For the first time in 20 years, the Ontario Hockey League had three teams with three 100+ point producers: Barrie, Erie, and London. Amazingly, these nine players were the only 100 point players in the league. Of those nine, four are eligible for the 2015 Entry Draft, while one isn’t able to be drafted until NEXT season!
The OHL is a very high-scoring league; the top goaltender posted a 92.4% save rate, and only seven goalies were higher than 91%. Only seven TEAMS posted save percentages over 90%. The hockey is fast, explosive, loose and fun, and in the play-offs it’s all amplified. There are tons of dynamic skill players both up front and on the blueline, not afraid to get fancy or creative, while the more rough-and-tumble kids run around like wrecking balls.
Since Paul and I have spent quite a bit of time watching OHL action, we decided to write up play-off preview, with emphasis on the draft eligible players participating. From a more on-topic perspective, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a lot of picks this year, and very well may use them on some of these players, so we’re here to help you figure out who to focus on. Pick your favourites, because one day they may be wearing the Union Blue.
For this piece, I focused on the four Western Conference match-ups. Paul will check in later today with the Eastern Conference preview.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds (1st, 54-12-2, 56.19% Estimated Fenwick Close) vs Saginaw Spirit (8th, 29-36-3, 47.2% Est FenClose)
The Greyhounds are led by an offense featuring three of the league’s top 15 scorers in CAR UFA signing Sergey Tolchinsky (30+65), TBL 2014 1st rounder Anthony DeAngelo (25+64) and 2014 VAN 1st rounder Jared McCann (34+47). 2013 Oilers 1st rounder Darnell Nurse captains the team, which also includes ANA 2014 1st rounder Nick Ritchie, Sabres 2013 2nd rounder Justin Bailey, and goalie Brandon Halverson (2014 NYR 2nd rounder) who, with a 40-5-2 record, was one of only seven OHL goalies with a SV% over 91, at 91.3%.
In addition to their cash crop of high draft picks, Sault Ste Marie have a host of ranked prospects eligible for this year’s draft. Three of those eligibles may end up going as early as the second round. Right winger Blake Speers (57 GP, 24+43), a shifty diminuitive winger, is highest ranked, at 44th among North American skaters according to NHL Central Scouting, and 57th based on TSN scout Craig Button’s list. Defenseman Gustav Bouramann (67. 5+44) is ranked 68th (CSB) and 39th (TSN), and speedy winger Zachary Senyshyn (66. 26+19) is listed at 56th (CSB) and 88th (TSN). Defenseman Colton White (154th CSB, N/R TSN) may also have an outside shot of being drafted in the late rounds.
Saginaw are a bit less fortunate when it comes to high-end talent. San Jose 2014 3rd rounder Dylan Sadowy (65. 42+32) topped the squad with some solid numbers, and draft eligible Mitchell Stephens popped in 22 goals and 48 points, good for second on the team. But then the lack of scoring depth rears it’s head: Despite playing in just 36 games, 2013 CBJ 4th rounder Nick Moutrey is actually still third in scoring on the team – oh, right, he also is doing this even though he got TRADED to North Bay *on January 4*…
The Spirit have three ranked draft eligible players, with the aforementioned Stephens leading the way, ranked 113th by Central Scouting. Artem Artemov (68. 14+18), likely a member of the OHL’s All-Name Team if there were such a thing, and defenseman Marcus Crawford (58. 2+21) have shots to be late round selections, though it’s unlikely.
The Greyhounds are the OHL’s Hamilton Spectator Trophy winners (…that would be “best team in the regular season”), and Saginaw are, well, just happy to be here. The Spirit posted a -59 goal differential (212-271) while the Soo led the OHL in goals for (342 in 68gp, for over 5 goals per game!!!) and allowed the third lowest amount (196) for a whopping +146 differential. Stranger things have happened than the Greyhounds losing this series… but I wouldn’t bank on it.
Prediction: Greyhounds beatdown, move along.
Erie Otters (2nd, 50-14-4, 56.6% Est FenClose) vs Sarnia Sting (7th, 29-32-7, 51% Est FenClose)
Home to 2015’s top ranked draft eligible, Connor McDavid (47. 44+76), 5th ranked Dylan Strome (68. 45+84, OHL scoring leader), and potential 2016 1st rounder Alex DeBrincat (68. 51+53), the Otters are going to be incredibly tough to beat. Even once past those three, Erie will throw 2013 DAL 2nd rounder Remi Elie (28. 16+26), 2013 BUF 3rd rounder Nick Baptiste (41. 26+27), and a defense featuring three 40-pointers (draft eligible Travis Dermott, Kurtis MacDermid and Patrick Murphy) at you. They’re a team built around an offensive explosion from their top six, and good luck trying to shut them down.
Travis Dermott (61. 8+37), one of those 40 point defenders, is a potential second round pick, ranked at 47th by CSB and 78th by TSN. In addition, winger Nick Betz (60. 22+32) is ranked 129th by CSB. He’s a guy who got a lot of time playing on a line with one of McDavid, Strome, DeBrincat or Elie, so he’s been surrounded by superior players but has earned his keep.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Sarnia doesn’t have a single drafted player on their team. They’re a very “score by committee” club, with ten players boasting 30+ points. Point-leader and draft eligible Nikita Korostelev notched a respectable but not overwhelming 24 goals and 53 points. Even with decent offensive depth, the weak point is on the blueline and in net. The Sting allowed 263 goals against (15th in the 20-team league), and had a save percentage of just 88.07% (18th in the league).
