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As we step away from the combine and towards the opening of NFL Free Agency on March 10th, Joe’s tasked me to review the needs the Bills have and a few candidates for each need. Before I get into that, I want to give a primer on the positions of need I’ve identified for this series AND some things we all need to deal with as Bills fans going forward. First, the positions we’ll cover are: FB/TE, QB, Guard, Right Tackle and Running Back on offense; 1 Technique/Nose Tackle, Pass Rusher and Safety depth on defense.
Now, to the manifesto…
Similar to the tried and true “demandments” of Hulk Hogan, the Bills have done a great job over the course of the last 20 years to hit fans with tried and true tropes:
- Because of the big money games being played by teams in the “big cities” the Bills can’t keep up with free agency and have to play things smart with cash to cap;
- The Bills have a standard of ‘character’ that supercedes that of the average NFL team;
- Being from Buffalo, having players that play with grit and verve and are plucky dudes is a great thing and ultimately more important than talented players that have ‘antics’;
- No coach wants to coach in Buffalo, so whatever re-tread or never-heard-of that agrees must be from on high, sent as a beacon to get the team out of the morass of inconsequence;
That changed the day the Pegula family bought the Bills and then subsequently have hired Rex Ryan.
(Doug, seriously, I cannot thank you enough.)
As of now and going throughout this series I am operating with the following in mind:
- The Pegulas are billionaires. BIG B. And have joked in past that if they needed more money for Sabres they would “drill another well”. There is no free agent from a monetary standpoint that is unattainable. From a cap standpoint they don’t have to worry about bigger signing bonuses and the pro-ration that they require, unless they don’t anticipate that person lasting through 75% of the contract (more on that in a bit). So any marquee guy you think of? Yeah, they can swing it – unless that person doesn’t want to play in Buffalo!
- Signing Rex has removed the “who wants to coach here” tag in addition to the aforementioned Pegula-bucks. Rex now has the second largest NFL staff and as above had no limits to the money spent on said staff, which is an underrated aspect of a team building process. [There is no coaching salary cap.] Again, thanks a bunch Doug!
- Football character has always been (to coaches/GMs at least) a different animal than day-to-day character. From here on out, the Bills seem to be willing to give second chances to players that in prior years fans at times took pride in not signing/courting. No longer.
- Plucky stories of UDFAs or players that came out of nowhere are going to be nice, but that isn’t, nor should it be the end-all, be-all of Buffalo Bills players. If you have a hard time giving 23 year olds a break playing a sport because they’re a first round pick as opposed to the undrafted that’s “just like us” the problem lies with you my friend, not the player.
- Finally, money. As I mentioned above the idea of ‘cash to cap’ was a mechanism that allowed for the team to be viable to the Wilson family (read: profitable) while also being competitive on the football field. At times the Cowboys or Washington’s team were used as examples of the cap hell bogeymen, teams that spent wantonly and paid the piper later. There are smart teams that can do that too. I just listened to the Ravens presser in fact – during which their owner stated they’d rather be the team with limited cap room competing for championships and jealous during off-season of the teams with cap space that do nothing in post-season. Let’s get there, right?!
That point leads me to another thing you’ll see in this article series – I will try and guess based on what systems the Bills are running on offense and defense player fits, but I’m not a believer in the “slotting” that’s currently being sold to fans by at times teams and media. To say a player is great to get blown up on their rookie contract but dear God don’t pay them after is a bit much for me. You’ll see this in particular when I close my offensive FA articles with the running back position. Conversely, from interviews with Bills brass we know they don’t like to pay 2 safeties, so I keep that in mind, as an example. You’ve been warned.
Final note – in every position I’m going to list the system need for it and the cap dollars as of each article that could be allocated to said position. Since this is the first post on offensive needs, I’m looking at the established 49er/Stanford power west coast offense style of play Roman has used in the aforementioned stops and observed in hybrid form on the Baltimore Ravens with Rex under Brian Billick. This offense makes sense because it isn’t QB-dependent and until the QB emerges it keeps the reads manageable and the run game itself will control the clock. Aggression isn’t going to be removed either – the run game will allow for play-action passes to be intermediate / deep and for those reads to be a lot easier with a trailing db as opposed to one that’s in phase (step for step) with your receivers. That’s a “well duh Rich doesn’t everyone do that?” and yes, they do. But now with the multiplicity and shifting that mister Roman brings to the table.
