After the clock struck noon on July 1st and signalled the start of NHL free agency, it was clear as the hours passed by that the Senators had gone all in.
They have gone all in on the idea that Guy Boucher is the going to be the one who can turn this team around.
Maybe that was disappointing for fans who need the instant gratification that comes with seeing your favourite team be linked to players on the first day of the open market. Or maybe it was disappointing to see your favourite team sign a bunch of AHL depth fodder despite the fact that the general manager had promised to do everything within his power to help this perennial playoff bubble team return to the postseason after missing out on a first round appearance and the accompanying playoff revenues that Eugene Melnyk craves. Or maybe you were just disappointed to see the organization miss out on some intriguing players who not only signed some cost-effective contracts, but could have unquestionably helped this team. Or maybe you’ve grown tired of the organization’s act after enduring the many promises from management and ownership that this team would spend at some undisclosed point in the future when the time is right and the team is poised to take a step forward.
Whatever the case, your disappointment stems from the weird juxtaposition in which the Senators struggle to be competitive and reach the postseason on a year-to-year basis, but they have already hamstrung themselves with their budget. They literally cannot afford to add significant pieces to fill holes on the parent roster via free agency or trade because they have stretched themselves too thin in regards to their budget and the prospect depth that has either graduated to the parent roster or been shipped out in recently.
For anyone else who has their finger on the pulse of this franchise, none of this is news.
In the days and weeks leading up to the draft, Pierre Dorion has repeatedly guard this fan base against the likelihood that the Senators would remain quiet in free agency.
“I’ve said from the get go that I’m really comfortable with our top-six. I’m really comfortable with our top-four. I’m really comfortable with our goalie, so I don’t think we’re going to sign a third line player at $7-million. We have to be realistic. Not that I want to be the most optimistic guy, but I like our team. I really like our team. I’ve had many GMs over the course of the last week that say, ‘We really like your team. There’s a lot of assets.’ The reason I’m in a lot of talks is because people want players off our team. People know that we underachieved to a certain point last year. I know it’d be great if we made a big splash, but sometimes if we can just improve from within and not just say that we’re looking to win in three years. We’re looking to win next year. We have to be realistic about where we can go, but if we start by making the playoffs, that’s the first step and then going from there, I think we can do some damage.”
As a budget conscious organization that inevitably has to spend the rest of its available resources tying up Cody Ceci and Mike Hoffman to their respective contract extensions, it’s easy to understand why Dorion is trying to placate the fan base by playing up his team’s roster. He doesn’t have any financial flexibility.
As it currently stands, General Fanager accounts for the Senators having approximately $57.7-million in cap dollars with $60.8-million committed in real dollars to the 2016-17 payroll. Put in contrast with last season when the team committed $65.0-million in cap dollars and $66.9-million in real dollars to payroll, bonuses and AHL call-ups.
Assuming Ottawa’s budget remains the same, it leaves the Senators with approximately $6.0-million to spend on retaining Hoffman and Ceci while providing enough wiggle room to have to account for call-ups and the like. Good luck with that.
The end result is a delicate roster wherein Pierre Dorion can be as comfortable as he wants with his top-six and top-four, but he’s playing with fire when it comes to this team’s depth. This team’s bottom-six and third pairing already leave something to be desired and because of it, it’s easy to understand why Senators assistant general manager Randy Lee tried to light a fire under Thomas Chabot by publicly acknowledging his dissatisfaction with Chabot’s performance during development camp.
Chabot may have a chance to play this season, but with so many of this team’s best prospects being more than a season away from stepping into the lineup, even the mildest of injuries could devastate this roster.
The Senators could desperately use some veteran placeholders on short-term deals to guard against the possibility of injury while concurrently acting as a buffer that allows the team to develop its best prospects in the minors. The trick is: how do you pay for them?
Mike Hoffman Files for Arbitration
Mike Hoffman predictably filed for arbitration ahead of today’s deadline.
In doing so, it means that barring a trade, the Senators’ leading goal scorer will return to the Senators on a one-year deal if he and the organization cannot come to terms on a new contract extension before an arbitrator rules on what salary Hoffman merits for the 2016-17 season.
Under different circumstances, because Hoffman filed for arbitration, the Senators would have the option of choosing a one or two-year term for his award, but because Hoffman is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, any arbitration decision cannot burn one of his years of unrestricted free agency.
Hoffman’s in the driver’s seat with all of the leverage.
Maybe the risk of an injury negatively impacting his numbers could be enough to entice him to take the safety of a contract now, but given what players are getting on the market now and that Hoffman’s been one of the most productive even strength goal scorers over the past two years or that he’s still in his 20’s, unless he’s suffered some kind of Nathan Horton’esque injury, it’s hard to imagine a situation where he doesn’t break the bank.
The only thing that the Senators have going for them is that their organization is the only professional one that Hoffman has known and hopefully, he really likes this city. At least enough to give the Senators a below-market value rate that would be under whatever he could get on the open market next summer.
Other News and Notes:
- McKeen’s Hockey’s chief amateur scout, Grant McCagg – who we just so happened to have on the podcast last week — published his draft grade for the Ottawa Senators. McCagg gave the Sens a ‘B’ letter grade remarking that Ottawa “had a strong start to the draft by picking up a top ten prospect with impressive offensive potential in (Logan) Brown and a skilled sniper in (Jonathan) Dahlen. Having no other picks in the top 100 hurt the overall depth.”
- Senators development camp wrapped up on the weekend and Nick Paul was named the team’s hardest working player.
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