Sixers. It would be giving up on a possible future piece in order to gain a short term solution. It reeks of the various Sixers front office regimes of the mid to late 2000s. Bryan Colangelo has said on multiple occasions that he understands the team must be patient and that the climb to the top of the league is a difficult one. Those are good things to hear, but this trade directly contradicts that quote. This would be a move that would make the Sixers better but could also move them closer to the NBA’s dreaded treadmill of mediocrity. Colangelo should not be criticized for a move that may never happen. However, if this trade ends up materializing, it will be the first big mistake of his tenure and a sign that Sixers fans should be worried.
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