From a run standpoint, the 49ers/Cardinal have been counter / power / wham* based run team, with option principles added to complement any of their QBs with wheels. Rob Quinn just put out some good stuff on this on the Bills Mafia site, so I’m not going to re-invent the wheel here.
Counter (w/SEVEN OL and TWO TE’s? I may have just fainted):https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js
Power:https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js
Wham*:https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js
*[Rich Note – I LOVE THE WHAM (or trap) PLAY. From the first time I learned how to trap in football in 8th grade to coaching high school kids now, nothing gets me giddier than a good trap block. Essentially you’re tricking the best defensive lineman on a team into thinking he has a free shot at your RB or QB and “WHAM” (ergo the block name) you trap him with a FB/G/TE/H-Back. I was never the best when it came to down blocking – stepping down (ergo the name) and blocking a big ole DT next to me. But if you had me on the opposite side and I knew I’m going to trap the guy, I was great at getting around and getting that dude down or out of the way. This is a key play for the 49ers and I’m going to say right now it’ll be a key play with the Bills. Carry on…]
Position: Fullbacks
System Need: High
Typical Cost: 1-3 million per year.
When I first talked about doing this series with Joe, I wanted to do a post solely on fullbacks. Joe wisely suggested I expand it out to tight ends as well and I thank him for it (Joe’s note: No one cares about fullbacks except Rob Quinn and Rich). In the Roman offense, the fullback is one of the most important pieces in both the run and passing games and they work hand-in-hand with the tight ends. Pop Quiz, Jack – who led the league in snaps used for fullbacks last year? YUP – the 49ers with 473 snaps. That equated to 43% of their snaps, matched only by 42.8% FB (467 snaps) usage by the Ravens. With the movement and angles the run game needs in this offense, the fullback has to be smart enough to hit the MDM (most dangerous man) in the flow of the play, look for work if he neutralizes said man and be ready in the pass game for the outlet or wheel reception.
The ideal player is the current fullback for the Niners, Bruce Miller. A converted defensive player, Bruce not only stones LBs in the run game, but is a nice outlet on playaction as well as flat/wheel routes, averaging 16.5 receptions a season.
https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js
In Buffalo there is no player currently on the roster that can approximate that successfully consistently. To Buffalo’s advantage many teams have phased the fullback out of their offense, which means there will be several options that can fit the bill in FA. So, time to go shoppin’….
Potential Targets:
Jerome Felton, Vikings – When you’re the man who helped block for Adrian Peterson’s 2,000 yard adventure and you’re getting phased out by an incoming offensive coordinator, you opt out. That’s exactly what Jerome did, leaving 2.5 million non-guaranteed salary on the table to sell his wares on the open market. Going from 304 snaps in 2013 to 175 in 2014 was enough for Felton to see the writing on the wall and get out while the getting is good. At age 28 and with the fullback market being a bit depressed at present this would be another opportunity for Buffalo to invest in a talented player that will bring the hammer of Thor upon any who stand in his back’s path.
Henry Hynoski, Giants – After an IR’d 2013, many Giants fans thought that the days of the “Hynocerus” were going to be over, with his replacement, John Conner doing an admirable job in his stead. That wasn’t to be be however – Conner was cut and Henry had a great 2014 paving the way for the Giants run game. Hynoski only had 209 snaps, but posted a +6.2 grade for blocking on Pro Football Focus. At age 26 he’s a good get and as a Pitt alum I must freely own the fact I enjoyed watching him demolish LB’s in college, so seeing him do it for the Bills would be quite fun.
John Kuhn, Packers – Kuhn is the elder statesman of the group at 32 years old – but still does a good job. Mainly known for short yardage and his blocking prowess (+3.4 PFF), as a receiver he leaves a little bit to be desired. Kuhn might have a bit more mileage on him than the previous backs, but his ability to reset in the pass game also allows someone like Fred Jackson to not always be relegated as the 3rd down blocking back, which eases his load as well.
