One Fan(n)’s Opinion by @RDotDeuce: OL Market Evaluation

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“Few men have virtue enough to withstand the highest bidder.” – George Washington

With the relative ineffectiveness of the Bills’ offensive line last year, changes were going to come. Now that the recent trades, the acquisition of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator and Rex’s preferred ‘ground-n-pound’ has been announced to the football world, the re-vamping of the line becomes a priority. And to do that, it may involve that quote from POTUS numbero uno.

spending

This chart is handy – because it illustrates 1) new money that has to be spent by those teams (note to the top ten!) and 2) keep in mind that is cash, not cap. So that means teams will have to dole out signing bonuses and the like or lose the money anyway into a pool the NFLPA will re-distribute to players. As such, if the Bills wanted to go hog-wild on say a guard, or Revis, or Dareus (or all 3) it would behoove them to utilize cash over cap (amortized money) instead of cash to cap (dollar for dollar accounting in given year via cap) to make sure they’re compliant, while also signing some nifty pieces. With Shady and Cassel, they’re at 68 million over the next two years in cash spending.

Currently, pending any moves, the Bills’ top 51 cap space is sitting around 17-18 million. Projecting out to next year, pending any rollover cap wise, they will have 58-59 million dollars in space. Let’s lop off 13.1 for the 5th year option of Gilmore and even then, pre-rollover, they’re at 45-46 million.  I’m throwing that out because, while I’m sure over the past few years, things like paying a guard or running back were very “un-Bills” things, either as an edict from ownership or the front office, the type of offense required by 1) Roman/Ryan and 2) McCoy demands superior blocking or any of the moves made are really spitting into the wind.

Seeing the moves the Bills have done from all indications this (and last) year, they’re in “win now” mode. They’re also in “dear Lord we need to find a QB” mode, so as both Doug Whaley and Rex Ryan have said, spending money on other parts of the team until they have to pay a QB is paramount. Which, regardless of how you feel about Manuel can happen as soon as the 2016 FA (but you can always play with the numbers) or, should they draft a QB in 16 happen as late as 2020. C’mon y’all.

This isn’t the space to talk of the worthiness of Manuel or Cassel or whomever 3rd QB will be. However, the offensive line will determine how successful that Shady for Kiko trade is, as well as allow for a little pressure as possible on the QB. If that means they pay a little more than they’d like for a guard in 15/16 while they develop guys behind them, or have a stopgap RT in 15 should Roman or OL coach Kromer feel that Kouandjio/Henderson aren’t up to task, fine by me. They can afford it.

Just take a look at the line Rex walked into when he first joined the Jets:

LT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson (1st round pick)

LG: Alan Faneca (FA)

C: Eric Mangold (1st round pick)

RG: Brandon Moore (UDFA convert)

RT: Damien Woody (FA)

And on defense (coming up later this weekend) I’ll give you a few players, based on Rex’s past in league and overall system may fit. Yes, Revis is one of them. Interior OL, stand up!

Interior OL

Position: Offensive Guard

System Need: High

Typical Cost: 3.6 – 8.3 million per year.

Potential Targets:

Mike Iupati, LG 49ers: We’ve heard this one since Greg Roman was hired. Iupati is a great fit in a run-first based offense. I can point to the +11.2 PFF grade overall and all that fun stuff, but let’s be honest: He’s an outstanding run blocker and at times a darn liability in pass pro. If you get your run game going enough that’s mitigated – particularly because he’s played LG and has had LT or C help, but putting him at RG would be dangerous, particularly against a team with a strong 3 technique (Miami w/$uh perhaps?). If they put him at LG, between Glenn and Wood they should have a solid group, flipping Incognito to RG with Henderson/Kouandjio/RT X. He’ll be looking for the cash and paying him in the next few years as I’ve mentioned before isn’t the worst thing in the world. Finally, you get that smooth looking man-beast above. You really telling me you are going to say not to that face? C’mon.

