If you’ve been following the Olympics, you’ve definitely seen some breathtaking moments thus far in the games. If you’ve been staying up through the wee hours of the night to watch hockey games, you’ve seen some totally awesome stuff. Like Ovechkin choking twice in a shootout and Slovakia upsetting Russia. Given the upset, the door is wide open for the United States to not only get a first round bye in the elimination tournament, but also to get the #1 overall seed.
Just to give you some background, here’s how the Olympic Hockey tournament works: 12 teams are divided into 3 groups with 4 teams in each. Each group goes through “round robin” play (where you play all the other members of your group). A regulation win is worth 3 points, an overtime or shootout win worth 2, and an OT/SO loss worth 1. The tiebreakers are head-to-head and then goal differential. All 12 teams make the elimination portion of the tournament. The 3 group winners AND the next best team all get first round byes.
Here’s how the tournament portion will look:
Currently, the group standings look like this:
Group A
USA – 6 points (+7)
Canada – 5 points (+9)
Switzerland – 1 point (-3)
Norway – 0 points (-13)
Group B
Czech Rep – 6 points (+5)
Russia – 4 points (+5)
Slovakia – 2 points (-1)
Latvia – 0 points (-9)
Group C
Finland – 6 points (+9)
Sweden – 6 points (+4)
Germany – 0 points (-7)
Belarus – 0 points (-6)
Now, here’s the schedule for the weekend:
Saturday: Norway v. Switzerland (3:00), Latvia v. Slovakia (7:30), Germany v. Belarus (11:55)
Sunday: Czech Rep v. Russia (3:00), USA v. Canada (7:30), Sweden v. Finland (11:55)
So why is it important for the US to get a bye? Well, if they get a bye, they only need to win once to get to the medal round. Going into the weekend, here are the standings in the tournament:
1. Finland – 6 points (+9)
2. USA – 6 points (+7)
3. Czech Rep – 6 points (+5)
4. Sweden – 6 points (+4)
5. Canada – 5 points (+9)
6. Russia – 4 points (+5)
Mathematically, these 6 teams are the only ones that can get the 4 byes. Regardless of whether or not the game is won in regulation or overtime/shootout, the winners of the US-Canada and Finland-Sweden games will get byes. Russia needs to beat the Czechs in regulation in order to get a bye. If the game goes to OT, regardless of the winner, the Czechs will win the group and get the automatic bye.
Now, the 4th bye is where things start to get a little tricky. If the US loses to Canada, they can still get a bye, depending on the results of the other games. Let’s look at a few scenarios.
Scenario 1: US beats Canada in regulation
In this, the most ideal scenario, we are guaranteed a bye. If the Finland/Sweden game is won in regulation, goal differential will decide the seeding tiebreaker between the US and the winner. If the Czechs win in regulation, they will also be tied with the US and goal differential will be the tiebreaker. If any of the other Sunday games go to OT, the US will automatically finish ahead of both teams. If BOTH other Sunday games go to OT, the US will be the #1 seed in the bracket.
Scenario 2: US beats Canada in OT/Shootout
Under this scenario, it’s a little more difficult for the US to get the #1 overall seed. In order for that to happen, they would either need Russia to beat the Czechs (in regulation or shootout) or the Czechs to win in OT/shootout AND Sweden to beat Finland in a shootout. Regardless of the other games, if the US beats Canada, they will get a bye.
Scenario 3: US loses in OT/Shootout
This is the easier and more ideal case if the US loses. Obviously, the ideal would be for the US to beat Canada. But for argument’s sake, let’s say we lose in OT. We would wind up with 7 points and a +6 goal differential. Now let’s look at the other games that matter:
Finland/Sweden – If the game ends in regulation, the loser will have 6 points and the US will finish ahead of them. If Finland wins in OT, Sweden and the US will be tied with 7 points but the US will win on goal differential. If Sweden wins in OT, Finland beats the US on goal differential.
Czech Rep/Russia – Things are a little trickier here. If the Czechs win in regulation, the US will be ahead of Russia (7 points to 4 points). If the Russians win in regulation, they will win the group and the US will finish ahead of the Czechs (7 points to 6 points). As we mentioned earlier, if the game goes to OT, the Czechs will win the group. Additionally, if the game goes to OT, the US would have an advantage over the losing team (Russia – US wins 7-5 on points, Czechs – US wins 6-4 on goal differential).
Scenario 4: US loses to Canada in regulation
In this case, it’s a little harder for the US to get the last bye. The tiebreaker will likely be goal differential, which will be impossible to predict until after the games end.
Finland/Sweden – If the game ends in regulation, goal differential will decide the tiebreaker between the US and the losing team. If the game goes to OT, the losing team will have a 1-point advantage on the US.
Czech Rep/Russia – If the Czechs win in regulation or OT, the US will have the advantage over Russia. If Russia wins in regulation, goal differential will decide the tiebreaker between the US and the Czechs. If Russia wins in OT, goal differential will decide the tiebreaker between the US and Russia.
Hopefully you now have a better sense of what the US needs to do to get a bye in the tournament. Obviously, the ideal scenarios would have us finishing either 1st or 2nd because then we wouldn’t have to play any of the top 6 teams until the semi-finals. Either way, the tournament has been full of excitement so far and we don’t doubt the ensuing games will be even more exciting.
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