John Conner, Jets – A player that Rex is already familiar with, Conner was re-signed for his second go around with the Jets after an injury to their presumed starter in the pre-season. Conner had a -0.7 PFF rating blocking this year and some of that was the combination of issues with the line. However, the “Terminator” also may be more name than game at this point (even at age 27!) so I would say he would be my fourth choice in terms of available players.
Tight Ends
System Need: High
Typical Cost: 4-10 million per year
Tight ends fit many roles in this power offense. Receiving outlets like Vernon Davis are the pretty boys – but you need your dirty work to be done as well. Guys like Delanie Walker or more recently Vance McDonald are typically moved around the offense, sometimes a wing, sometimes in motion.
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Chandler tried (God bless him) on many plays to do that when detached from the line of scrimmage, but it was more of a “you tried” deal. The Bills need that job done or nothing works from a counter / wham / power (+option) standpoint. The ideal player for Roman’s system is threefold – an on-the-line, do-it-all TE (the Y) Vernon Davis, the jack-of-all trades (H) in terms of receiving and backfield work in Miller / Vance McDonald / Delanie Walker and the “dirty work guy” (U) that will come in to annihilate when in their bigger sets (BRUTUS and BULLY) – which has been typically an offensive lineman or anyone other than Vernon I’ve mentioned really, Vance being in my film review the most likely person.
Potential Targets:
Julius Thomas, Broncos – The alpha, A-numero uno free agent at the tight end position this year. While he won’t approximate all of Vernon Davis’ ability (or effort) in the run game, Julius is a seam-stretching dynamo that will allow the quarterback to be great down the middle of the field. He’s going to cost on the higher end of the spectrum, most likely between 7 – 10 million a year. If the Bills think the quarterback will get him the ball it would not be a bad investment. However, given the system Roman wants to employ, a combination of the below players may on the whole meet or exceed his production estimate in Buffalo…
Virgil Green, Broncos – Starting with Virgil. No, not the valet to Ted Dibiase, the dirty work valet to Julius. To the Broncos, Virgil is their “rock” and when they need to get a key run to succeed, he’s on the field. That’s amazing considering he came into the league as a receiving tight end that would be a work in progress. Well the work is done and he can be a force for a team. I’m making the projection here based on seeing him rock dudes in the run game and his occasional routes with Denver (23 rec, 206 yards and one TD to his name) but this is what you’re getting if you sign Virgil:
“When I was at Nevada, I started to bulk up in the weight room. I worked extremely hard to become the best pound-for-pound lifter,” Green said. “But at the end of day, regardless of my weight, it’s about coming off the ball and hitting the guy across from me. That’s what is going on in my head. I don’t care how big the guy is. It means nothing. I have to impose my will.”
Worst case, he’ll fill the role Lee Smith (I love you Lee!) had, without the penalties or the random fights every other game. If I’m right though, you’ll have a great combination of the blocking ability of Bruce Miller with the seam threat of a Davis at maybe half the cost.
Charles Clay, Dolphins – Rumors have been swirling the last few days regarding the Bills’ interest in the Miami tight end and for good reason. Rob Quinn was the first person to mention him as a fit to me and after watching him I can see why. Clay is just smooth – in his routes, in his blocking and in his yards after the catch. A natural wheel/seam fit in this offense, Charles can not only weaken a rival with his signing, he’d also bring the Walker role in full to Buffalo. Not bad at all.
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Gresham’s career has been one of unrealized potential. The 26 year old has averaged 56 receptions, 544 yards and 4.8 (call it 5) TDs a season and has been…a guy. Many Bengals fans seem to be ambivalent about his departure, which is never a good thing. I liken him to a younger Chandler – and that’s not really an improvement, right?
Jordan Cameron, Browns – Cameron’s 2014 is a tough one to evaluate. On one hand, he has the talent and ability necessary to thrive as a tight end in the right scheme. However, the concussions (emphasis on multiple) lead to a question of how much you’d like to trust the player and his skill vs how long can his body hold up? We’ve seen the slow decline of a Wes Welker as concussions coupled with age crept in; Is Cameron (even at the age of 26) too hurt to help?
Alrighty, that’s it for this post. Look for my next one to be on quarterbacks. Spoiler alert: not a lot of options!
Think any of these guys stink? Am I onto something? Hit me up @RDotDeuce on twitter! #1FO
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