By now you’ve all certainly seen the rumors. The talk that Matt Cullen isn’t happy in Minnesota. That the Wild aren’t happy with him. His tumbling ice time which included a healthy scratch last week isn’t sitting well. It’s become a tumultuous relationship that was supposed to be Dad’s victory lap after the back-to-back cups in Pittsburgh. So that naturally leads to the Penguins. The Penguins who miss Cullen, badly. But are we all just being nostalgic or is a return of Dad to his sons in black and gold the answer, once again?
Well, I decided to take a look at Cullen’s underlying numbers which he was famous for having good ones of before coming to Pittsburgh. He’s currently posting his worst ever corsi-for% which is not good but when you look at the team as a whole…the Minnesota Wild have the second-worst corsi-for% in the league so is it the chicken or the egg? That’s hard to tell.
What we do know for sure is that Dad’s shooting percentage, much like the Pittsburgh Penguins as a whole this year, is in the toilet. He’s putting up the second-worst shooting percentage of his career so far, an abysmal 4.35% By comparison, the last two years he racked up 11% and 13%. The only time he put up a worse shooting percentage than this year so far was when he first went to the Wild in 2011-2012. So maybe he’s just unlucky… except the thing is we can actually look at a large sample size for Cullen and when I did I found an interesting pattern.
This is Cullen’s 12th season in the league. He has played six seasons in the Western Conference and six in the Eastern Conference. Five of the bottom half of his seasons, by shooting percentage, took place in the West. And five of the top half of his seasons, by shooting percentage, took place in the East. Now look, I know that’s not an exact science but when the split is pretty much down the middle like that…isn’t it worth saying maybe he doesn’t play well in the West.
Saying a player isn’t suited to a certain Conference or team or style isn’t unheard of. It’s actually pretty common and we’ve seen it with the Penguins. Sidney Crosby’s offense was stifled by Johnston’s style of play. Maatta, can’t play on the right side. Carl Hagelin looks ridiculous playing in the Western Conference. So maybe Cullen isn’t suited to that either?
The thing that really sells me on this… is the pace chart, a chart put together below by Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) The Penguins last year were pretty much the best or one of the top few in “pace” consistently. They played fast, they played hard and by the third opposing teams couldn’t keep up. This year they’re not the fastest but they’re still in the top five in pace. Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the bottom five. The only teams slower than the Wild are the basement dwelling Red Wings and Sabres as well as the Hitchcock Stars and the “they really aren’t that good” Canucks.
Essentially, Dad is a square peg in a round hole. Sure, being in Minnesota was important and is important to him for much more than hockey but… this isn’t Matt Cullen’s style. They don’t skate fast enough. They don’t have enough skill or speed around him to compliment how he plays. And he certainly isn’t going to benefit from the kinds of match-ups playing in Pittsburgh did.
The Wild isn’t the team Matt Cullen should be on. I think, by now, that’s become abundantly clear. So now all that’s left is for Cullen and his old friend Jim Rutherford to have a talk. Then it’s time for Rutherford and Chuck Fletcher to talk and see what deal can get done to bring Dad back to Pittsburgh. Because Pittsburgh is home.
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