Fourteen teams remain undefeated in college football after week 7. Only two get to play for the national title, and computers and polls will decide which two make it.
There’s some concern over the BCS computers and Oregon’s strength of schedule with Stanford losing to Utah on the weekend and The Cardinal hosting UCLA this week, but that simply has to sort itself out. The Ducks have become such an entertaining team that if they win out, they’re probably in the national championship game.
A clear opportunity lies before them. Of course, when reporters talk to the Oregon coaches or players, they’ll immediately shift the conversation to Washington State.
From their perspective, that’s absolutely right. There’s no national championship game without a win over the Cougars. It’s the only thing they control this week. But for fans, it doesn’t hurt to have a road map of the race and know who’s left in the competition.
Here is a quick review of the undefeated and their remaining schedules. Their current AP rankings are to the left:
1. Alabama 6-0
Remaining schedule: Arkansas, Tennessee, at #6 LSU, at Mississippi State, Chattanooga (really, SEC?) @ #24 Auburn, SEC title game (Georgia Dome)
Alabama has the clearest road to the national title game with one semi-difficult road game left and LSU at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 9th.
2. Oregon 6-0
Remaining schedule: WSU, #9 UCLA, @ #13 Stanford, Utah, @Arizona, Oregon State, PAC-12 title game
The Ducks will likely have to beat UCLA twice and faces a physical matchup in Palo Alto, a tricky rivalry game the day after Thanksgiving on a Friday night (4 p.m. kickoff). If they win out they’re in, and only two of their remaining games are on the road, where they play well anyway with the nation’s longest winning streak.
3. Clemson 6-0
Remaining schedule: #5 Florida State, @Maryland, @Virginia, Georgia Tech, Citadel, @ #11 South Carolina, ACC Championship
The computers are really going to like Clemson if they beat Florida State. They could face current #10 Miami in the ACC title game
4. Ohio State 6-0
Remaining schedule: Iowa, Penn State, @Purdue, @Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Big 10 title game
The Buckeyes only have one win over a team currently ranked in the Top 25, Wisconsin two weeks ago, and no remaining games against current Top 25 opponents
5. Florida State 5-0
@ #3 Clemson, North Carolina State, #10 Miami, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, @ #22 Florida, ACC Championship
In terms of schedule, the Seminoles have the hardest road to the national championship game, with three remaining games against the Top 25, two of those on the road.
8. Louisville
Central Florida, @South Florida, @ Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, @Cincinnati
Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals don’t play a ranked team all year. The only way they reach the national title game is if Ohio State, Oregon, Clemson, and Florida State absorb a loss. They’d be passed over by a one-loss SEC team.
9. UCLA 5-0
@ #13 Stanford, @ #2 Oregon, Colorado, @Arizona, #20 Washington, Arizona State, @ USC, PAC-12 Championship Game
With four road games remaining and three (possibly four) against ranked opponents, the Bruins have one of the hardest roads to the national title, but they can climb into contention if they win their next two. In that sense they control their own destiny.
12. Baylor 5-0
Iowa State, @Kansas, #18 Oklahoma, #16 Texas Tech, @ #21 Oklahoma State, @ TCU, Texas
The relative weakness of the Big 12 robs Lache Seastrunk and the Bears of the opportunity to make it to Pasadena. Like Louisville they would need help to reach the title game, and would be passed over by a one-loss SEC champion.
Remaining unbeatens: Fresno, Houston, Missouri, Northern Illinois, Texas Tech
From this group, only Missouri, a surprise 6-0 with a win over injury-riddled Georgia on the weekend, has a clear shot at an eventual #2 ranking. Currently 14th, they have remaining marquee SEC games against #22 Florida, #11 South Carolina and #7 Texas A&M, but all three of those are at home. If they remain undefeated (not likely) they’d face the winner of Alabama-LSU in the SEC title game. That’s a lot of hurdles, but they can earn their way in. They are the Cinderella story at the moment.
The other four in this group lack the schedule strength to be relevant for the BCS Championship race.
Three one-loss SEC teams remain sufficiently ranked to compete for the title:
#6 LSU, 6-1 has a win over Georgia, plays Alabama and Texas A&M in November
#7 Texas A&M 5-1 lost to #1 Alabama, faces Auburn this week, ends season with road games @LSU, @ Missouri
#11 South Carolina lost to Georgia, @ #14 Missouri, hosts Florida and Clemson in November.
Stanford is seriously wounded. Currently ranked #13, they would need wins over UCLA and Oregon to climb back in the race, and then need a shakeout among the other contenders.
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