Olerud Slumping, Inherited Runs Allowed for the Bullpen

Another satisfying win today, and now the Red Sox head out on the road to face the best team in the majors, the Chicago White Sox. We can only hope that we can win this series which would really say a lot. The Red Sox are such a streaky team, and it looks like we’re getting hot. Sure, we played the Devil Rays, but that doesn’t have much bearing on it – we lost Monday, didn’t we? Whether or not the Devil Rays are the best or worst team is secondary to the fact that the Red Sox seem to be clicking a bit more.
I am suddenly not that wild on trading Kevin Millar. He’s had the best batting average on the team (min: 10 AB) since June first, checking in with a .330/.420/.490 line. Also, today while watching the game, I noticed John Olerud’s batting average was a tad low. A bit of investigating revealed that his average stands at .279 after a high of .405 on June 29th. Below is a table of his at-bats from July 1 on:

Ouch, Johnny. An 0-24 skid really puts things in perspective, doesn’t it, folks? Perhaps we should be keeping Kevin Millar.
Onto the bullpen. John Halama pitched one inning today and gave up two runs. His ERA currenly stands at 6.18. He has only pitched seven times from June 18 to July 19 (please note that does not include today…) and in that span, he has a 5.40 ERA, so there’s really nothing hidden about John Halama’s atrociousness. A shame, because before this year, he had great numbers as a reliever. Halama as a reliever (GAME LOG) at least is someone we’d prefer if we had to pick a bad reliever: throwing up blanks and then prone to the big innings. Would you rather he give up a run every time out? I’ll take the ofers with some terrible innings mixed in. Nonetheless, Halama’s grasp on the lefty long-man job has to be tenuous at best. Jeremi Gonzalez’s play this season is impressive, and really, we only need one long-man. If we acquire another reliever as I believe we will, I can see Halama being shafted.
I think that John Halama is in a different frame of mind this year – one of having a job as a reliever. Before, he was always a starter, but never good enough and kept bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. In these times he was in a bullpen, he was pitching for his job! That could explain why he was so good before, because he put his all into getting a good appearance in to get back into the rotation. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be giving his all for us now, but no one is perfect. He could have subconsciously (as this happens often) lost that edge he has a reliever because he’s not fighting for a starting slot.
I also decided to look up each Red Sox reliever to see what their inherited runs allowed look like. Below is the player’s name, their ERA, and their ERA including inherited/bequeathed runs (ERA+IB). This means that every run that they allowed to score that was inherited (already on-base when they entered the game) counts. Also, any run they bequeathed (a run that scored after they left the game, that was their fault for being on base) counts. If they stranded a runner or did not bequeath the runner who eventually scored, their ERA+IB drops. I have eliminated the following people: Scott Cassidy, Lenny DiNardo, Bronson Arroyo, Cla Meredith, and Blaine Neal all for obvious reasons. Chad Bradford should be eliminated too, but … well, he’s not.

