One Fan(n)’s Opinion By @RDotDeuce: Stats Soup – Comparing Tyrod to the Field after 9 Games

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For nine games, Tyrod Taylor has been the starter for the Bills. While his record (5-4) and statistics in those starts are encouraging, I’m seeing a lot of doubt on twitter and some grumblings on the radio about whether or not he is a “franchise” quarterback. This in turn also begs the follow up of “should the Bills invest in a(nother) first round QB this year?

Before I jump into this question and the ensuing statistical swampland, I want to challenge you to read the following article.  Kurt Warner is one of my favorite QB’s of all time – and for him to pen this article on patience with quarterbacks as I was laboring to write this article was a sign to me that I’m not a nutter. In particular, this section towards the end of Warner’s article spoke (literally) to the Bills and their quarterback struggles of the last decade-plus:

So it makes you wonder when some of these modern day teams will bite the bullet and make the same bold move Coughlin did. Not every young QB is going to become Manning and lead his team to championships. But who was the last journeyman QB to lead a team to the Super Bowl? Which of the two would you be willing to bet on if you were leading an organization?

I look at teams like the Bills, Jets, Browns, Redskins, Eagles and Rams, among others, and wonder when the QB carousel is going to stop. When are they going to develop a plan of patience to commit to someone and ride them as far as that ‘horse’ will take them?

Surely, some coaches and GMs will get fired in the process of finding out if a young, unproven player has what it takes, but how many are going to last very long without a proven QB anyways?

In the time I’ve written for Buffalo Wins, I’ve talked a good bit about the Bills situation at quarterback and the hard truth that faces them. Being in QB purgatory is something the Bills have been used to, but Warner’s article touches on the way you get out of it – you find a QB, you develop him and then you TRUST your process and the player. Too often the Bills have always had one foot out the door with their QBs, citing how they were burned with the previous model. With Tyrod, he’s played well but needs to improve from his first year to his second. That doesn’t, however discount the success he’s had in the first nine starts of his career relative to his peers. To that end, Joe and I spent the better part of the last week looking up some of his NFL contemporaries in an effort to see how he stacks up. Our findings are below.

We looked at a “lucky 13” crew of QBs that are (or were) starters in the last 2 years. We didn’t want to go *too* far back, so Peyton, Brees, Palmer, Brady are on the bench for this one, though you’re more than welcome to peruse Pro Football Reference and throw their stats my way. I’ll add em in and give you credit. We’re a community-based operation here at Buffalo Wins!

Anyway, back to the task at hand…

Chart 1 – The OG’s.

Personally, looking back at the insanity that was the rookie year for Big Ben isn’t a reminder of the “oh my God the Steelers backups that later became starters that won a Super Bowl beat our starters” game; instead, I think of how insane his season was overall. That is the unicorn of rookie seasons folks. Rodgers and Rivers were interesting in comparison to Tyrod because they both sat for a few years prior to getting their shot. Tyrod holds his own in every statistic to these guys, but I’m not going to crown him yet. So please, don’t take away from this article “Rich and Joe thinks that Tyrod will be Aaron Rodgers” because then you’re losing the plot, mate.

Chart 2 – ELITE? QBs

This is was great mainly because these are quarterbacks that have been declared or maligned as being/not being “elite”. Whereas few would argue with the three above being considered a cut above the rest, these 5 have been through the ringer in terms of how they’re viewed by fans and the media. Eli in particular is striking, given the Warner article I cited above. How many teams are willing to go through that much “pain” to let a rookie torch their potential-playoff season? Russell Wilson’s rookie year almost ended after four games and a 2-2 record – so to see him go 3-2 in the next 5 games and eventually reach where he has could have all gone up in a bid to get the big ticket FA (Matt Flynn) on the field. Tyrod again shows well vs this group and doesn’t seem to be a negative outlier.

Chart 3 – AKA Yung Hate

This group is comprised of quarterbacks that have become the butt of jokes and are generally seen as either completely incompetent at this point or having had a severe fall from grace in Kaep’s case. EJ and Tannehill by comparison – I mean, wow. The first round pick attributed to both allows for the idea of growth – I think a lot of Tyrod’s current issues in terms of fan evaluation have to do with his sixth round pedigree. To be honest, I’m perplexed by this as traditionally Buffalo fans have been enamored with the late-pick-done-good gimmick.

Chart 4 – AKA Yung Love

Taking Tyrod and dropping him in this group of (in 2015 at least) relatively well liked young quarterbacks is, in my opinion, the best fit. The stories haven’t been written yet for the three above Tyrod. As such, with every game we’re getting closer and closer to seeing the true player emerge and that’s my entire story on Mr. Taylor. Throughout all of the comparisons, I am struck that Tyrod’s yards per attempt is only behind Romo, Big Ben, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in their first nine games. At the time of their starts, all four players had teams that complimented the rookie starter – hopefully Buffalo can get back on track with that regard as well.

As you think about Tyrod over the final __ games this season, think not with the lens of viewing him as a “franchise/non franchise” player; instead, is he a competent quarterback? Do I think the team has the best chance to win with him? Do I think, long-term the team should allow him to grow in the position?
Is the team doing everything it can to contribute to his success?

If you instead view him and the quarterback position as something that needs to grow, that needs patience and nurturing instead of something that can be added to water and POOF you have an insta-qb, the next time you look at Tyrod you might see a quarterback that deserves that shot.

I’d like your thoughts on this – hit me up on twitter @RDotDeuce, in the comments or if you see me in the streets. Maybe.