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Run and stop the run. Ground and pound. Pass to score, run to win. Take your pick of football cliches and at the end of them you get to those two points: if you can play defense and run the ball you can get to the playoffs! We’re going to take a look at that and see how true it’s been for the last five years in the NFL. And from there, is it a fair assumption that the “Ryan Plan” is an effective one?
(Note: for this I looked at Rushing yardage on the offensive side and on defense, scoring. I thought that painted a better picture defensively than *just* yardage. If you wanna fight me on that, I get it.)
2010: Only two cases in this year to look at. Only one is a true case for Rex however…
New York Jets (4th overall in rushing / 6th in scoring defense)- Well this is certainly good for Rex’s theory – his team is the first to fit the mold. Teaming Sanchez with a great defense and punishing run game allowed them to get to the playoffs, ultimately falling short in the AFC Championship Game. Having the 22nd ranked passing offense punctuates that. On the way they wound up beating…
New England Patriots (9th overall in rushing / 8th in scoring defense)- Losing to the Jets in the divisional round as the AFC 1-seed is one of the few one and done season’s in Tom Brady’s repertoire, so it’s even more of a feather in the cap of Rex and company. Belichick, for having a future hall of famer at QB is pretty hell bent on sticking to this method, coupled with an efficient passing game (11th in passing that year). Brady ain’t walking into Buffalo’s front door (I think) so while the method worked, the QB at the helm also was a big contributor to the team.
Top 10 in both that didn’t make Playoffs in 2010: Tampa Bay (8th in Rushing / 9th in Scoring Defense).
2011: Two solid cases here – a young team with a “questionable” QB and the “Is he elite” Joe Flacco boys…
San Francisco 49ers (8th overall in rushing / 2nd in overall team defense)- A rejuvenated Alex Smith was in a Greg Roman Offense and went 13-3 with a (stop if you’ve heard this before) a strong run game with Gore and a great defense. The parts fit, so Rex gets double check marks for hiring Roman as his OC – particularly considering a 13-3 record with the 29th ranked passing game.
Baltimore Ravens (10th overall in rushing / 3rd in overall team defense)- Lee Evans needed a catch. Cundiff needed a kick. But before all of that, the Ravens made the playoffs with an efficient offense and more than competent defense. No holes here in the game, especially considering the Ravens were 19th in passing, while the Bills were 15th.
Top 10 in both that didn’t make Playoffs in 2011: Philadelphia (5th in Rushing / 10th in Scoring Defense).
2012 – Three good examples and Tom Brady.
Seattle Seahawks (3rd overall in rushing / 1st in scoring defense)- Both the Seahawks and 49ers followed the same blueprint, regardless of the QB: Support him with a commitment to the run game and let the defense dictate the game with violent intent. Wilson came into the league a house of fire (JR-ism engaged) with the read-option and Marshawn ran for 1590 yards and 11 TDs. Their passing game was 27th that year (Buffalo was 25th in Chan’s swan song), and I’m going to spoil it for you on defense – the Seahawks go number one overall 3 years running. Rex might not get THERE, but top ten every year? I can see that.
San Francisco 49ers (4th overall in rushing / 2nd in scoring defense)- Ditto as Seahawks. Only with 49ers you also mixed in both Kaepernick and Smith this year, so run game helped vet and helped make 2nd year QB more dangerous, in fact in the passing game they improved to 23rd. And defensively they didn’t miss a beat. Again, another doable option.
New England Patriots (7th overall in rushing / 9th in scoring defense)- Brady makes the world go ’round, but the defense was very good and their cavalcade of running backs did their job. Can’t count ’em because of Brady, obviously.
Houston Texans (8th overall in rushing / 10th in scoring defense)- Matt Schaub picked this year to be as mistake-free as possible and quite dynamic in pass game (11th yardage-wise). Arian Foster had 1400 yards and 15 touchdowns. Oh and JJ Watt and his friends were quite busy. Very doable with the current team getting a few FAs / draftees to fill some gaps if the QB has a decided uptick in production.
Top 10 in both that didn’t make Playoffs in 2012: Chicago (10th in Rushing / 3rd in Scoring Defense).
2013 – Brady and 3 good ‘uns again.
Seattle Seahawks (4th overall in rushing / 1st in scoring defense)- We’ve gone over this so I won’t waste your time reading more than you have to – and if you were curious, they had the 26th ranked passing offense… They can do this.
San Francisco 49ers (3rd overall in rushing / 3rd in scoring defense)- See the above. Kaepernick and this run game wasn’t fair that year, as the read-option and Frank Gore were a potent mixture. 30th in passing, so God bless you Greg Roman. Defensively, even in the meat grinder of the NFC West they still made their hay.
New England Patriots (9th overall in rushing / 10th in scoring defense)- Brady again takes you out of the “they can do this” argument.
Kansas City Chiefs (10th overall in rushing / 5th in scoring defense)- Hey, it’s Alex Smith again with a solid run game (24th ranked pass game though…) and great defense! And playoff bound to boot? Yup, this is a blueprint that fits.
Top 10 in both that didn’t make Playoffs in 2013: NONE.
2014- Two good examples this year, which should have won Superbowl / been in Superbowl if not for a bad QB decision….
Seattle Seahawks (1st overall in rushing / 1st in scoring defense)- Yeah. Kinda should’ve stuck with that in the SUPERBOWL guys. I’m not bitter at all. 27th in passing to boot.
Baltimore Ravens (8th overall in rushing / 6th in scoring defense)- Another frequent flyer on this list. Maintaining a commitment to the run regardless of the back allowed Baltimore to play well with Joe Flacco’s ability to drive the ball down the field (13th in passing) and the defense nearly made the AFC Championship game without any of their top corners available.
Top 10 in both that didn’t make Playoffs in 2014: San Francisco (4th overall in rushing / 10th in scoring defense), Houston (4th overall in rushing / 7th in scoring defense) and Kansas City (10th overall in rushing / 2nd in scoring defense).
So, there were in 5 years of playoffs 11 teams (several repeats) that made the playoffs as a run / play defense based squad. The Ravens and Seahawks (followed closely by the 49ers/Texans/Chiefs/Jets) are great examples of building around your QB with an outstanding run game and a punishing defense that leads to playoff football.
Flacco and Wilson are great quarterbacks in my opinion – and are allowed to “be great” by having offenses cater to their strengths and minimize any weaknesses they have in their game, perceived or proven to be so. That’s how it should be, but sadly rarely how it is.
Thoughts? Do you think the Bills can follow this path successfully or is it just a pipe dream? Leave a comment or get @RDotDeuce on twitter and let me know. #1FO
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