Last week was ugly and we should all just probably move on.
Let’s get to it.
The Who: vs. Connecticut Huskies
The Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The When: Friday, September 19th, 8:00PM
UConn’s Run Defense
USF is actually kind of good at this sometimes, so it’s not a total weak spot. Marlon Mack is averaging nearly seven yards per carry through three games which is pretty incredible when you realize there’s no one quarterbacking the offense, merely one of those Tupac-holograms. The Tupac hologram has a better completion percentage.
It also turns out that the Huskies aren’t very good. At anything. Anything at all. Except they might be kind of decent at defending the run? They’re 42nd in the nation right now, yielding around 120 yards per game.
The strength is the linebacking unit. Stewart Graham, Marquise Vann and Jefferson Ashiru are versatile and reliable. They led the team in tackles with 11 apiece last week and are capable of getting into the backfield. The offensive line is going to need to work extra hard to get to the second level and create room for Mack and the running backs.
UConn’s Pass Defense
It almost doesn’t matter how bad a team is at defending the pass anymore because Mike White and the USF passing attack will make them look like the friggin’ 1985 Bears. Then again, what else would you expect when your starting quarterback is completing 32.6 percent of his passes on the year?
None of this is helped by the fact that top receiver Andre Davis (sternum) and guard Thor Jozwiak (shoulder) are both questionable after missing the last two games. Taking away important pieces of the offense would hurt a normal quarterback, but when you’re this pitiful, it gets to a point where you wonder if you should continue trying.
UConn isn’t good against the pass (77th overall) and is giving up a whole mess of points per game (29.7/92nd), so there’s offense for the taking. It’s just a matter of White and the passing game figuring out how to connect the dots.
UConn’s Run Offense
This should be a nice bounce-back game for the defense and it’ll start on the ground. The front seven for the Bulls is talented, with experience at linebacker, but the key component to this equation is that the Huskies are miserable at running the ball. Like worse than the Bulls are at throwing it. Let that sink in for a second.
The Huskies are second-to-last in the nation, rushing for just over 66 yards per game. Part of this revolves around issues with the offensive line, part of it is just having backs that can’t create space or find holes (1.9 yards per carry).
If the Bulls don’t dominate this matchup and keep the Huskies one dimensional, be worried. Be very worried.
UConn’s Pass Offense
USF’s secondary is what it is at this point: very talented, but also very, very young. It’s going to make mistakes because it hasn’t spent enough time at the college level learning not to make those mistakes.
Of course, the Bulls aren’t very good at this, either. They’re 83rd in the nation at 222 yards per game and they lost their starting quarterback to a career-ending concussion. The replacement, senior Chandler Whitmer, has accuracy issues and the offensive line has had major pass-protection problems through three weeks.
The receiving core is talented, with Max DeLorenzo, Joshua Marriner and Arkeel Newsome all having 13 catches or more, so the potential for danger is there if the Bulls get lax. Shut down the run, dial up some pressure and this should be an easy(ish) day for the defense.
Three Things to Worry About
- Passing attack? Should you even bother worrying anymore? I don’t know. This is going to be bad no matter what, but something resembling “college offense” would be nice. A pipe dream, maybe, but nice.
- Uconn gains traction on the ground. This is the second-worst outfit in college football. They should not be able to run on you.
- Whitmer gets going. While not as inept as their ground game, they do have weapons through the air. The secondary needs to be sharp or UConn could surprise everyone with an efficient passing game.
Three Things to Look Forward to
- Mack attack. I’m not saying he’s going to repeat his week one numbers, but he should have a solid day. UConn is decent at defending the run, but Mack is still going to get his yards.
- Dominant defense. With the issues on offense for UConn, this should be easy pickings for the Bulls defense. Be smart, stay with your assignments and let the Huskies hurt themselves.
- Primetime. That’s gotta count for something, right?
Prediction: USF 17, UConn 10
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