Contributor: Nolan Howell
Not unlike the unfortunate rash below your belt line, we are back when you least expect it.
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial guide, it is my responsibility to make sure lose enough money to ensure that you won’t buy Bellator 120 on pay-per-view over and over and over again. It is also my duty to inform you that Undercard Superstar and its partners are not responsible for your loss of money, pride, respect from your children and/or respective other, or any other valuables.
Today, we look at UFC 173: Barao vs. Dillashaw. This card has been hastily thrown together due to injuries and the top heavy nature reflects that. However, can we find some values in the top three bouts? Or, are they all squash matches in the sportsbooks that will force us to look elsewhere?
Let’s get to it.
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Aaron Phillips: +125 vs. Sam Sicilia: -155
- David Michaud: -155 vs. Jingliang Li: +125
- Anthony Njokuani: -240 vs. Vinc Pichel: +190
- Al Iaquinta: -375 vs. Mitch Clarke: +285
- Chris Holdsworth: -375 vs. Chico Camus: +285
- Tony Ferguson: -285 vs. Katsunori Kikuno: +225
- Michael Chiesa: -140 vs. Francisco Trinaldo: +110
The undercard is probably your best bet for value on this card, as the main card is very focused on name value rather than competitive nature of the matchup. Looking here, there are some low favorites that could translate into a decent parlay and a live dog.
Sam Sicilia and Michael Chiesa strike me as low enough favorites to roll into a parlay with a smaller underdog. Looking at underdog value here, the only one that strikes me is Chico Camus. Chris Holdsworth is an unproven commodity and Camus has some ring time savvy that could help him to keep it standing and work on Holdsworth. Otherwise, maybe Katsunori Kikuno is worth a look solely on the unorthodox style, but that’s a very risky bet.
Main Card Values:
- Jamie Varner: -185 vs. James Krause: +150
- Takeya Mizugaki: -175 vs. Francisco Rivera: +145
- Robbie Lawler: -230 vs. Jake Ellenberger: +180
- Daniel Cormier: -850 vs. Dan Henderson: +525
- Renan Barao: -800 vs. TJ Dillashaw: +500
Jamie Varner and Robbie Lawler stand out to me as parlayable favorites. Francisco Rivera is a very live dog against Takeya Mizugaki. If Mizugaki makes the mistake of wanting to trade a bit, it won’t pan out for him here. Otherwise, the main card is pretty devoid of value, save for some potential prop bets.
Final Thoughts:
There’s money to be made here, but the matchups are less certain as usually the case on undercards.
My bets: $10 on Rivera, Chiesa, Sicilia parlay to win $59.10.
Remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose!
-Nolan can be reached @nolanhowell or at [email protected]
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