Nolan Jones: Gaining Recognition and Momentum

As we near the start of the 2019 season many organizations are releasing prospect rankings of different kinds and one name from Cleveland is finally starting to appear near the top: Nolan Jones.

Since being taken in the second round back in 2016 Jones has impressed offensively, hitting well in the Arizona League before turning things up to another level in Mahoning Valley in 2017. These efforts saw him ranked #20 (2016) then #4 among overall Indians prospects by Burning River Baseball, but it was his incredible 2018 season that forced his name onto top 100 lists nationally and up to #2 in our own rankings of Tribe minor leaguers.

After showing limited power in both Arizona and short season ball (he hit his first pro home run in extended spring 2017, pictured at right), Jones exploded in Lake County with 16 home runs in 90 games. Always a doubles machine thanks to his combination of decent speed, good power and overall aggressiveness, Jones added 12 of those as well after hitting 18 in short season in 2017. With a .279/.393/.464 line in A ball, he was promoted to Lynchburg at just 20 years old, two and a half years younger than the average player in high A.

While he only played with the Hillcats for a month to end the season, it was enough time to establish himself as an offensive threat at that level as well. In just 30 games (one of which came in July when he was called up for just one game) he hit another three home runs and nine doubles to bring his season line to .283/.405/.466. This nearly matched his short season numbers despite rising two levels and playing against significantly older competition.

While the power is impressive, the area of Jones’ game that really sets him apart from his contemporaries is his mastery of the strike zone. In an era when sluggers care less and less about swinging and missing as long as they knock one out every once in awhile, Jones is producing at bats that hearken back to the days of Lou Boudreau (or at least Michael Brantley). His 89 walks across both levels lead to his OBP above .400 and placed him sixth in all of minor league baseball in total walks despite playing in just 120 games. Assuming he can keep up this pace as he advances, Jones could be a 30 double, 20 home run, 100 walk Carlos Santana type at a more prime defensive position.

Speaking of that position, defense could be the one aspect of Jones’ game that keeps him down. Originally drafted as a short stop, it didn’t take long to see that he wouldn’t be able to stay there and he hasn’t played a game up the middle since his rookie season in the AZL. Moving to third, he was initially an impressive fielder with a good arm, but as his offense improved, his errors increased and he was charged with 22 in 2017 in just 53 games, then 27 in 2018 in 105 games in the field. His range has diminished, his arm grown more erratic and he has looked lost in the field at times.

Because of this issue, it would probably be worthwhile to hold Jones back in high A for another half of a season to allow him to work on his defense without forcing his offense to adjust to the next level of pitching. As he is still at least two years away from being a starting Major Leaguer, this is the perfect time to establish whether or not he can remain at third base long term.

Unlike many of the Indians top prospects, the Cleveland minor league staff has yet to play around with Jones’ versatility. He has decent foot speed and provides enough offense to potentially play either corner outfield spot and should probably work out at first base a little just in case nothing else fits, but he has played exclusively at third over the last two seasons. Considering how they moved Tyler Krieger and Sam Haggerty around last season, this is a bit surprising. It is fair to say that there were no other real options at third in Lynchburg last year (Alexis Pantoja, Jorma Rodriguez and Gavin Collins each played more than 20 games at 3B in 2018), but it would have been worth it to test Jones somewhere else at some point.

A lot of things could potentially change between now and an assumed MLB ETA of 2021. Yu Chang is likely to get a shot at some third base in the big leagues this year and he is a considerably better defender than Jones, although not as accomplished of a hitter. Should he take over the position by the time Jason Kipnis hits free agency in 2020, it could force Jones to move as much as his own defensive lapses. If Chang flops, however, it could ultimately lead to a quicker advance of Jones as they look to move Jose Ramirez back to second and need to fill in the Yandy Diaz sized hole in the line-up.

Ultimately, Indians fans should be very excited about Jones, but not in too big of a hurry to see him in the big leagues. He definitely has the profile of a Major League hitter and will get there some day barring some unforeseen circumstances, but in this case the Indians normal patient process with prospects is the proper one.