In Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox have had a shut down set up man as dominant as any in the majors. But can they really count on him for an entire season? The Red Sox have Okajima signed through 2008 with an option for 2009. So what can they expect from him over the long term? Well it’s far too early to be predicting what Okajima will be doing in 2009. But that doesn’t mean his future can’t be discussed. The main issue with Okajima seems to be whether his success is due to unfamiliarity or skill.
Everyone wants to know whether he’s a fluke or the real thing.
His stuff certainly doesn’t appear to be an issue. Okajima is almost the opposite of what you’d expect from a dominant reliever. He doesn’t throw hard but he has a nasty large curve. He also has a good change but neither one is his best pitch. The pitch that seems to be giving major league hitters the most trouble is Okajima’s “Okie-Doke”. What exactly is an “Okie-Doke”? It’s a split-fingered change with tight downward break. And it’s for Okajima what the cutter is for Mariano Rivera.
If you simply take a look at Okajima’s numbers, it should be rather evident that the guy has good stuff. He’s struck out 21 batters in 17 innings of work. But even that doesn’t do justice to how dominant this guy looks on the mound. In his 17 innings of work he’s allowed only 7 hits! And even more impressive is that he hasn’t given up a single run since he made his first major league pitch. I don’t think anyone expects him to continue to be quite this dominant the entire season but it’s not as if his success is due to only unfamiliarity. These are major league hitters we’re talking about here, they still get base hits or at least put the ball into play, even against pitchers they haven’t faced before. It’s not as if these teams haven’t had multiple looks at the crafty lefty either.
The Yankees have faced him 5 times and the last time he pitched against them he allowed only one baserunner over 2 innings while striking out 4. Okajima has also made multiple appearances against Texas, Oakland and Toronto. The second time around against each team he’s allowed only one baserunner… via the walk. No one really knows for sure how Okajima will do in the majors. But there is a long history of Japanese relievers finding success in the major leagues, unlike that of Japanese starters.
In fact, the first Japanese player ever to play in the majors was reliever Masanori Murakami. Murakami helped the San Francisco Giants by keeping an ERA under 4 in the midst of a pennant race. As the level of competition in Japanese baseball has increased, Japanese relievers have been able to find even more success at the major league level. Just for reference, here’s a list of some recent Japanese relievers’ numbers before and after their transition to major league baseball.
Akinori Otsuka
Japanese Stats (7 seasons): 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
MLB Stats (3 seasons): 2.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Takashi Saito
Japanese Stats (12 seasons): 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
MLB Stats (1 season): 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Japanese Stats (9 seasons): 3.24 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB Stats (7 seasons) 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
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