Hey…it’s been a while. Not really. Anyhoo – today’s discussion is an addendum to my previous article; a little bit of a course correction if you will. In talking with Joe, I think some of my point for the first article (the support present in most playoff QB rosters) was there, but a little of my execution was lacking. Today, I seek to fix that.
How? Well, glad you asked. I’m going to look at the playoff teams from 2009 to 2013 and give you the reader and hopefully the Bills an idea on how you can make the playoffs without a (pause for drama) FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK – either a draftee new to the NFL or a vet that has had…issues. As always, credit to NFL.com, Pro Football Reference and your eyeballs. This is gonna chafe.
Ground rules as always:
- I am unabashedly a believer that sitting Manuel and letting him compete in 2015 for the job can lead to a spot in the playoffs, either from him earning the spot or forcing his competition to. I also am not in the camp that all is lost.
- I also believe acquiring a vet that can compete with him (or Orton if kept) can work as well. I have my final article coming up early next week that’ll outline as previously stated the archetypes you’ll find going that route, as well as some candidates that can be acquired.
- I’m shooting to get there (the playoffs) for this article. If you want more than that, the mileage varies with this method, as you’ll see.
- For the period studied I tried to take myself out of the evaluation as much as possible. Case in point: in 2009, I have Warner, McNabb and Favre listed and later. While they are all established vets, all were on the tail end so I cannot say they’re ‘franchise’ guys (Favre after the Jets in particular). Additionally, while I heart Joey Flaccs, I get some do not. Same w/Eli. I’ll leave the “elite” debate to First Take and @bre_88.
- For each team I’ll list the QB (sometimes multiple) stats, as well as their overall rankings, pass/run and scoring for offense and defense. And for those that can’t remember some of the situations a little insight into the teams at the time. It’ll be labeled as %, Yardage, TD/Int, Overall/Pass/Run/Scoring (Offense) and Overall/Pass/Run/Scoring (Defense)
2009
New York Jets (Sanchez 53.8% 2444 12TD/20Int. #20/#31P/#1R/#17Scor #1/#1P/#8R/#1Scor) – Wow. To kick this off with The Sanchize was really the crux of my conversation with Joe a few nights ago. The Jets took Sanchez and then proceeded to create the “ground and pound” style that Rex is clamoring to return to in 2014. If you have any misgivings that this can work, look no further than the 2009 (and *spoiler-alert* 2010) Jets. Having a dominant defense that played off a punishing run game got them to the AFC championship. Twice.
Baltimore Ravens (Flacco 63.1% 3613 21TD/12Int. #13/#18P/#5R/#9Scor #3/#14P/#5R/#3Scor) – Rookie Joe Flacco wasn’t bad at all. Put into an offense that stressed the run, but allowed him to be aggressive downfield with his arm was a perfect fit. But to top that off with a stingy defense? You give yourself (and your young QB) a pretty strong shot at winning. Even in a difficult division like the AFC North.
Minnesota Vikings (Favre 68.4% 4202 33/7. #2/#10P/#9R/#2Scor #10/#19P/#2R/#10Scor) – To go from “Hey guys, uh, good luck” a season before in New York in a win and in to having your team within a few plays of being in Super Bowl is pretty crazy. But Brett Favre is the king of “pretty crazy” when you think about it. Teaming him w/Adrian Peterson, in a true west coast system was magnificent, as evidenced by his TD to Int ratio. This is the first of the three “outlier” teams for the 2009 season – with vets who may have fallen off, but have had a renaissance before they departed the NFL. For those hoping that a vet pickup could do the same, these teams give one hope.
Arizona Cardinals (Warner 66.1% 3753 26/14. #11/#12P/#28R/#11Scor #20/#23P/#17R/#14Scor) – Kurt Warner is one of my favorite QBs of all time. He’s also at this point getting a little tired of being the engine that keeps the Cardinals humming. Pairing a decent defense with his passing and a relatively ineffective run game was enough to get them in the door; Surviving a 51-45 shootout with the Packers is evidence of that. However, the next week the Cards got shellacked by the Saints and off Kurt went into the sunset. Again, another “older vet with something in the tank” option that did the job.
Philadelphia Eagles (McNabb 60.3% 3553 22/10. #5/#10P/#22R/#5Scor #19/#17P/#9R/#19Scor) – Donovan McNabb’s last season as an Eagle was an effective one as you can see. His marriage to Andy Reid resulted in some pretty effective offenses; this year’s was one of their better outputs. While the Eagles defense was good at stopping the run, it was okay in scoring, passing and overall ‘D’. So, the two sides accentuated each other quite well, though I’m sure McNabb would’ve preferred a *bit* more from them.
2010
Kansas City Chiefs (Cassel 58.25% 3116 27/7. #12/#29P/#1R/#14Scor #11/#26P/#10R/#11Scor) – Matt Cassel, fresh from the Pats was eager to prove his replacement year w/Brady out injured wasn’t a fluke. Being an effective compliment to a superb run game and good defense went a long way (at least this year) did that. Getting blown out in the wild card by Baltimore? Not so much.
