On the Waterfront

CHFF likens the Colts to a character in one of my all time favorite movies

Indianapolis (14-2)

Quality Stats average rank: 10.0

Franchise playoff record: 17-18

Last playoff win: Super Bowl XLI (2006)

Super Bowl champs: 1970, 2006

Symbolic movie character – Terry Malloy from On the Waterfront. Boss man told him to take a dive. Lived to regret it.

Strength: Peyton Manning. Overall efficiency. The future Hall of Fame quarterback pulled one magic victory rabbit out of his hat this year for a team that was not nearly as statistically prolific as its record indicated. The Colts were dominant in no area this year, despite toying with a 16-0 record. That’s actually a credit to the team, in our book. They found ways to wins. Indy was also an extremely efficient team this year: No. 5 in Bendability, No. 6 in Scoreability. This is just a smart, well-coached team that does a lot of little things well.

Weakness: The Defensive Hogs. Momentum. We talked about the critical weakness of the Defensive Hogs in great detail earlier this week. Only the two of the worst teams in football this year, and two of the worst teams in modern history, fielded weaker Defensive Hogs than Indy (Detroit, St. Louis). It’s the worst ranking in any category by any postseason participant. The Colts are average against the run (4.33 YPA) but they can’t pressure the quarterback (8.1% Negative Pass Plays) and they can’t get off the field on third down (opponents convert 45.02% of attempts). In a league where Defensive Hogs have ruled the postseason in recent years, this is not an encouraging sign.

As for momentum, the Colts enter the postseason with less than any team in recent memory: they not only took the foot off the gas entering the playoffs, they purposely slammed on the brakes. As noted before, when they step on the field Jan. 16 or 17 for the divisional playoffs, they’ll have gone an entire month without playing to win (a 35-31 victory over the Jags on Dec. 17).

Overview: The Colts were not a dominant statistical team in 2009. They were a very good team that toughed out one close win after another all year. But then, like Malloy, they took a dive when ordered by the big boss Johnny Friendly. Whether they can regain the magic after a month off will be one of the biggest stories of the 2009 postseason. We fear Colts fans will wake up Feb. 7 to find two strange teams fighting for the title, crying “We coulda been a contenda!”