Contributor: Nolan Howell
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial guide, it is my responsibility to make sure lose enough money to ensure that you don’t try to put that fight between a tiger and Thiago Silva on in your backyard. It is also my duty to inform you that Undercard Superstar and its partners are not responsible for your loss of money, pride, respect from your children and/or respective other, or any other valuables.
Today, we look at UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso. A rarity in the watered down UFC, this is actually a stacked card with name value from top to bottom.
Let’s lose you some money.
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Cody Gibson: -210 vs. Manvel Gamburyan: +170
- Kevin Lee: -260 vs. Jon Tuck: +200
- John Howard: -260 vs. Brian Ebersole: +200
- Stephen Thompson: -400 vs. Patrick Cote: +300
- Jorge Masvidal: -400 vs. James Krause: +300
- Dominick Cruz: -500 vs. Takeya Mizugaki: +350
A bunch of risky underdogs here. Manny Gamburyan is a shell of whatever self he once was and Cody Gibson’s wrestling will be too much for him, barring a miracle. Kevin Lee just has too much for Jon Tuck. Brian Ebersole’s wrestling could present problems for John Howard, but he’s ultimately too slow. Stephen Thompson has faced and beaten much more capable strikers than Patrick Cote.
However, the final two tickle my fancy just slightly. James Krause has a crisp kickboxing game that could perhaps present Jorge Masvidal some trouble and his ground game from his back will not give Masvidal any breaks. There’s some value on Krause if you can build up the stomach for it. Same for Takeya Mizugaki, who has looked great and is facing a Dominick Cruz who has come off major knee surgeries and hasn’t fought in three years. Worth a little bit of coin on the somewhat probable chance that Cruz isn’t the same again.
Main Card Values:
- Cat Zingano: -300 vs. Amanda Nunes: +230
- Yoel Romero: -140 vs. Tim Kennedy: +110
- Conor McGregor: -280 vs. Dustin Poirier: +220
- Donald Cerrone: -140 vs. Eddie Alvarez: +110
- Demetrious Johnson: -1400 vs. Chris Cariaso: +750
There’s some potential here. Amanda Nunes has an outside shot against Cat Zingano given the potential ring rust, so that’s worth a very small bet. Tim Kennedy has incredible value as an underdog by virtue of being the more well-rounded, durable fighter. If he can withstand the blitz of Romero, he should take that. Dustin Poirier probably only has value on the basis of this being Conor McGregor’s best opponent to date. Aside from a submission, the likelihood of Poirier winning looks dim. However, look to put a bet on that fight ending by finish or an over/under bet on rounds. Cerrone and Alvarez are too risky, but perhaps look at a bet that it goes this distance considering the durability of both men.
Oh, and if Bill Gates or the like is reading this, go ahead and bet the mansions, the cars, the money, and even the exotic animals on Demetrious Johnson.
Final Thoughts:
This is a card for the gutsy gambler. Lots of opportunities to victory for the underdogs and some values that stand out.
My Bets: $50 on a Kennedy and Gibson parlay to win $105.
Remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose!
-Nolan can be reached @ucsmolan or at [email protected].
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