The Sting do have some firepower going for them: centre Pavel Zacha (37. 16+18) is ranked 8th by CSB and 17th by TSN. Zacha is a dynamic scoring winger and even though he’s been a bit slow to transition to the junior game, and missed over a month of action with an injury, he still has the potential to take over a game and dominate. Team leader in points Korostelev is also thought of quite highly by scouts, as he’s ranked 41st by CSB and 37th by TSN. These two players alone are worth watching the team for.
Even though Sarnia are eighth in the league in estimated Fenwick Close, they don’t have the defensive chops or the offensive firepower to compete with Erie.
Prediction: Otters!
London Knights (3rd, 40-24-4, 46.8% Est FenClose) vs Kitchener Rangers (6th, 32-26-10, 53.5% Est FenClose)
London joined Barrie and Erie in having three players score 100 points: draft eligible Mitch Marner (63. 44+82), and a pair of ARI 2014 picks: 2nd rounder Christian Dvorak (66. 41+68) and 1st rounder Max Domi (57. 32+70). Beyond that electrifying trio, over-ager Matt Rupert (61. 30+45) is a dangerous secondary option, while 2014 SJS 2nd rounder Julius Bergman (60. 13+29) provides the scoring presence on the blueline.
London’s contributions to the 2015 draft beyond Marner are two defenders. 6’7″ Chris Martinet (64. 7+9) could be a fourth rounder, while Brandon Crawley (64. 3+13) has an outside shot to go in the sixth or seventh rounds.
Kitchener boasts something that not many other OHL teams can: goaltending. 2012 DET 3rd rounder Jake Paterson posted a 92.9% in his 26 games with Kitchener after being acquired from Saginaw early in the season, which would be enough to lead the entire league. On the offensive side of the puck, 2014 ARI 2nd rounder Ryan MacInnis (son of Al!) posted the top numbers, with 25 goals and 62 points in 67 games. Undrafted 19 year old Brandon Robinson (62. 25+29), and now-traded Justin Bailey (35. 22+19) were the team’s only other 20-goal guys. This is a team that wins by grinding out games and relying on goaltending. It’s fairly safe to say that, without Paterson, they’d be well down in the stadings and likely fighting for their play-off lives.
Kitchener is also quite barren of ranked eligibles. Centres Gustaf Franzen (65. 15+19) and David Miller (32. 8+14) are shots to be drafted late, but that’s about where it ends for them.
As mentioned above, Kitchener is stronger defensively than offensively. Their 221 goals allowed is 8th in the league, but with Jake Paterson in net, the goals allowed improved significantly. The Knights boast the league’s fourth best offense, with 289 goals scored, but if Paterson can get hot, it might be lights out for London.
Prediction: Rangers pull it out in a tight series.
Guelph Storm (4th, 38-26-4, 47.5% Est FenClose) vs Owen Sound Attack (5th, 35-24-9, 49.4% Est FenClose)
Guelph is led by 2013 DET 2nd rounder Tyler Bertuzzi. His 96 points (43+55) ranked tenth in the OHL, and he finished 26 points ahead of the team’s second leading scorer, Pius Suter (61. 43+29). 2014 STL 1st rounder Robby Fabbri (30. 25+26) would likely have challenged for team lead had he not been injured during the World Juniors. Fabbri missed three months of OHL action, but since his return on March 1, he’s posted 13 points in eight games, so he should be back to near full speed.
Guelph has just two ranked eligibles on their team, in Suter (ranked 116th) and undersized defender Garrett McFadden (56. 2+16, ranked 193rd). Suter might be one to watch, as he has played quite a bit with Bertuzzi and benefitted greatly from it.
Owen Sound is led in scoring by EDM 4th rounder Kyle Platzer (68. 34+47) and DET 2nd rounder Zach Nastasiuk (64. 35+42), and their back end features a big point producer in COL 2nd rounder Chris Bigras (62. 20+51). Undrafted over-agers Erik Bradford (32. 16+22), Daniel Milne (68. 22+24), and Holden Cook (42. 15+21) provide some “veteran” leadership among the forward group.
Owen Sound is home to a plethora of lower-ranked draft eligibles, which bodes quite well for their immediate future. 168 pound centre Ethan Szypula (59. 10+19) leads the way at 96th. Just behind him at 98th is defenseman Thomas Schemitsch (68. 14+35), a big 6’3″ bruiser with a cannon of a shot. His defensive compadre Tyler Macarthur (63. 0+12) is ranked 135th. Macarthur is a beanpole of a defensive defender, standing at 6’3″ and weighing all of 175 pounds. 22 goalscorer Petrus Palmu (another member of the All-Name Team) is incredibly small (5’5″) but has some bulk on those bones at 175 pounds. If a couple of these younger guys can build off of a strong season and a good play-off run, the Attack could be massive in 2015/16.
Probably the tightest of the Western Conference match-ups on paper, the Guelph and Owen Sound have been dogfighting for play-off position for the last couple weeks. On the last day of the season, Guelph secured home-ice with a big win over Sarnia. Both teams are incredibly close in goalscoring (237 for Guelph, 240 for Owen Sound), but the Attack have an edge on the defensive end, with 211 allowed compared to Guelph’s 237.
Prediction: Storm roll on.
Later on today, Paul Berthelot will be back with your OHL Eastern Conference play-off preview.
– Jeremy Crowe
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