Orlando Franklin, G/T Broncos:  Moving this mountain of a man from right tackle (where he was okay) to left guard was quite the move for Denver, as they reaped the dividends of a great performance there by Franklin. For the Bills, he could play in either spot or even right guard. I would say playing with the combos through camp would be the best bet regardless of the path they pick in free agency anyway, but with a big ole monster like Franklin he could find a home anywhere on this line. He will be looking to get paid as well – but if the Bills are viewing him as a RT option I’d say given the youth at the position to perhaps seek a more temporary candidate. If it’s for guard, particularly the next 3-4 years, absolutely.

Clint Boling, Util Bengals:  A former linemate (and record holder for most career starts) at UGA of Cordy Glenn’s, Boling will be the name most think of when they turn to free agency. A utility player that’s moved from guard to tackle when needed by the Bengals, Boling can be seen as a player on the upswing. However, is he the ascendant player you see at times or will he be the FA Bengal OL clone of Anthony Collins (he of the soon-to-be shed contract after 1 year)? If he is signed, Boling could slide into either guard spot or tackle if they *really* needed him there.

Justin Blalock, G (CUT) Falcons:  Both of my next targets are over 3o but can still block dirty? (forget I even tried that. Seriously. I’m sorry.) but are still quality additions to a vet-laden, win-now team. Blalock has been the Falcons’ starting left guard since he came into the league, so that position is an easy one for him to fill on the Bills. He was making more than they were wanting to pay a 30+ player, so the Bills can get a player that still has a few years left at a discounted rate, while also not cutting into any potential comp picks for their FAs as Blalock was a cut. Win-win.

Joe Berger, G Rams: 33 year old Joe Berger has been the clutch guy off the bench you trust not to screw up thus far in his career. To bring him to a team like the Bills and have him as the “Wayne Hunter” (6th OL/Brutus package) lineman wouldn’t be a bad investment. If the Bills part with Chris Williams and/or Kraig Urbik it would help to have such a player at the ready, regardless of if they get one of the big ticket FAs above.

Position: Center

System Need: Low – Moderate

Typical Cost: 1.575 – 8.8 million per year.

Potential Target:

Brian De La Puente, Util Bears:  With the scarcity of centers available this year, the top two FAs Wisniewski/Hudson are going to get P-A-I-D. Mr. De La Puente, however, will not. A protege under Kromer on the Bears and Saints, De La Puente isn’t bad in protection and is a good run-blocker. Add in the fact he’s relatively inexpensive and can also play guard as well and you got yourself a stew. So if the Bills wanted to put Eric Wood back at right guard (commence pearl-clutching) or give themselves solid depth/backup/cheap starter should they jettison at some point Urbik, that would be a low-expenditure way to do that.

Tackle

For the next two, this is an assumed “quick fix” to get them out of 2015/16 season with a proven vet that can be bumped for Kouandjio or Henderson when/if they’re ready.

Position: Offensive Tackle (Right)

System Need: Low – Moderate

Typical Cost: 3.5 – 7 million per year.

Potential Targets:

Doug Free, RT Cowboys: Doug Free is still a good player. However, his understudy (also on this list) is a little younger and performed just as well. So, in free agency, Doug is going to have to deal with that issue league-wide. How much do you pay a good starter at right tackle that’s 31, when you have a number of younger options (Bulaga, Parnell, Franklin, Newton, Barksdale, Harris) that you can lock up in their prime? For the Bills, I can see Free as a 2 year starter that allows for Kouandjio/Henderson to develop at right tackle without the stress of them holding rest of team back.

Jermey (don’t say Chris don’t say Chris) Parnell, RT/Util Cowboys:  Signing Parnell however, would mean that you’re looking to move one or both of the younger players into backup or other roles on this line – (Kouandjio to guard / Henderson to swing tackle?/left tackle?) and as such would most likely need a good bit of money to come in. I’m a little iffy on this plan, but he would be a solid option should they arrive to that conclusion.

That’s it for this installment. Up next we chat about the defense – in particular the pieces needed up front. After that’ll be Edge Rushers and Secondary. Questions/comments/criticisms/queries can be thrown @RDotDeuce. Mahalo.

#1FO

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