It’s only week two, but the USF Bulls already have a chance to match their win total from all of last season if they can take down the Big Ten’s newest addition, the Maryland Terrapins.
Coming off a narrow victory against FCS tin can Western Carolina, folks are less than enthusiastic for this Saturday’s matchup. Not that Maryland is a world-beater, but after barely beating a bad FCS team, it can’t feel good to have a real-life opponent staring you down.
Let’s get to it.
The Who: Maryland Terrapins
The Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The When: Saturday, September 6, 3:30 PM
Maryland’s Run Defense
Week 1 provided little to no insight for us as far as what to expect from the Terps. They played FCS creampuff James Madison, promptly destroying them 52-7 as just about everyone with common sense expected them to do.
Against JMU, the Terps yielded 161 yards on the ground, but it took 44 attempts to get there for an average of just 3.7 yards per carry. Of course, the Bulls are coming out of the Marlon Mack Show, where the freshman gained 275 yards and scored four times in his collegiate debut.
Obviously, he’s not likely to repeat that performance again, especially against an FBS opponent. He’s shown himself capable of ripping off the big run (or three), so he’ll likely still get his yards and maybe break one, but he’ll be much more limited and Maryland will no doubt stack the box to make the Bulls win through the air.
If Mike White and the passing game can get going, it will make life that much easier on the Bulls and their ground game. If not, it’s going to be a long day of running into stacked boxes for Mack and the Bulls.
Maryland’s Pass Defense
Much like their run defense, it’s hard to make sense of just where the Terrapins’ pass defense lies given their opponent. Vad Lee, making his first start for the Dukes after transferring from Georgia Tech, completed just 16-of-37 passes for 141 yards and two interceptions.
Unfortunately for USF, those are the kinds of stats White has been accustomed to putting up. Despite the success of the ground game against Western Carolina, White was an abysmal 9-of-26 passing with 181 yards to his credit.
White’s accuracy is a huge issue at the moment and if the Terps are smart, they will force the issue. Stack the box so that Mack can’t tear them apart like he did Western Carolina, make White find a rhythm and beat them before they even give Mack and the ground game a chance to make an impact.
Another poor performance from White could see an early switch to backup Steven Bench, who many considered a favorite to grab the starting job heading into camp.
Maryland’s Run Offense
Coming into the season, it was Maryland’s passing attack that we all thought would be the formidable portion of the offense, but the Terrapins put the ball in the hands of their backs a whopping 50 times last Saturday, rushing for 5.7 yards per carry as a team (285 yards on the day).
The Terps featured a solid two-headed attack of Brandon Ross and Wes Brown, with both sharing duties almost equally (Ross got 16 carries for 86 yards, Brown got 13 carries for 81 yards) while getting touchdowns from Ross and Albert Reid.
Caveats about quality of opponent applies here, but the Terps will no doubt try to set up the passing game with a pounding, balanced rushing attack and the Bulls need to be ready for a healthy dose of that. If they can limit the damage on the ground, the Bulls could force Maryland into becoming a one-dimensional offense, making things much easier to defend.
Maryland’s Pass Offense
With talented receivers in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, the talented but young and inexperienced Bulls will have their hands full. Quarterback C.J. Long struggled on Saturday, going 11-of-24 for just 111 yards and a touchdown.
While he balanced that performance out with 61 yards and three scores on the ground, he’ll no doubt be looking to build confidence and a rapport with his receivers, especially with Diggs who is a true game-breaker at wideout.
For the Bulls, they’ll need to find a way to pressure Brown into making bad decisions and keep him from getting the ball into the hands of his very dangerous receivers. The secondary will have to be on their toes; this is easily going to be the biggest test of their young careers and in just the second game of the season.
Three Things to Worry About
- The passing game doesn’t improve. One of the biggest concerns settled around White and the passing game and that hasn’t changed after one week and a subpar opponent. If White can’t make the Terps pay for cheating run, it’s going to be a long day offensively.
- The secondary struggles. Of the early portion of the schedule, this is the one team where you don’t want your young secondary to struggle. The Terps have weapons all over their receiving corps and can make you pay dearly for any transgressions.
- Mack and the run offense comes crashing to Earth. If the running game can get anywhere close to where it was last week, the Bulls will be competitive in this game. But if the Terps can shut down Mack and the Bulls rushing attack, this one will be over very early.
Three Things to Look Forward to
- A glimmer of hope through the air. With Andre Davis on the outside and the Terps likely selling out to stop the run early, look for at least one big play to Davis before the Terps adjust and limit him for the remainder of the day.
- Back seven limit Maryland’s ground game. One of the strengths of the Bulls defense is their back seven. Against the Catamounts, defensive backs Jamie Byrd, Chris Dunkley and Nate Godwin combined for 18 tackles while linebacker Nigel Harris chipped in another seven. Look for this group to hunker down and somewhat limit the balanced Terps rushing attack, keeping things close for at least the first half.
- A young secondary steps up. For at least part of this one, look for the very talented (and young) secondary to give quarterback C.J. Brown a tough time finding his receivers. It might not be the best game, but it will be a clear step up for the Bulls secondary.
Prediction: Maryland 41, USF 23
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