Optimizing the Indians Line-Up

With the finish of the World Series, open season on free agents is about to begin and we have already prepared you with reports on which Indians are signed through 2015, the most likely Indians line-up and where their biggest holes are. While those articles were all based on what the Indians are most likely to do, this will be what they should do. Those others showed what was necessary to field a team at all in 2015, but this will show how to make the most of what they already have.

If the Royals success through the post-season showed anything, it is that defense matters. During the regular season, it was the Indians who won the season series with Kansas City, had the best offense and the best pitching staff. The only advantage the Royals had was their defense and it showed itself time after time in October as they swept their way to the World Series. During the regular season, there was a difference of 133.5 defensive runs allowed (according to Fan Graphs’ UZR) between the two teams, more than enough to ensure the Indians would be staying at home this fall. Because of that, optimizing the defensive lineup will be just as important if not more than which players are hitting where.

The chart to the right shows the expected production if the Indians don’t change anything. These numbers are based off their numbers from 2014 and extrapolated as if they played a full starters season at that particular position. While it may surprise some, the only positive defenders the Indians have going into next year are Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Jose Ramirez and Mike Aviles. On the surface, Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana appeared to have great seasons in left field and at first base, but when looking at advanced stats like defensive runs allowed compared to a replacement player, much more than simple errors are considered. When counting range, arm strength and other defensive attributes, the majority of the Indians fielders are considerably worse than the rest of the league.

Worth noting, the defensive numbers listed above are only for the positions at which the players are listed. Multiple players, including Brantley were significantly better at one place or another. For example, Santana had a -6.0 total UZR last year at third base (225 innings), but had a much improved -0.5 UZR at first (851 innings) while Nick Swisher had a -78.4 UZR/150 in right field compared to just a -18.4 UZR/150 at first. Another thing of importance is that this grouping as the Indians offense assumes an eight man bullpen in 2015 like the Indians used for most of the season in 2014. This would likely lead to similar versatility issues in the next season as were had in the last and could also lead to tough roster decisions. These decisions can’t solely be made based upon talent as a few players who are already signed for big money for 2015 are among the worst players on the team. Between Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn and David Murphy, $38.5M is owed for a combined four seasons. If they were to be released, that money would still need to be paid, but their services would be unavailable.

Taking money into account, the chart at right shows the best lineup the Indians could use without throwing away $36M of that $38.5M owed. There are a few changes from the expected line-up and even a couple small differences make a big difference as this line-up could be worth about 55 more runs. Keeping Gomes, Santana, Jason Kipnis and Perez in place, the two least valuable players, Murphy and Swisher, were given less important positions. In their place, Lonnie Chisenhall could avoid his poor defense as the regular DH while reserve outfielder Tyler Holt would move into a more prominent position. Holt was both a plus defender and plus hitter, so few players could make as big of an impact immediately.

The most extreme change noted is to move the Indians top defender from 2014 from short stop to third base in order to replace Chisenhall with rookie phenom Francisco Lindor expected to come up to start at short stop. In both these cases, the numbers are less legitimate than the others as neither has played that position at the Major League level, although they both have excelled in the minors. The final change was to flip Michael Bourn with Brantley as there is no question that Brantley is superior in center field. This could also help Bourn’s hamstring recovery, a problem he dealt with all season, assuming he could take the hit to his pride.

There are many alternatives the Indians could use this year and this is only one option and at that, it is one that the veteran loving manager Terry Francona would be very unlikely to use. The best chance is that the Indians will keep Swisher in a starting role, where he will continue being the worst performer on the team. They will also most likely start the season with Lindor in AAA and by starting Swisher at DH, it will keep Chisenhall at third and the Indians will return the terrible infield defense they used in 2014 again next season. Rather than a prediction of the 2015 lineup, this shows that even with the current roster, the Indians could vastly improve their defense, changing from one of the worst in the league to one of the best.

There are improvements that could be made even on this, such as using Zach Walters as the utility infielder/outfielder instead of Swisher and possibly another defensive minded outfielder like Tyler Naquin or Carlos Moncrief in exchange for Murphy. The decision for the Indians this season will be how to balance financial obligations with attempting to field a winning team. With no thoughts of returning to the post-season in 2015, the Indians would take the field with Nick Swisher as the team leader and starting first baseman. Thinking only of winning, he will not even be on the 25 man roster. Of the many options between these two, the line-up listed above would be one of the best.