I don’t like that it includes bequeathed runs, but whatever. Let’s review.
Chad Bradford has a small sample size. Usually he’s not this bad, because he makes his living coming in high-pressure situations with a righty at the plate, so I’m not worried about it.
LAST YEAR: 4.88 ERA, 4.16 ERA+IB
Alan Embree’s damage to himself was done when he started an inning. Not that his ERA+IB was great, but keep in mind this is including his ERA, so at least he did better with runners on base.
LAST YEAR: 4.82 ERA, 3.64 ERA+IB
Keith Foulke is well… not Keith Foulke. It’s not surprising to see his ERA+IB a tad higher than his regular ERA because closers come into games with runners base. Unlike Embree, Foulke was just consistently bad, period. At least it didn’t skyrocket, but stayed around the same.
LAST YEAR: 2.39 ERA, 2.12 ERA+IB
Jeremi Gonzalez has actually done good overall, and the increase in his ERA+IB is perfectly fine.
LAST YEAR: 7.00 ERA, 7.97 ERA+IB (7 IP)
John Halama… ew.
LAST YEAR: 3.07 ERA, 3.58 ERA+IB
Matt Mantei, while he was around, fortunately stranded more runners from other pitchers than he gave up.
LAST YEAR: 12.66 ERA, 10.80 ERA+IB (10.2 IP)
Mike Myers does his job. His job? To come in with runners on base, the game on the line, and get out a tough lefty. He does it to excellence.
LAST YEAR: 4.30 ERA, 5.09 ERA+IB
Curt Schilling has a 4.50 ERA as a reliever, which isn’t bad considering he hasn’t pitched enough to let that A-Rod 2-run job not hurt him. He has the same ERA+IB because he has not entered the game with runners on base, nor left with runners on.
LAST YEAR: was not a reliever
Mike Timlin I am happy to see. His ERA+IB is only at 2.66. Over the course of the season when we have talked about how good Mike Timlin is, the issue of inherited runners always came up. Someone said they had seen quite a few IR’s always score. I had noticed this about Timlin as well, so was looking forward to seeing what the statistics truly said. Fortunately, while he does give up IRs, he more often than not does not.
LAST YEAR: 4.13 ERA, 4.05 ERA+IB
This four game tilt against the White Sox will include Matt Clement against Mark Buehrle, Tim Wakefield against Jon Garland, Wade Miller opposing Orlando Hernandez, and Bronson Arroyo against our favorite pitcher, Jose Contreras. Terry Francona will attempt to pass Steve O’Neill on career managing wins with the Red Sox during this series. He tied Steve yesterday with 150 in the win over the Devil Rays. He sports the fourth best winning percentage at .589 at a record of 150-106. Grady Little is just behind him at 188-136. Jake Stahl leads the Red Sox with a .621 percentage, at 144-88.
While we’re reminiscing about old names, some of you know that I sponsor Tim Wakefield’s Baseball Reference page. The other day, I was able to add Bobby Doerr’s page to that. Two and counting…
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is my final post until August 7th. August … 7th!? you say. Yes, that long. I’m going on vacation. Four days in Montreal, three days in New Jersey, and one week in Cape Cod. I have set up guest columnists every day for while I am gone. I will do my best to pop in and leave comments and perhaps the occasional short blurb, but I don’t want to take away from the guest writers because they were kind enough to agree to fill in for me, so I won’t prattle on. Here is the lineup:
July 22nd – Dave Isaacs – An A’s fan who writes about the Golden State Warriors at The City (click his name). He has appeared on Fire Brand before.
23rd – Marc Normandin – Marc has also written on here before and as you can see from his link, is a Red Sox fan. He also writes at Beyond The Boxscore.
24th – Alex Dombroff – Boxing may be his hobby, but as he says, his LIFE is the Yankees… his PASSION is the Yankees. Sounds like he’ll anger us quite a bit when he writes…
25th – Mike Flatt – A Red Sox fan as well, he started up the excellent MLB Center.
26th – Mike Flatt – Back for more!
27th – Will Parchman – Will is a Dallas Cowboys fan and a Philadelphia Phillies fan. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say…
28th – Frank Palmeiri – A Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates fan, you can bet he will have plenty to say, either loving the Red Sox or hating the Pirates.
29th – Samara Pearlstein – Frequent visitors have seen her in the comments, she is a Detroit Tigers and Red Sox fan, looking forward to her humor.
30th – Andrew Lipsett – Someone I have linked frequently and comments often. Definitely check him out on the 30th!
31st – David Gassko – A statistics freak, he’s also a Red Sox fan and should be able to tell us (via statistics, of course!) how well the Red Sox did at the trade deadline…
August 1st – David Gassko – … and in case he has more to say, he’ll say it now.
2nd – Samara Pearlstein – She’s back for more!
3rd – Gary Jacobs – Living next door to the Pawtucket Red Sox, and a Red Sox fanatic (and finding time for the Bruins) he’ll have things to talk about, for he’ll be attending the games around now…
4th – Gary Jacobs – and believe me, he has plenty to say.
5th – Mike Hurta – former writer at HPiS, he’s an Astros fanatic and will bring you the latest from Roger and his kiddies. Will the Astros’ resurgence be continuing on the 5th?
6th – Sam Killay – No introduction needed…
I leave you with this, courtesy of Peter Gammons…

The Red Sox and Twins have had preliminary discussions on a trade that would send Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller to Minnesota for Joe Mays and J.C. Romero. If the trade happens, Boston would then use John Olerud and Roberto Petigine at first base, and look around for additional infield help.