Only one from the South?

I disagree. I don’t think 11 wins gets left out.  I don’t think all four of those teams are locks for 12 wins.

Except for this: I don’t believe two teams from the AFC South are getting into the playoffs.

Barring catastrophes, I think New England and the New York Jets are locks out of the AFC East and that Pittsburgh and Baltimore are locks out of the AFC North.

That leaves only one spot for the AFC South. Win the division, or you may be staying home, even with a great record. Lose Monday night, and you’re chances at the division crown take a significant fall.