Oregon’s guards are electric, their talent incredible. Joseph Young is a star, Jason Calliste a capable reserve. Jonathan Lloyd has put up wonderful numbers (6.3 assists per game) while waiting for point guard Dominic Artis to return to the perimeter. The backcourt is set. It is in the frontcourt that trouble arises.
Oregon basketball only has a handful of problems, and one of them could be severely exposed in the next game. This is a poor rebounding team and that could spell trouble in the near future because Ole Miss is Oregon’s next opponent. The Rebels are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation (21st), grabbing just under 42 per game. Oregon is in the middle of the pack nationally (160th) but against Pacific gave up 17 offensive rebounds (and was outrebounded overall) and 16 against North Dakota. Against the poor shooting Rebels (193rd in the country), the Ducks will need to be especially vigilant on the boards, otherwise they risk giving up far too many second-chance points on put-backs. Ole Miss is a force on the offensive glass with 82 of their 169 rebounds (48%) this season coming on that end.
The Ducks by contrast are the 9th best shooting team in the country, making 52% of their shots. This means that when misses occur, there will be few opportunities to scoop up offensive rebounds because of the Rebels’ superior rebounding. The Rebels are not exceptionally tall and do not have one dominant rebounder but their frontline consists of five players who are 6’8’’ or 6’9’’, led by Demarco Cox (8.2 rebounds per game) and Aaron Jones (7.3 rebounds a game). In order for Oregon to win comfortably, they will need to focus on denying those two and Sebastian Saiz (6.5 a game) rebounding opportunities.
Beyond just this game however, the Ducks need to find someone to help Mike Moser (7.0 rebounds per game) grab rebounds. Waverly Austin may be 6’11’’ but is a poor rebounder (a pitiful 3.0 a game). Guard Damyean Dotson (4.7 boards per game) is the third leading rebounder. Moser has had a 15 rebound game promptly followed by 1 in the next outing. The Ducks need far more consistency at the very least from their best post player in Moser and for guys like Austin and Richard Amardi to keep their hands on misses. Someone needs to step up because Arsalan Kazemi is not walking into Matthew Knight Arena.
The Pac-12 is a good rebounding conference with 4 teams in the top 50 in total rebounds on the season. Oregon ranks 10th in the conference while Arizona—preseason pick to win the conference—ranks 3rd. It appears that in order to win the Pac-12 regular season and post-season tournament, Oregon will need to learn how to rebound better or force more than 12 turnovers per game. Teams can and do have success without being fantastic rebounders, but this weakness could doom Oregon against teams that can match their perimeter players while also being good in the post. The Pac-12 has two teams in particular that meet those criteria in UCLA and Arizona. Oregon will need to go through both of them in order to win trophies and so must improve the rebounding numbers
Ole Miss will provide an excellent litmus test for the Ducks. This is the type of team Oregon will struggle with this year and one that could easily knock them out in the first round of the tournament. The Ducks have better talent but lack muscle in the middle. The most important take-away from the game should be to see if they can deal with a strong rebounding team, the most glaring weakness this year. This should be a win regardless of the rebounding statistics, but in many ways this game should be a good gauge for Oregon’s ability to negate an opponent’s strength and address their own weaknesses. If they are able to show both those things against a decent opponent, then there should be cause for confidence against the other top teams in the Pac-12 and—possibly—in the country.
Oregon has one of the top offenses in the country according to KenPom. Ole Miss averages 82 points per game and like the Ducks will be happy to get out and run. If this is the case, Oregon will need to restrict second-chance opportunities.
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