We’re about one month into the college hockey season, so this seems a good time to take a look back at what we’ve seen. How have the three Division 1 Ohio teams done so far? Should we expect more of the same going forward, or will the results change through the rest of the year? Let’s break it down, team by team.
Team numbers come from USCHO and College Hockey Inc. Other stats are linked in the respective sections.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Key Numbers in Columbus
Overall Record: 3-5-1, Big Ten Conference Record: 0-0-0
Goals/Game: 2.44 (37th), Goals Against/Game: 3.00 (36th), Shot Diff/Game: -2.89 (38th)
High Point: 5-4 OT Win vs Providence Oct 10th
Low Point: 1-2 Loss at Miami Oct 18th
What Ails the Buckeyes?
There are problems abound for the Ohio State hockey team so far. The offense is not clicking (only Fritz at 1.00, Weis at 0.78, and Greco at 0.56 are over a half point per game). The defense is not working (OSU is giving up more shots than they take). The goaltending is has taken a step back (Tompkins has a .910 SV%, Frey a .903). It’s not a pretty picture in Columbus.
The first problem is one that may not go away. Remember the loss of Dzingel and McCormick? That’s rearing its head in an ugly way. Tanner Fritz is dong his best to lift the team, but it’s not enough. Freshman Matthew Weis is trying to fill the gaps, but the rest of the underclassmen talent will need to pick up the scoring pace to keep OSU afloat. Much of the mid-tier scoring on the 2014-15 Buckeyes has no history of big point totals, so it’s a wise bet to guess that continues.
The team defense issues may be mitigated somewhat if we take away the Miami weekend in October. In those bloodbath games, OSU was outshot by a combined 48 shots over two games. Without those clunkers, the Buckeyes have a more palatable +3.14 shots per game, a rate that would be top 20 in the NCAA.
Of course, throwing out the data may not be a great plan. That’s especially true with high-level competition ahead in Big Ten conference play. Minnesota is the obvious juggernaut, but even (the currently low-win percentage) Michigan and Wisconsin teams pose a threat. The Wolverines and Badgers are loaded with young talent, and by the time their 2015 games come along against the Buckeyes? The rest of the Big Ten should be ready to play.
The goaltending situation is difficult to read. Christian Frey was an apparent revelation last year with his .929 SV%. Unfortunately, that came only over 16 games played, hardly sample enough to consider his real talent level. To start this season, Frey has been an underwhelming .903 on the new year, even with a near-heroic performance in Miami. Chicago draft pick Matt Tompkins has picked up the starter role in recent game, but even his work isn’t inspiring (a .911 in 17 games last year, a .910 through 6 this season). If the goalies continue their middling play, non-Miami shot suppression may not be enough to save the OSU.
The Buckeyes need boosts in all areas of play to improve their record, and it’s an uphill climb for the rest of the season.
Miami Redhawks
Key Numbers in Oxford
Overall Record: 8-3-0, NCHC Conference Record: 4-1-0
Goals/Game: 3.18 (17th), Goals Against/Game: 2.00 (10th), Shot Diff/Game: +14.45 (2nd)
High Point: 3-2 Win at North Dakota Nov 14th
Low Point: 3-4 Loss at Minnesota Duluth Nov 1st
What Drives the Redhawks?
Miami is pummeling most opponents in the early going. That shot differential per game is just silly and would be among the highest in the past 3 years if they keep it up. To date, Miami has only been outshot in two games (10/10 at Bowling Green and 11/1 at Minnesota Duluth). Of course, it’s unlikely that every good match will be a drubbing (like the +42 versus Ohio State 10/18 and versus St. Lawrence 10/25). But merely continuing the positive-possessions style puts Miami in a good place going forward.
Miami’s offense is driven by four near-point-per-game offensive motors in the early going. Sean Kuraly (SJ pick), Blake Coleman (NJ), Riley Barber (WSH), and Austin Czarnik (Undrafted) were the top scorers last season and have continued their reign of terror in Oxford this year. For Miami, that performance can come on three separate lines when all forwards are healthy. Having that kind of high-end talent spread across the roster makes the Redhawks difficult to plan against (or in Coach Blasi’s view, makes the matchups all the more lucrative).
Even the goaltending is holding up so far. Junior Jay Williams has seen most of the work, and his .920 SV% offers good reason for the load. Classmate Ryan McKay has the other 3 games on the slate, and his .912 isn’t awful either. A key for Miami will be continued average-to-good play from their netminders. Last year, Williams was an uninspiring .882, a performance that did no favors for his team. Luckily for both goalies, being merely decent should be enough to pick up wins if the Redhawk shot and scoring machines continue.
The most recent game for Miami is perhaps their most impressive to date. North Dakota is a legitimate national threat this year (averaging a +5.70 shot spread and a stout 3.50 goal per game offense so far). Miami came out victors and win the shot battle 30-23. Sean Kuraly was the spark for the Redhawks, grabbing 2 goals and 1 assist to push his team ahead while at Ralph Engelstad.
Expect more victories for Miami going forward if skaters stay healthy and the goalies give decent performances.
Bowling Green Falcons
Key Numbers in Bowling Green
Overall Record: 7-3-1, WCHA Conference Record: 5-1-0
Goals/Game: 3.09 (22nd), Goals Against/Game: 2.27 (17th), Shot Diff/Game: +2.73 (21st)
High Point: 3-2 Win versus Miami Oct 10th
Low Point: 2-5 Loss versus Minnesota State Oct 31
Why Are the Falcons Winning?
BGSU is an unexpected bright point in the NCAA this season. The Falcons only have 1 NHL draft pick, and were an unimpressive 18-15-6 last year (this coming after an even more dire 15-21-5 the year before). What’s pushing this early-year surge?
For Bowling Green, the victories are coming thanks to depth of scoring, excellence in net … and an easy schedule to boost the shooting totals. That first factor is evident thanks to eight players averaging over a half point per game right now. They’re led by an impressive sophomore trio of Kevin Dufour, Matt Pohlkamp, and Pierre-Luc Mercier. All three are over 0.72 points per game, driving the best line on the team.
Goaltending is the next big piece of the puzzle. Primary starter Tommy Burke has a stellar .925 SV% through his 6 games played, and freshman Chris Nell has a .926 in his two appearances. As is the case with goalies, we must be wary of the hot start. There’s no doubt Burke has been good to start. The problem comes in looking at his prior work. That .908 career mark does not suggest he’ll continue these highs forever. The same thing goes for Nell. With only two games under his belt, it’s hard to put much stock in the current results. That’s not to say these kind of SV% can’t continue, merely that we shouldn’t be surprised if they slip.
The real trick for BG is evaluating their seemingly great shot performances. In spite of their big advantage out front (+2.73 per game), the Falcons have been outshot in 5 of their 11 games. Parsing the results significantly dulls the early-year luster. The two biggest showings came against the always-poor Alabama-Huntsville (+21 and +28 in those games). Without those two explosions, Bowling Green holds a -2.11 shot differential per game. That deficit would rank between 35 and 40 nationally.
For the Falcons, the hard part is ahead. Their schedule features 8 games against currently-ranked teams, a big difference from the Alabama contests that boosted their numbers. If BG can somehow harness their first-game excellence against Miami (a win and +14 in shots vs a seriously good team), perhaps the future isn’t so rough.
To overcome the non-Alabama shooting work, BG will need the scoring depth to continue, the super sophomore line to keep up the pace, and their goalies to not slip so far.
(All numbers were current after 11/14/14 games and before 11/15 action. Cover photo by Matt Souva at Ohio State)
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