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Welcome back to part two of my FA series for the Bills. This time, we’re looking at quarterback. Like I said last time, this is going to be a tough one.
Position: Quarterback.
System Need: Medium.
Typical Cost: 5 – 16 million per year.
Of all the positions we’ll cover over the next few weeks leading to free agency, quarterback is the one I’m most sober about. By that I mean, given the market of available free agents and the frenzy that fans and media will have towards any choice made, I have no dog in the hunt. Any of the quarterbacks I mention would be fine; any could work in the offense. They key is getting everything else to work to allow that position to be complementary
The offense (and its coordinator) and their head coach give me hope however. Rex and Roman were on the 2006 / 2007 Ravens teams that had Steve McNair at the helm. Don’t take this as an insult to Steve – my point is that they’ve been on teams that heavily focused on defense and the run game, with a trusted vet that worked within the offense. The Ravens got in 2006 16 TDs and 11 interceptions out of Steve enroute to a 13-3 season. Speaking of 13-3, that was the record the first year 49ers had under Harbaugh w/Roman at the helm of the offense, with Alex Smith as trigger-man. Heck, Alex threw 17 TDs and had 5 interceptions. Matt Cassel, or EJ or drafted QB X can do that. Again, I’m not worried.
For those of you that are worried, or expect in year one the quarterback to have 4800 yards, 35 TDs and 2 picks, I’m sorry, that’s not happening. The reality of the situation is that Rex has a 5 year contract; I’m sure he’d like to win this year, but if the reason they falter this year is QB they’ll (hopefully) have their full complement of picks to rectify that in the 2016 draft. Til then, chillax and let the system just work, man. If you get a chance, read The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks by Bruce Feldman. In it, he talks about the obsession Trent Dilfer has in maximizing the talent of a quarterback without beating the fear of making a mistake into him – sound familiar? And that’s what Roman and Rex will need to do with whomever that QB is – make sure his positives are accentuated and his negatives mitigated as much as possible.
On to the (sigh) candidates:
Josh McCown: Looking at Josh McCown’s 2014 season (-18.3 PFF grade. Yeah, that’s pretty bad.) is funny to me. As much as fans, or media like to evaluate every little thing a QB does, I think McCown was in a no-win situation, unbeknownst at time of his signing in Tampa Bay. His offensive coordinator, Jeff Tedford was out nearly the entire season with a medical condition, which left the other assistants scrambling to run Tedford’s system to limited success. Think to the time spent with Marrone putting square pegs in round holes during games here in Buffalo. A coach that doesn’t buy in (or can own) a system on either side of the ball can kill a team as much as bad play by the men on the field. Look instead to his 2013 time with the Bears post Cutler injuries (+17.9 PFF grade). When you watch the games, you see a more decisive player, someone who has the trust of the coach and knowledge of where he wins on the field. If McCown is signed, I’m not going to lead a parade for him – but you won’t count me in the punditry intelligentsia that’ll whinge and moan about it either.
Note: NONE OF THIS MATTERS SINCE HE SIGNED WITH CLEVELAND
Jake Locker: Locker is, barring a trade for say a Sam Bradford the closest approximation to EJ Manuel, albeit on a different team. Locker has not made it to 16 games in any season yet – even just on the bench! Injuries have stopped him when the promise of development appeared on the horizon, each time more of a tease than the last. Ultimately, bringing in Locker is a presumption that he and Manuel would re-enact the Seahawks 2011 season, where Whitehurst and Jackson alternated starts due to injuries.
Matt Moore: The Matt Moore of 2 years ago would have likely been my number one candidate for this team and the offense it’ll run. He’s fallen to third (second post McCown signing) because while I have concerns he didn’t strike while the iron was hot to find a job in 2013, he can still be effective post-competition as a resource for Manuel or QB X. I can point to the PFF numbers of 3-4 years ago, but those grades or any vines I’d make do not answer why Moore didn’t go for a starting job and escape being Tannehill’s Yoda?
Brian Hoyer: Consider Hoyer a placeholder here in terms of my list – he really could be TJax out of Seattle, or Mallett (or even a trade for someone like Matt Cassel or *sigh* Cousins). These QBs opted to challenge themselves and prove they were starter-worthy. Of all my gripes with the scenario that played out this year with Manuel and Orton, the part that bugged me the most was my opinion (which played out as such) Orton was on a retirement tour and didn’t “want it” anymore. These four do, but to assume any of them walk into One Bills Drive as a presumptive starter would be fool-hardy.
Matt Cassel: Funny thing happened while Joe had this article in the hopper for publication: the Bills went and traded for Matt Cassel – sending a 2015 5th and 2016 7th to Minnesota in exchange for the USC QB that wasn’t Sanchez and a 6th rounder in 2015. So now that Rex and Roman have their vet, we can see if they bolster the position with another veteran when free agency starts or perhaps look toward the draft?
Mark Sanchez: Sanchez, much like my earlier suggestion of Conner at fullback, is purely a connect-the-dots with Rex. His 2014 with the Eagles started off well, but then tailed off into a 2-3 final stretch with a playoff spot on the line. Sure, you could say the Eagles’ defense fell off the rails a bit too – but Sanchez needed to acquit himself a bit better. I’m a believer that Sanchez can be a bit more than what he’s been thus far in the NFL, however they already (kiiiiinda) have that with EJ. Again, if they bring him in he’ll be a challenger to the position and, assuming the Bills are as aggressive in FA as they are claiming they’ll be, Sanchez would be on a roster as talented as his rookie year.
The real exercise outside of these candidates is to look for a quarterback that, given the pool available, can be competition to Manuel and also as a veteran provide a mentor/good soldier role if he were to lose the competition. From all indications, the Bills are looking for a candidate that can be in the same role Dilfer had in Seattle, pushing Hasselbeck (and himself) to be better than what they could have been without a challenger. And please, keep this in mind: the new CBA’s allowance for picking a player and throwing them away without financial consequence of days gone is a two-edged sword. Instead of giving a quarterback more time to get ready, teams have opted for less, to the detriment of the team and the player.
Like I prefaced this article, any person they get at this point is going to be a placeholder to 1. Challenge EJ or 2. Show their wares until the QB emerges via draft/FA/cloning/etc. Don’t waste your energy tearing whoever they sign apart, just accept it’s all…part of the plan. A plan that may have even more moves waiting for us tomorrow on top of Shady and Cassel…
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As always you can hit me up on twitter @RDotDeuce or of course find me in Temecula. Next time: we’re talking big uglies – the offensive linemen. First will be guards, then after that the tackle position (particularly on the right).
#1FO
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