Baltimore Ravens (Flacco 62.6% 3622 25/10. #22/#20P/#14R/#16Scor #10/#21P/#5R/#3Scor) – Look who made it back to the playoffs! Other than a dip in pass defense, Flacco again proved to use a (this year) middle of the road run game to go bombs away in the regular season and the playoffs. Still a good example.
New York Jets (Sanchez 54.8% 3291 17/13. #11/#22P/#4R/#13Scor #3/#6P/#3R/#6Scor) – Ground ‘n’ Pound in full effect. Another year, another trip to the AFC Championship. This would start the Jets’ offensive dismantling that doomed Sanchez as well as Ryan.
Chicago Bears (Cutler 60.4% 3274 23/16. #30/#28P/#22R/#21Scor #9/#20P/#2R/#4Scor) – This is the only playoff appearance to date for Jay Cutler. So, for those that want to trade for him and his 126 million dollar contract this is the year you have to point to when saying “he’s better than what they have”. Not just 9 seasons of awesome stats – working with a Tampa 2 based defense that helped keep the score low and complimented his occasional turnovers. Again, if the goal is to end the drought, this can work.
Philadelphia Eagles (Vick 62.6% 3018 21/6 Kolb 60.8% 1197 7/7 #2/#9P/#5R/#3Scor #12/#9P/#5R/#21Scor) – First of our “two-fers”; teams that, either by injury or starter ineffectiveness used multiple starters enroute to the playoffs. This would be not ideal, but can work. In this case, injuries to both Vick and Kolb at various points in the season gave opening for the other to start. Reid did a great job playing the ‘hot hand’ and both QBs got paid. With Manuel/Orton/QB X this can work, but I again wouldn’t bank on it.
Seattle Seahawks (Hasselbeck 59.9% 3001 12/17. #28/#19P/#31R/#23Scor #27/#27P/#21R/#27Scor) – Pete Carroll’s return to the NFL was a good start – making the playoffs with Matthew Hasselbeck’s last dance as a Seahawks starter. This was also the first year a 7-9 team made the playoffs – and the first time such a team won as well, thanks to the ‘Beast-Quake’ Marshawn Lynch made.
2011
Baltimore Ravens (Flacco 57.6% 3610 20/12. #15/#19P/#10R/#12Scor #3/#4P/#2R/#3Scor) – Adding the Bills’ own Lee Evans to this mix (partly injury, then..ugh) was supposed to put the Ravens over the top in terms of receiving options. Unfortunately, Lee is now linked as part of the play that kept the Ravens out of the Super Bowl that year. Flacco was more aggressive down field this year, at the cost of accuracy. The defense was as always stingy. But that one play….again, doable and a solid example for the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals (Dalton 58.1% 3398 20/13. #20/#20P/#19R/#18Scor #7/#9P/#10R/#9Scor) – Andy Dalton is a younger Fitz in many regards – his handling of the football, his aggressive nature with little regard for how people view his skill set, his intelligence. Putting him with an effective, aggressive defense was a great marriage the second that Lewis and co drafted him. Again, if you’re comfortable drafting or trading for a similar QB this year, it can work.
Denver Broncos (Tebow 46.5% 1729 12/6 Orton 58.7% 979 8/7 #23/#31P/#1R/#25Scor #20/#18P/#22R/#24Scor) – For those that think EJ and Kyle can’t make the playoffs as the QB tandem, I humbly submit this…thing. TebOrton combined to not only get to the playoffs but to beat the Steelers in OT. They were smoked by the Pats the next week BUT if your goal is solely OMG THIS STREAK then yes, it can work. Effective running by Willis McGahee and Tebow combined to make up for a few questionable throws (understatement mine).
San Fransisco 49ers (Smith 61.3% 3144 17/5. #11/#29P/#8R/#11Scor #4/#16P/#1R/#2Scor) – What a difference a coach makes! Alex Smith goes from being a joke of a former #1 overall pick to a ST play away from the Super Bowl. He didn’t do this alone however. That defense was angry, violent and not very giving points wise. This one again can be done, but can it with this staff?
New York Giants (Manning 61.0% 4933 29/16. #8/#5P/#32R/#9Scor #27/#29P/#18R/#25Scor) – Speaking of said fumble, Eli and co were quite happy to have that happen enroute to another defeat of the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I’m not going to judge Eli here, but teaming him with a coach that accepted his aggressive nature passing with an opportunistic defense was a match made in heaven. And they were just matched up too well vs the Pats. The current staff needs to adapt to that sort of scenario for this to work.
2012
Houston Texans (Schaub 64.3% 4008 22/12. #7/#11p/#8R/#8Scor #7/#16P/#7R/#9Scor) – I left the Texans off the list in 2011 mainly because Peyton Manning was out for the year and they were the best AFC South team left, even with Schaub being injured toward the end and TJ Yates taking over. That isn’t a reality the Bills are in, and the last time they were…ugh. ANYWAY, Great defense, efficiency out of QB = playoffs. Playing the Bengals and beating them again, also helped out for the ole psyche.
