http://gty.im/491884538
Warning: Tons of Stats and some snark ahead…
While the hub-hub of Sammy trying to avoid the Silicon-Valley esque valuation crisis of being labeled a ‘bust’ too early was blowing up on Twitter, I was already knee deep in statistics trying to provide you, the Buffalo Wins reader ammunition for the next time you’re told that a backup quarterback is essential to a team “because experience” or “because wins”. To do that, I’ve looked at all 32 teams and their backup situations courtesy of Pro Football Reference for the stats and Ourlads for the depth charts and will leave you to decide how integral said player is in the long run. Note that the record in parenthesis by the player’s name is their record in last 16 (if possible) games played.
I want you to get what would typically be footnotes of an article first, to see for yourself how good (or bad) these situations are. Then I’ll throw my .02 cents in.
AFC
East:
Buffalo:EJ Manuel (6-9)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FManuEJ00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
New England:Jimmy Garoppolo(0-0)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FG%2FGaroJi00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
New York:Geno Smith(5-11)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FS%2FSmitGe00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Miami:Matt Moore(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FMoorMa01.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
West:
Denver:Brock Osweiler(0-0)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FO%2FOsweBr00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
San Diego:Kellen Clemens(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FC%2FClemKe00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Kansas City:Chase Daniel(1-1)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FD%2FDaniCh00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Oakland:Matt McGloin(1-5)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FMcGlMa01.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
North:
Pittsburgh:Mike Vick(4-12)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FV%2FVickMi00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Baltimore:Matt Schaub(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FS%2FSchaMa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Cleveland:Johnny Manziel(1-2)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FManzJo00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Cincinnati:AJ McCarron(0-0) No stats to note.
South:
Indianapolis:Matt Hasselbeck(9-7)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FH%2FHassMa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Tennessee:Zach Mettenberger(0-6)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FMettZa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Jacksonville:Chad Henne(4-12)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FH%2FHennCh01.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Houston:Ryan Mallett(2-4)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FMallRy00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
NFC
East:
New York:Ryan Nassib(0-0)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FN%2FNassRy00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Philadelphia:Mark Sanchez(7-9)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FS%2FSancMa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Dallas:Matt Cassel(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FC%2FCassMa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
West:
Seattle:Tarvaris Jackson(7-9)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FJ%2FJackTa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
San Fransisco:Blaine Gabbert(2-14)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FG%2FGabbBl00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Arizona:Drew Stanton(7-5)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FS%2FStanDr00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
St. Louis:Case Keenum(2-8)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FK%2FKeenCa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
North:
Chicago:Jimmy Clausen(1-11)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FC%2FClauJi00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Detroit:Dan Orlovsky(2-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FO%2FOrloDa00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Green Bay:Scott Tolzien(0-1-1)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FT%2FTolzSc00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Minnesota:Shaun Hill(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FH%2FHillSh00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
South:
New Orleans:Luke McCown(2-8)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FM%2FMcCoLu00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Tampa Bay:Mike Glennon(5-11)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FG%2FGlenMi00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Carolina:Derek Anderson(6-10)http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=pfr&url=%2Fplayers%2FA%2FAndeDe00.htm&div=div_passing&del_col=2,4,5,14,16,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31
Atlanta:Sean Renfree(0-0) No stats of note.
So Now What?
- The average wins for each of these 32 QBs over their last 16 starts is 3.4.
- 15 of the 32 QBs have won fewer than 2 games.
- 5 of the 32 QBs have never started an NFL game.
- 14 of the 32 QBs have more TDs than INTs for their careers.
- EJ Manuel’s 6 wins over his last 15 starts are in a 5-way tie for the 4th most wins over the last 16 starts by the backup QBs.
- Only 2 QBs on this list are above .500 in their last 16 starts.
Now that you’ve seen all of the backups currently waiting to jump into the fray in the NFL, I for one am not convinced that the Matt Cassels of the NFL are as helpful as it’s claimed to be. Looking at this list, the most successful backup QBs by record are:
- Matt Hasselbeck (9-7)
- Drew Stanton (7-5)
- Tarvaris Jackson/Mark Sanchez (7-9)
So you’re looking at an ex Super Bowl starting QB (who got hosed on a crazy ref call and I’m not bitter about that at all and it’s not like he was my favorite non-Bills QB other than Manning at the time, NOPE) that was eventually run off said team, then Tennessee and settled as backup to Andrew Luck; A quarterback in Stanton that bounced from team to team and is now under the tutelage of Bruce Arians in Arizona; and QBs in Tarvaris Jackson and Mark Sanchez that are viewed as a lucky charm for coin flips by their team (Jackson) and the Sanchize, he of #JokesForDays – the butt fumble being the biggest one of all.
