Notes on the positional analyses

PROGRAMMING NOTE: ICYMI, I’m retiring from regular Titans blogging, effective March 9.

It’s now been three weeks since I started the positional analyses. A few things have happened since then, there are some things I didn’t include I probably should have, and the range and scope of what I did meant there are some things that kind of fell through the cracks or that I didn’t cover in the same way I would have if I’d done a more vigorous blogging schedule. Thus, this post, which tries to pick up some of those things.

1. On Mariota and Sacks by Head Coach.

In the QB positional analysis, I noted Mariota’s overall adjusted sack rate (ASR is a Football Outsiders number; I write for FO perma-disclaimer) was 9.5%, the third-highest of any quarterback with at least 100 dropbacks. I did not mention in the post there was unsurprisingly a split in Mariota’s sack rate under Ken Whisenhunt and under Mike Mularkey, who was named the interim coach to and earned the permanent job by doing a better job of protecting Mariota.

Under Whisenhunt, Mariota’s adjusted sack rate was 10.7%. Under Mularkey, it was 8.4%. The Whisenhunt rate was really bad, though not quite as bad as Austin Davis’ league-worst rate of 12.3%. The 8.4% is better, but even that is still bad-10th-worst among the 46 passers with 100 dropbacks. As I mentioned in the positional analysis, it is possible to be an effective passer with a very high sack rate-Russell Wilson was at 9.2%. But when Wilson was playing at an MVP level the second half of the season, he wasn’t sacked nearly that often (ASR of 5.6% from Week 8 on), plus Wilson plays a much more improvisational style than Mariota was asked to do. There’s a trade-off there.

I (unsurprisingly) don’t think this changes my underlying analysis. Even just looking at the Mularkey games, his sack rate is too high for the type of passer he is. Next year, when the Titans should have a better (or at least more stable) offensive line and wide receivers, plus a scheme that’s more focused on Mariota, should tell us a lot. If he still has an ASR of, say, 8.0% or more, then my expectation going forward is he’s likely to be an oft-sacked quarterback for the majority of his NFL career. If he gets down to league average or below, then I’ll be much more optimistic.

2. On the type(s) of back the Titans are looking for.

Talking about Mariota being more of a running quarterback and the Kordell Stewart mention seemed to be what most people took away from Mularkey’s appearance on PFT Live. But he’d said that before, several times-most people just didn’t spend hours listening to Mularkey talk after he was hired. What struck me about that interview was his specification he wanted a first- and second-down back. The obvious archetype for this is Michael Turner in Atlanta, where he had 376 carries and 6 catches in 2008. One implication for this is a back the Titans are interested in absolutely does not have to be an every-down back. He just has to be good at what he’s good at. Thus, that we may not have a good idea if Derrick Henry can catch or pass block is not a good reason to think the Titans wouldn’t take him at 33.

The other half of this is Mularkey has complemented that first- and second-down back with a specific third-down back-in Atlanta, Jason Snelling, Jerious Norwood, and Jacquizz Rodgers all filled this role at times. This player may have 100 carries or close to it and will probably catch 30 or more passes. If this back is on the roster right now, my guess is that it is Dexter McCluster, and recognizing the existence of this role in Mularkey’s offense should increase your estimate of the probability Dexter McCluster is still on the Titans in 2016. The roster bonus I speculated about in the positional analysis is due March 13 per Paul Kuharsky’s list, so we should know then if McCluster will likely be the guy to fill that role or if the Titans have another player to fill that role.

If McCluster is not that passing game back, then the Titans will likely be looking for two backs to fill these two roles. Thus, it’s not a matter of signing, say, Lamar Miller and calling it a day, but perhaps signing Miller and Alfred Morris or Miller and Derrick Henry (or another power back later in the draft).

3. On how many wide receivers the Titans need.

Paul Kuharsky, for one (and not to pick on PK, who I like), lists a wide receiver has one of the new starters the Titans have to have. One of the ideas that animated my WR positional analysis, though I didn’t make it explicit there, was to push back against the idea the Titans think they need to add one. One of my thoughts there, which I made more concrete with work after that post, is most years in a Mike Mularkey offense, not many people catch the ball.

For purposes of this work, I lumped wide receivers and tight ends together, since Mularkey has tended to adapt to his personnel there. (Atlanta example: 2008’s TE1 caught 15 passes. The next offseason, the Falcons acquired Tony Gonzalez, and he caught 83 passes the next year.) Mularkey has been a head coach or offensive coordinator for 11 seasons. In nine of those, the TE/WR who ranks fourth on the team has had 24 or fewer catches. I feel pretty confident that, if healthy, Delanie Walker will catch plenty of passes. I feel pretty confident that, if healthy, Kendall Wright will catch plenty of passes.

That means, if Mularkey can run his offense the way he wants, he needs just one more player who has to play a significant role in the passing game. I think they want Dorial Green-Beckham to be that player. They may still think Justin Hunter could be that player. Harry Douglas gives them a fallback option already on the roster. I think they could and probably should add a rotation-type player along the lines of Hakeem Nicks last year to give them a better fallback option on the outside than Douglas. But I don’t necessarily think that they see wide receiver as the same sort of need people on the outside do. Of course, with this free agency crop, that’s probably a good thing.

4. Offensive line statistics.

I threw the Football Outsiders numbers for the defensive line in the DL positional analysis, but because I broke up the offensive line into separate tackle, guard, and center posts, I never gave the same numbers. Before I do so, I should note that I like these numbers better for judging defensive line play than I do offensive line play. Like all numbers, they are heavily context-dependent, and different styles of backs, not just different qualities of backs, running behind the same line will produce different OL-related numbers (the Titans went from 8th to 28th in percentage of tackles that went for no gain or a loss from 2007 to 2008 because that was part of the Chris Johnson tradeoff).

So, numbers, mostly off the offensive line page at FO. The Titans were 20th in ALY. They fared quite poorly in power situations, third/fourth downs with one or two yards to go, plus goal to go in that distance, converting just 37% of the time (league average was 65%). They also fared poorly by second level yards, 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, ranking 31st in that category. I think that speaks to the deep limitations of the backs the Titans trotted out in 2015 and the major need for upgrades in that position group.

There weren’t any interesting coaching-related splits, at least that I found in a couple minutes of sorting. The distribution of runs by direction mostly matched what the league did-55% marked up middle or right/left guard in the play by play, compared to league average of 53%, 13% left tackle v. 13%, except they didn’t run quite as much to the right end (7% v. 10%, or 9-10 less carries over the course of the season). Nothing too earth-shattering or insightful, but worth a mention since I’m on the topic.