If you’re of the mindset that you can’t think about the off-season until this Spring, or at the very least until the Bills are officially eliminated from playoff contention – bookmark this bad boy or take a look at any of my other offerings this week (there’ll be a few). For those of you, like me, that need to not think about the current product and instead look at what’s coming down the road, welcome.
This isn’t going to be an off-season of hope and proclamations one would think. With the questions currently being raised about Rex, the defense and the at times maddening timing the offense breaks down (not to mention the meh special teams play) upgrades have to be found, while also retaining some of the cogs that have been effective thus far. I’m not going to delve too much into the potential free agents out there for the Bills – too soon to tell – but I am going to talk about their impending free agents. But before that, I’ve got to prep you all for some hard cuts that are a-coming.
Mad Money
Looking at the Bills 2015 Cap, they have 7.964 million dollars remaining (credit: Spotrac.com). Taking into account the 2016 cap is anticipated to be somewhere between 150-155 million, I’m going to with the expertise of Mr. Joel Corry, who has experience in the field (h/t to Rob Quinn for the heads up):
Assuming a $153.4M 2016 salary cap, Raiders will need to spend $144M next year to meet the 89% 4-year minimum. https://t.co/fUwZ7MgPKa
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) December 10, 2015
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With the rollover, the Bills will have 161.3 million as a max, with 149.5 million accounted for with the 46 2016 salaries on the books. So, going into free agency the Bills, right now would have 11.8 million in space. While ESPN’s local version of this has been sky-is-falling, taking out even a modest 3 million for draft picks still would leave only 8 million to get the business the Bills need done.
As of this morning, here are the Bills’ free agents:
UFA’s – Cordy Glenn, Richie Incognito, Percy Harvin, Nigel Bradham (starters); Ron Brooks, Alex Carrington, Jordan Mills, Josh Johnson, Marcus Thigpen;
RFA’s (need to be tendered) – Corbin Bryant, Mario Butler, Stefan Charles, Bacarri Rambo, Ty Powell, Chris Hogan, MarQueis Gray, Mike Gillislee;
ERFA (No Escape Pal) – Colton Schmidt.
This is where the rubber will meet the road. Rex is looking to prove himself right as both the jilted coach of the Jets and the only current bannerman for House Ryan (‘Our Tongues They Wag’ crest pending HBO approval); the Pegulas and Bills Brass, assuming Whaley is still GM, if not some automaton (that answers really to Rex) will want to prove their first coaching hire was a good one. 16 years without the playoffs is going to again loom heavy as moves are made in the off-season. As a result, personnel changes are going to be quick and painless in an effort to get enough cap space to retain key players above, as well as bring in needed replacements or reinforcements.
My hope, simple though it is, is that the following players are simply cut and their space used as needed. My fear is that they’ll be cut and then rumors of x or y will emerge which justifies getting out of the contract both parties agreed to. But I’m naive that way.
Let’s start with the scape goat of all scape goats, Mario Williams. Signed to a 100 million dollar contract that signaled the Bills were ready to play “big boy ball” in FA, Mario most likely will be cut because of 1. his cap number (see my thoughts above on that excuse) and 2. fit in scheme. To be blunt, Mario has been as helpful in this defense as a screen door on a submarine. The majority of that lies at the feet of Rex Ryan, but since he’s got another 20 million guaranteed and Mario has 0, Williams will lose that fight. Those hoping for Mario to take a cut to stay, I’d point to the reasoning of Tyler Dunne of the News, which I agree with whole-heartedly:
The vet could always take a pay cut, but it’s really hard seeing him doing that to stay in a scheme he doesn’t seem to even like. Multiple times, he’s expressed displeasure with his role as a 3-4 end. The Bills could use this money to re-sign a few of their own and/or search for another edge rusher.
Why would Williams, who has made over 110 million dollars in his NFL career decide to take a pay cut to stay in Buffalo in a scheme that isn’t built to feature him at a 7 technique end? Especially when he can get paid whatever he agrees to and sign on as the ‘pass rushing mercenary’ better teams like Seattle, Denver, Dallas or Arizona employ in their quests to get another round deeper into the playoffs? Jim Kelly’s deer won’t sweeten it this time folks. Cut – Saves 12.9 million.
Next up? Leo McKelvin. Perennially receiving the ire of fans, Leo has reached the end of the road with the emergence of Darby outside and the usage of Robey inside at slot. Removing Leodis also again allows Ryan favorite in training camp Mario Butler to fight for a job going into this year’s camp, assuming (which I do) they’ll either re-sign him or tender him back onto the roster. I’ve enjoyed Leodis on the team, but I will not miss having to defend him. Cut – Saves 3.9 million.
Now here’s the one I anticipate the most backlash on – time to wave ‘adieu’ to Kyle Williams as well. While he has been a warrior and a key cog on the line, age and injuries are catching up. If the Bills are going to jettison a 31 year old pass rusher for performance, doing so for a 32 year old should just be the final tug on the band-aid. Cut – Saves 5 million.
Finally, this one I won’t add in as a savings or loss, but the words of Aaron Williams post practice last week scared me enough into thinking his neck is really bad. I hope for his and his family’s sake, that if he does need to retire, he does so of his own free will and not have it forced upon him due to another scary collision. Retired.
Total Savings: 21.8 million (with 11 million in total dead money)
One little accounting move they’ll most likely entertain is re-structuring the roster bonus Charles Clay has and spreading that over the life of the remaining contract as a signing bonus. That will net them 8.5 million in savings, so their total available cap money going into free agency should be north of 42 million dollars.
(All is not lost is what I’m saying cap wise)
However, the Bills pre re-signings will need:
- Left Tackle – don’t even think of selling that “just move Henderson to a position he’s never really played and it’ll be okay” idea this year OBD. Not gonna work.
- Left Guard – for all his struggles vs Cox, Incognito and Glenn have been the Hart Foundation (excellence in execution) to the right side’s Quebecers. Not good.
- Speed Receiver – to account for Tyrod’s deep ball and to buttress against Harvin not playing / wanting to play for way too much given his injuries.
- Right Tackle – see my arguments for Henderson, just add in he’s not been too good here either. And Kouandjio is a mystery.
- 3rd QB – for development and to eventually supplant EJ (or Tyrod if they play around with his contract)
- Nose Tackle – to offset Dareus moving around the line and to hopefully do more 2 gap work than MD.
- 5 Technique End – to play stunt man and do dirty work to allow the new Edge Rusher to thrive.
- Middle / Inside Linebacker – to take on blocks ala Bart Scott or to cover backs out of backfield. Brown would responsible for some of that as well, but they need someone with more ‘oomph’ there.
- Safety – as either depth to the current corral or to replace Aaron Williams should he retire.
Dismantling the defensive line to get the space is a little bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul, but if there is one coach that is going to be…confident in his ability to find players that fit his system better, it’d be Rex.
So what are your thoughts? Any of these moves seem too extreme? Not realistic? Comment below or on twitter (@RDotDeuce) and we’ll talk amicably. Or you can call me an idiot and I’ll instead regale you with New Day gifs.
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