Contributor: Nolan Howell
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial guide, it is my responsibility to make sure lose enough money to ensure that you won’t waste your money buying commemorative Kimye Westdashian wedding tees. It is also my duty to inform you that Undercard Superstar and its partners are not responsible for your loss of money, pride, respect from your children and/or respective other, or any other valuables.
First, we look at UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs. Mousasi. It is a UFC Fight Pass card in Europe, so it is like…doubly worse? Yeah, it sucks pretty damn bad.
Let’s see if we can make chicken salad out of chicken shit.
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Ruslan Magomedov: -210 vs. Viktor Pesta: +170
- Maximo Blanco: -210 vs. Andy Ogle: +170
- Pawel Pawlak: -200 vs. Peter Sobotta: +160
- Iuri Alcantara: -400 vs. Vaughan Lee: +300
- Krzysztof Jotko: -115 vs. Magnus Cedenblad: -115
- Nick Hein: -145 vs. Drew Dober: +115
The pickings are very slim here, to say the least. One thing I can guarantee you is to never, ever bet on a Maximo Blanco fight, unless it is a prop bet where his opponent wins by DQ. Ruslan Magomedov should be a lock in his matchup and may be a parlayable favorite. Peter Sobotta is a live dog in his fight, as is Drew Dober against Nick Hein. Dober has faced better competition than Hein, but Hein holds credentialed pre-MMA skills in judo that should sway it in his favor.
My value pick probably has to be Krzysztof Jotko. Jotko is solid all the way around, which is a lot more than can be said about Magnus Cedenblad.
Main Card Values:
- Tom Niinimaki: -260 vs. Niklas Backstrom: +200
- Luke Barnatt: -200 vs. Sean Strickland: +160
- Francis Carmont: -155 vs. CB Dollaway: +125
- Gegard Mousasi: -300 vs. Mark Munoz: +230
I see Tom Niinimaki and Luke Barnatt having some decent value as favorites here. The main event is a no-go. CB Dollaway as a +125 underdog is probably a solid small bet, considering how slick his standup looked last fight.
Final Thoughts:
I mean, I guess I’ll bet something because I’m a degenerate. You probably shouldn’t bet on this card.
My bets: $10 on Dollaway to win $12.50. $10 on Magomedov, Jotko, and Barnatt to win $31.40
Next, we look at the TUF Brazil 3 Finale. This show will combine terribleness of Brazil Fight Night cards and the slow death pacing of Ultimate Fighter finales. Really, the only way you can deal with this card is to bet cash on it to make it interesting.
Oh, and Fabio Maldonado is fighting. That’s probably the only thing good about this card.
Let’s get to it.
All lines provided by Bovada. Lines subject to change depending on the time of writing.
Undercard Values:
- Pedro Munhoz: -275 vs. Matt Hobar: +215
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -150 vs. Richardson Moreira: +120
- Ricardo Abreu: -340 vs. Wagner Silva: +260
- Kevin Souza: -350 vs. Mark Eddiva: +265
- Paulo Thiago: -210 vs. Gasan Umalatov: +170
- Elias Silverio: -450 vs. Ernest Chavez: +325
- Rashid Magomedov: -325 vs. Rodrigo Damm: +250
Hm. Well, I would maybe tell you to bet on Gasan Umalatov here against Paulo “The Old Grey Mare” Thiago, but Umalatov lost to Neil Magny. Ew. Maybe Rodrigo Damm? Maybe? Yeah, I don’t know.
Main Card Values:
- Rony Jason: -280 vs. Robbie Peralta: +220
- Wariley Alves: -200 vs. Marcio Alexander: +160
- Antonio Carlos Jr.: -170 vs. Victor Miranda: +140
- Demian Maia: -500 vs. Alexander Yakovlev: +350
- Stipe Miocic: -500 vs. Fabio Maldonado: +350
Rony Jason is a solid bet as long as he stays under -300 or so against Robbie Peralta. I really have no clue about the TUF Brazil guys, so listening to the books would be advisable there. Otherwise, no value on this main card.
Final Thoughts:
Foreign cards are usually designed to give hometown/home country guys wins to send the fans home happy. As such, it’s a crapshoot given how regionals can suck internationally. Betting here is slim pickings, but I’m going to take one bet with my heart here that I will most assuredly be wrong about. Be sure to look out for prop bets here, especially looking at the main event going to a decision. Otherwise, this is a piss poor betting weekend for MMA because of the card quality.
My bets: $5.72 on Fabio Maldonado to win $20.02.
Remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose!
-Nolan can be reached at [email protected] or @nolanhowell.
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