What about Matt Cassel, he of the pedigree that demands he remains as star-backup and vet of choice? Look at his 6-10 record and his stats and fits right in with:
- Shaun Hill
- Kellen Clemens
- Matt Schaub
- Matt Moore
Other than the weirdness that so many mediocre NFL backup quarterbacks are named Matt – I’d say “eh, okay” if any of those guys came in. I wouldn’t lose my mind as the case was a few weeks ago with some of the media and I certainly would not make this a campaign to prove that Matt flippin’ Cassel is the end-all be-all of backup quarterbacking. Prior to his run with the Colts (who run a similar offense to the Bills mind you) how many people would have wanted Matt Hasselbeck as their backup quarterback? Particularly behind the work-in-progress line the Bills are running with? What don’t you get from Manuel and his 6-9 record that you would with Cassel? How closely could Cassel approximate the offense run by Tyrod compared to EJ? Matt Cassel’s biggest distinction is his indistinguishable nature; he has yet to have that damning mistake as a quarterback; there are no butt fumbles, no Watt pick-6’s, no walk off pick-6’s like Sanchez or Manuel or Schaub; there isn’t a dearth of hope that he’ll get better or an abundance of faith he will “and team x should trade for him” like there is with Blaine Gabbert or Zach Mettenberger (or RG-III!!!). He is essentially seen as ok simply because he’s drawn a paycheck in a risk-averse NFL culture for 11 seasons.
At least with a Manziel (get better Johnny, c’mon) or a Garoppolo or a McCarron there’s this hint of unknown that may lead to you think “maybe he could hold down the fort?”. You know what you get with Cassel. Heck I’m more excited to see if the development EJ showed in pre-season is carrying over into the regular season than to see Cassel trot out there and stand around waiting to be hit.
[Note: This article was written prior to yesterday’s game, with the exception of the paragraph below – Rich]
Now that I’ve seen EJ, I’m still fine with him as the backup quarterback. As I mentioned in my review of the game, while I was encouraged by his development at times in training camp and in pre-season games, when it came to real bullets, EJ’s warts shone bright. But, having said that they still scored 21 points without the aid of the defense to do so, so I must say that is a yeoman’s effort for a backup and one I’ll rightly…not praise…more likely accept? But, I will not accept any narrative that start with “But Matt Cassel…” and ends with “…and that’s why Whaley sucks.” I have my issues with some of the moves made the last two years at times, but on the whole I cannot find fault with the talent or construction of the team. I will find fault in the leaks however.
Whomever from coaching and the “lifers” in the front office that are leaking dissent to the News or to certain reporters are clear as crystal in seeking to get their agendas pushed. And those that are getting these tidbits, these morsels of mistrust are only going to get louder as losses pile up. For now, Rex is safe, as it seems someone at his level (coaching) is leaking at each turn pieces of personnel strife that fits a “rogue gm” narrative. But then you’ll get the double down of “we didn’t want this guy/why is Whaley doing x” follow up articles that got their loudest when it seemed that Polian would come back and now are mere echoes attempting to do what? Get Whaley fired? It’s stupid, it’s brain numbing and it’s going to end poorly for all involved until the Pegulas clean house of the rats on board the ship.
But I digress.
I cannot get excited for such a player on or off my team – he simply exists, nothing more. As with almost every team, once my starting QB goes down I assume things aren’t going to go well until he gets back. Sure, we can talk about wanting a backup to get you to .500 through the games they play but let’s be honest – how many games is that? How many games will you play that backup before the little knocks that made him a backup show up again? Whether it’s Cassel, Manuel or Mark Rypien, it’ll happen.
After doing the research and chatting with Joe, I will no longer be one of those guys that clamor for the vet backup. Sure the idea of a veteran that spins yarns of how they started and won this game and that can be nice, but only guy that can talk about success, true success as a starter prior to his downfall to backup is going to play the Patriots this week, not on a bye week in Dallas. Unless it’s that sort of guy, anyone you have as #2 is suspect in some way.
My sole conclusion Bills-wise from this in terms of the MSM question on keeping Cassel? Maybe the Bills traded for the wrong Matt this off-season.
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