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As we wind down towards the end of the pre-draft process, perhaps it’s time to look forward to the future.
The future Rich?
Yes, the future. All the way….to the year 2000 (and 16).*
2016 is going to be a funky year in the NFL. Between the current craziness of Phillip Rivers and the Chargers, there will also be players such as Drew Brees and Jay Cutler that are on big-money deals that their teams may have sticker shock for. In Brees’ case it’s the cap number (27.4 million) with the only hope of relief being an extension or trading/cutting the 36 year old record setting QB. For Cutler, if this year doesn’t show more promise than the implosion of 2014, then the new regime will want to get him out of Dodge ASAP.
Others, like RG3, Sam Bradford or Nick Foles will be on teams that may not see them as the future, particularly at the price tag that assurance would entail. However, I’m getting ahead of myself. The first person I want to talk about is the guy Greg Roman first had to work with as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, Alex Smith. Fair warning – this is going to be more or less a mind dump, so if I go off the beaten path, just holler and I’ll try to bring it back.
Bills QB Orton to retire. Say what you will about Orton but 1st winning season in 10 years for #Bills. http://t.co/HLJTJKyapR via @espnnfl
— Steve (@Cllhnstev) December 29, 2014
“What QB situation?” “Exactly.” RT@ProFootballTalk: Bills fear Rex Ryan is leery about quarterback situation http://t.co/BeIiG0BAX2 — Larry Dunn (@LDunnGK) January 8, 2015
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The #Bills had a QB problem, so they traded for Matt Cassel. Now what to do about their quarterback problem?
— Glenn Clark (@GlennClarkRadio) March 4, 2015
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThose are a few samples of the reaction the Bills received with any more during this off-season. This one I found funny, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing Mr. Clark suit up any time soon….
Lol RT @Realrclark25 If the Bills land Clay I’m gonna go play QB in Buffalo. He can play. Give me Sammy, Shady & Clay I’ll move the ball. — Michael Thomas (@MichaelThomas82) March 10, 2015
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Now let’s take a dive into the reaction of Alex Smith not only coming back, but being the starter that Harbaugh and Roman entrusted to teach the offense while the lock out consumed the spring months.
Worthless! RT @NESN Report: Quarterback Alex Smith Re-Signs With 49ers for One Year, $5 Million http://bit.ly/mZzA1m
— Box (@Man_in_a_box) July 27, 2011
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Wow. 49ers QB and former 1st overall pick Alex Smith is now entering his 7th season and still hasn’t grasped his position. #BigTimeBust
— Justin Snyder (@JustinSnyderFL) August 30, 2011
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Fans are a fickle lot – the media reported that they called for David Carr after a 49ers game vs the Eagles in 2010. Heck, even Samurai Mike (Smith’s Head Coach during that season) post firing mentioned that the one thing he learned as head man of the Niners was “you have to have a quarterback”. I will not hide the fact the more I read and reminisce about Smith pre-Harbaugh, the more I think of EJ. I’m sure losing your job to Kyle Orton stings as a professional – but that’s just one guy. Smith lost his job over his career to Trent Dilfer, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Troy Smith and J.T. O’Sullivan. AND eventually Kaepernick post-concussion, in what was Smith’s best season as a pro.
When Smith moved to the Chiefs in 2013, teaming with Reid allowed him to continue in the ways of the West Coast Offense learned under Roman and Harbaugh. He’s still the flag-bearer of “QB Purgatory” with Andy Dalton, but at this point, 15 years of no playoffs makes that a bit more palatable to most of the fanbase. EJ, or Cassel or Taylor (!??) can do that gig if that’s the sole measure of success at the position. If they fail, that would lead to plan B: 2016. Personally, the angst and the excitement to draft a pick at an inferior position, try to (maybe) develop said QB then throw them out when they haven’t “developed” isn’t an option I’m looking forward to. If you as a fan or the Bills as a team are done with a 1st round QB after 14 games, how many does a 2nd rounder get? A third? You get my point.
In 2016 there are going to be between 6 and 13 available QBs between the draft, free agency and team trade. Some are going to be more volatile options than others, as they depend not only on the player/team souring on one another, but the pieces being in place to pounce.
Free Agents:
Nope, No Way Division – Unless they committed a felony (and even then I’m doubtful) these FA QBs will not see the light of day…
Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson. – All of these QBs are going to be with their team (or new team by 2016 in the case of Rivers possibly) and either franchise-tagged (Eli, Wilson and Newton), 5th year optioned (in the case of Tannehill) or just plain extended. So, if you see any of these folks in a conversation to be Bills quarterback, just keep moving.