Baltimore Ravens (Flacco 59.7% 3817 22/10. #16/#15P/#11R/#10Scor #17/#17P/#20R/#12Scor) – Flacco’s shining moment (cue CBS music). If anything the older Flacco’s gotten the more likely it is he’ll trust his arm (and receivers) to make plays. While the defense has taken a step back statistically, the offense gets hot in the playoffs and they eventually win the Super Bowl. Let’s leave that off the table right now. But, getting there and letting a mad bomber get hot during the season with solid defense? That the Bills could do.
Cincinnati Bengals (Dalton 62.3% 3669 27/16. #22/#17P/#18R/#12Scor #6/#18P/#12R/#8Scor) – More of the same out of the Bengals. Again, to get to the point that fans are complaining the team isn’t doing enough in the playoffs instead of merely trying to get there is a step I’d like to transition to.
Indianapolis Colts (Luck 54.1% 4374 23/18. #10/#7P/#22R/#18Scor #26/#21P/#29R/#21Scor) – Familiar formula; for all of the accolades Luck receives and will receive, this was very much – from HC cancer scare to his turnovers – a season that required a team effort. Doable.
San Fransisco 49ers (Smith 70.2% 1737 13/5 Kaepernick 62.4% 1814 10/3 #11/#23P/#4R/#11Scor #3/#4P/#4R/#2Scor) – Two QBs get the team to the Super Bowl. Smith’s injury opened the door for Kaep to make his move. Another QB/HC/System > scenario. I’m not as confident that can happen in Buffalo at this time.
Washington (Griffin III 65.6% 3200 20/5. #5/#20P/#1R/#4Scor #28/#30P/#5R/#22Scor) – RGIII + Good Run Game vs Okay Defense = Playoffs. Familiar ring, but I’d prefer not to get my QB’s knee blown out just to get to/win a playoff game.
Seattle Seahawks (Wilson 64.1% 3118 26/10. #17/#27P/#3R/#9Scor #4/#19P/#10R/#1Scor) – Wilson + run game + LOB = Playoffs. Doable given the current personnel (plus line ‘sprucing up’).
Minnesota Vikings (Ponder 62.1% 2935 18/12. #20/#31P/#2R/#14Scor #16/#24P/#11R/#14Scor) – Christian Ponder. The guy folk joked about from FSU. Again, for those that think EJ couldn’t do it, I point to this scenario.
2013
Cincinnati Bengals (Dalton 61.9% 4293 33/20. #10/#8P/#18R/#6Scor #3/#5P/#5R/#5Scor) – Each year the Bengals get better around Dalton; Each year the pressure on him builds to show up/out in the post-season. Great problem to have.
Kansas City Chiefs (Smith 60.6% 3313 23/7. #21/#24P/#10R/#6Scor #24/#24P/#22R/#5Scor) – Andy and Alex in different cities, but together they stick to a familiar formula: solid run game, good defense, mistake-free quarterbacking. This is the type of plan that leads to “can QB X win the big one” for its simplicity, but again, great problem to have.
San Francisco 49ers (Kaepernick 58.4% 3197 21/8. #24/#30P/#3R/#11Scor #5/#7P/#4R/#3Scor) – First year as the unquestioned starter and the Niners are a tip pick away from 2nd Super Bowl. I can’t guarantee that happening in the playoffs for the Bills, but this plan can get them there.
Seattle Seahawks (Wilson 63.1% 3357 26/9. #17/#26P/#4R/#8Scor #1/#1P/#7R/#1Scor) – Similar to what happened draft day with Sammy, the Seahawks gambled to give their QB an X-factor on offense by trading for Percy Harvin. Though they had buyer’s remorse this season, he was an effective piece in the Super Bowl. Wilson however was an effective (and efficient) counterpart to a dominant defense and punishing run game. Doable.
Philadelphia Eagles (Vick 54.6% 1215 5/3 Foles 64.0% 2891 27/2 #2/#9P/#1R/#4Scor #29/#32P/#10R/#17Scor) – Chip Kelly System + okay defense and 2 QBs = we can’t replicate that unless we get Chip. Particularly the 27/2 TD/Int. That’s insane.
SO, that was a lot! A few things I took away looking at this:
- Almost every staff, even if they weren’t all in on the QB were all in on their scheme/philosophy. The only stark difference was the complete reliance on the run game the Broncos underwent post-Orton.
- Given the next few years will have most of the defense locked up, I’m inclined to think a total focus on making the offense ‘QB proof’ can only help.
- Drafting a QB (even in the 2nd round w/o trades) to compete wouldn’t be a bad idea. But the staff has to have a plan in place and a belief – either in the competition or wholly in that player.
- You can make it to the playoffs despite the QB, but you have to make sure the other pieces are around them.
- You have to be lucky (see Houston, Denver, Seattle 2010).
You can make the playoffs without an awesome QB. It’s hard, but not impossible.
As always, hit me up @RDotDeuce. Let me know if I missed anything, or if you agree/disagree/are indifferent. #1FO
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