If the Seattle Seahawks have taught us anything this season, it may be this: One game makes all the difference. Currently at 6 – 4, the Seahawks have fallen out of qualifying for the playoffs (if the season ended today) by virtue of having dropped a winnable game in Kansas City this past Sunday. The blue birds continue to swap places with their week one opponent, the Green Bay Packers, in the jockeying for the 5th and 6th playoff seeds — Seattle’s only hope for an invitation to the post season.
But what if they had pulled out the win? One more play to be made and it’s one more win … a 7 – 3 Seahawks squad. Instead of the legitimate concern over their ability to make the playoffs, the whole narrative about the team would be flipped: The Seahawks take one on the road against a playoff-caliber opponent; they’re just two games back from the division leader; they’re in the driver’s seat for a wild card.
But they’re not. Because they lost.
One game.
Niners hold the key
Last week, the Seahawks were in and the Packers were out. This week, it’s the reverse. That Packers continued their hot streak since their early season stumble and currently hold the 5th seed in the NFC. The Seahawks have dropped to 8th, behind the Packers, Dallas Cowboys, and the San Francisco 49ers. As Seahawks fans recall all too well, the Cowboys hold the most important tiebreaker over the blue birds having beaten the Seahawks at CenturyLink. Their playoff hopes may hinge entirely upon getting ahead of their division foe from the Bay Area.
The good news for the Seahawks is the same as the bad news for the Seahawks: They play the 49ers twice. Soon, in fact. Of course, they also play the NFL’s only single-loss team, the red birds from Arizona even sooner. And also twice.
The 8th seed Seahawks need to make up some ground. Fast.
Reality check
If you’re realistic, you know that the most likely scenario for the Seahawks is a split between their remaining games against the NFL- and division-leading Arizona Cardinals and the menacing (and equally 6 – 4) San Francisco 49ers. That leaves the Seahawks with at least six losses at season’s end. The division crown is a pipe dream. The Seahawks’ quest is to secure the fifth or sixth seed in the playoffs.
That’s quite a difference from 2014’s marauding three-loss campaign that secured the Seahawks home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a bye. No, the Seahawks’ playoff perspective for January 2015 will be a horse of a much different color.
Color it dark and dreary as the Seahawks continue to stumble as a road foe. The loss to the Chiefs as a case in point, the Seahawks will only find the going much tougher on the road in the playoffs than they faced in road losses at KC, San Diego and St. Louis. Those pesky Rams, who defeated the Seahawks on October 19, will not make the playoffs but they have once again asserted themselves as the NFL’s thorn in your side, having just whitewashed the heavily favored Denver Broncos — using their third-string journeyman quarterback. The Rams will visit Seattle to close out the regular season and right now, on paper, they are the easiest game the Seahawks have left on the slate.
But can the Seahawks stay in it long enough to make the week 17 Rams game matter?
Slim and none
The Seahawks have only two road wins so far in 2014, against the imploding squads from Washington and Carolina. That may be it. The traveling blue birds will not be favored in their remaining three road games at San Francisco, Philadelphia and Arizona.
Forget for a moment that the playoff route that the Seahawks can earn will be fraught with peril for the off-kilter champions. If conventional thinking holds true, based on Seattle’s performance to date, it’s a 9 – 7 record the Seahawks will own at season’s end. That won’t come close to winning the division and almost certainly will leave them on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
It comes down to this: One game. Not the old cliché, “one game at a time,” although that’s as true as it ever was, but one game better than their current level of play. Which means the Seahawks have to sweep the 49ers in order to get their playoff ticket punched. With two games to go against the up-and-down 49ers, the Seahawks can effectively eliminate the 49ers from playoff contention — or they can eliminate themselves.
The pie-in-the-sky view suggests the suddenly vulnerable Eagles may also provide Seattle’s best avenue to a wild card spot, if they can pull off an unlikely road victory in Philadelphia later this season. This improbable scenario will only help the Seahawks if they have secured wins in their next two contests against Arizona (home) and San Francisco (away).
On the other hand, if the Seahawks continue at their current pace, against the toughest part of their schedule, they may be also-rans before they even get to the week 17 Rams game. If you don’t see a way the Seahawks can do at least one win better than their current pace, well then, good news … maybe. Your January weekends may have just opened up.
Dance with the girl that brung ya
How are they going to do it? If the Seahawks make it back to the playoffs they’ll have to rely on what got them this far: the league’s best rushing attack (NFL-leading most rushing yards per game) and a still-stingy-if-beat-up Legion of Boom, which currently ranks third in pass defense. Gone are the hopes for a consistently threatening pass game. Gone also is the Seahawks’ ability to smother any team’s run game.
If the Seahawks are going to successfully fight their way back into the playoffs, they’ll have to do it on the backs of talented but occasionally overwhelmed quarterback Russell Wilson and oft-annoyed-but-still-producing running back Marshawn Lynch. Both talents have proven to be the only consistent offensive playmakers the Seahawks can count on.
It’s been a far different ride for the 2014 Seahawks compared to last season. They glided into the postseason last year with only three losses. Having already lost one more game than all of last season, this season’s outlook is one of uncertainty.
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