Might Be Worth It Division – These are players that have warts, but may be better in a change of scene.
RG3 – He’s in many ways “broken” – either via injury, team trust/distrust and the meteoric rise as a rookie that hasn’t followed subsequent years. And “broken” is a catnip few coaches can stay away from. Given Rex’s propensity to want to prove someone can succeed after others have declared them D.O.A. (himself included) I think Robert would be a guy that Rex put his arm around and declares “his guy”. Roman has also had success guiding Alex Smith as I mentioned above, so a 1st rounder that needs some TLC is right in his wheelhouse.
Sam Bradford – Former 1st overall that’s now going to have Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez as competition to run the Kelly offense. If he plays up to his draft slot, he could be a monster in this offense. However, injuries have derailed his career to this point. Signing him in free agency is a gamble that his knees (and shoulder) will last another 5 – 7 years. I’m not a fan of making that bet, though I am a fan of his skillset and his time at Oklahoma. (Insert J.R.’s ‘BOOMER SOONER’)
Nick Foles – Nick will be an interesting case study this year, as he’ll be outside of the “guru zone” he’s been in his NFL career thus far. If he can perform as efficiently as he has under Reid and then Kelly, he won’t make it onto this list. If he’s successful but doesn’t have the talent around him to go far, THAT is where Buffalo can slide in.
and my dark horse…
Brock Osweiler – Zero starts. The definitive developmental qb that’s sat behind an entrenched starter. Can he be a 6’7″ Hassebeck or will he be the next guy to just sit behind an established guy that just…is there? I think that he might be a good gamble, especially since he’s one of the few modern 2nd/3rd rounders to have time to sit and develop. Should he come free, the big question would be whether he follows his former staff (Fox and co in Chicago), depending on if they get rid of their starter (more on that too).
Trades:
Does the team like him? Trades:
Jay Cutler – Personally, I think this is a non-starter with Aaron Kromer as o-line coach, as Cutler had issues with protections (allegedly) and well…Kromer handles the protections?
However, if the new regime in Chicago deems that Jay is now to join his third team as quarterback, I’m sure the Bills will at least listen. The size of his contract would demand a chat on how to get it to a more manageable say 12 million with escalators that bring it back up to 15-16 million, but will Cutler go for that? A part of me would like Jake in Buffalo (as well as the player below) for the hot takes to reach a near nuclear level.
Johnny Manziel – Oh sweet baby J yes. If the Browns are tired of Johnny “artist formerly known as Football” Manziel, I would be very interested to see where the Bills brass view him. If Manuel can be dumped with the bathwater after 14 games, where does a team view Manziel after 5+ quarters? Putting him in a Roman-run system would be intriguing, as well as the takes on Johnny Football, Evander Kane, Mario Williams and Jack Eichel all being in the same media petri dish. So. Much. Chaos.
Are they still a fit? Trades:
Drew Brees – Cap number. Age. Drew is going to be in the weird spot of surrounded by a team strapped with cap issues, but at the time attempting to stay competitive in the NFC South. He has done nothing to express a desire to leave, but rumblings have surfaced from national writers that the Saints are exploring the exit strategy with their marquee QB. As we’re seeing with Rivers, I’ll say if there is fire with the smoke the Bills should explore.
Colin Kaepernick – With the team-friendly deal Colin signed, he really can be traded or cut at this point with minimal blowback – much like the Bucs, the 49ers elected to go with a year to year pay-as-you-go setup. If the team feels that Colin has a little too much of the ‘Harbaugh way’ in him and they hover around 7-8 wins again, I can see them trying to forge a new start with a quarterback that buys in to the new regime. As with Drew, this will bear watching over the next year – particularly because of the Roman / Kaep relationship.
The Draft: Just with senior candidates, you’re looking at Connor Cook (Mich St), Dak Prescott (Miss St), Trevone Boykin (TCU), Kevin Hogan (Stanford) and Cody Kessler (USC). I’m a big Cook fan, but getting to him may be tough depending on the way the success the Bills have in 2015. But, if any of these players are viewed by Buffalo as “The Guy”, if Whaley was willing to go all-in on Watkins, I’d hope he’d do the same for his QB.
Really, when you come down to it, 2016 shapes up to be less…mind numbing an option to go all in to find a QB should EJ/Cassel/Taylor falter.
As always, this is One Fan(n)’s Opinion. If you think all of these QBs stink and should be fired into the sun, hit me up @RDotDeuce. We’ll work it out. Except for the below….
*If you don’t like Conan’s “in the year 2000” skit series, I’ll see you in Temecula.
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