Contributor: Nolan Howell
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial guide, it is my responsibility to make sure lose enough money to ensure that you don’t cash in on that “over/under 2 referees killed during the World Cup” prop bet. It is also my duty to inform you that Undercard Superstar and its partners are not responsible for your loss of money, pride, respect from your children and/or respective other, or any other valuables.
Today, we look at UFC 174: Johnson vs. Bagautinov. This is actually a pay-per-view card, showing that world dominance means putting Spam on a plate and presenting it as filet mignon.
Let’s take a look at the card that, if you don’t fucking watch, the UFC doesn’t want your fucking business and you’re not a true fucking fight fan!
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Jason Saggo: -120 vs. Josh Shockley: -110
- Michinori Tanaka: -130 vs. Roland Delorme: Even
- Tae Hyun Bang: +145 vs. Kajun Johnson: -175
- Mike Easton: -210 vs. Yves Jabouin: +170
- Elizabeth Phillips: -115 vs. Valerie Letourneau: -115
- Kiichi Kunimoto: +325 vs. Daniel Sarafian: -450
Lots of close fights here, so let’s take a look at what might be of some value.
Saggo vs. Shockley is a close one because Shockley has lost twice by submission and Saggo has eight of nine wins by submission. However, I do like Shockley on the basis of fighting on bigger stages against better competition. Delorme has value as he is a solid competitor and Tanaka is still an Asian MMA prospect. The only other sure thing would be Mike Easton as a parlayable favorite against Jabouin.
Main Card Values:
- Ovince St. Preux: -160 vs. Ryan Jimmo: -130
- Brendan Schaub: -170 vs. Andrei Arlovski: +140
- Ryan Bader: -160 vs. Rafael Cavalcante: +130
- Tyron Woodley: -110 vs. Rory MacDonald: -120
- Demetrious Johnson: -650 vs. Ali Bagautinov: +425
Some very decent underdog plays here. Jimmo has a good shot against OSP, just fighting with more experience against higher-level talent and using technique against OSP’s explosive athleticism. I like Arlovski against Schaub. Arlovski is just as slick of a boxer and his chin likely isn’t shattered enough to get caught by Schaub, so he just matches up well. Feijao is a very live dog against Bader, should he be able to defend takedowns. Woodley also looks good against MacDonald because of the too tentative gameplan of Rory, along with the marked improvement Woodley has shown.
Final Thoughts:
This is a solid betting card. Lots of decent chances if you do your research. Unfortunately, if you’re reading this, you probably haven’t.
My Bets: $10.50 on Arlovski, Woodley, and Cavalcante parlay to win $100.15.
-Nolan can be reached at [email protected] or @nolanhowell.
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