Oregon Ducks NCAA Tournament Preview

It has been a year of vindication for Dana Altman’s squad.

Injuries slowed the team early in the season, and their depth was tested with the ejection from the team of stars Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson for sexual assault allegations, and the transfer of bench star Ben Carter to UNLV.  The team fielded six walk-on players and seven freshman with the inclusion of Israeli transfer Roman Sorkin.  This was compared to the previous season’s squad which had just three walk-on players and three freshman.

With their depth an issue, the Ducks fell to three of their four out of conference tests, falling to VCU, Michigan and Ole Miss, while defeating Illinois.  They then lost three of their first five conference games, including an overtime stunner to perennial Pac-12 doormat Washington State and a loss to eventual 16-15 Washington.  With their season on the line, the Ducks went 11-2 in conference the rest of the way, and fought to the Pac-12 title game where they lost to Arizona for the third time this year.

Now they face the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Round of 64, a team that many felt was unworthy of an at-large bid due to their 8-10 record in conference.  A look at how the teams compare:

Guards:
Joseph Young and Jalil Abdul-Bassit versus Jeff Newberry, Phil Forte III and Anthony Hickey Jr.

ADVANTAGE: OREGON

The matchup to watch here is Oregon star Young versus Forte III.  Young led the Ducks with a 20.2 scoring average this year, doing it on 44.4% shooting, including 35% from three.  He failed to score in double-figures just twice all season, hanging 30 points on an opponent four times.  He tends to be a volume shooter, but did put 25 on #17 Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament, and 19 against #5 Arizona in the finals.

Forte is much more of a three-point specialist, but will vanish entirely from time to time.  In the Big XII tournament versus Oklahoma, he scored just three points on 1-of-10 shooting, including 0-for-7 from three.  In the last seven games, he has scored seven points or fewer three times.  If his three point shot is not falling, he is virtually invisible.  If there is any area where Forte will cause problems, it is his ability to get steals.  Both him and Hickey average two steals a game.

Abdul-Bassit and Newberry are essentially a wash, with both players averaging around nine points a contest with Abdul-Bassit being a three point shooter.  He contributes almost nothing else, averaging less than one assist and one rebound a contest, though he does shoot 42% from three.  Newberry is less of a scorer (not that it stopped him from scoring 23 versus West Virginia in the Big XII tournament), but will add more to the Cowboys elsewhere.

Forwards:
Elgin Cook, Dillon Brooks, and Jordan Bell versus Le’Bryan Nash and Michael Cobbins

ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE

Nash is an interior force of nature, capable of carrying the Cowboys when asked.  He scored in double-figures in every game this season, and did not shy away from top competition.  He averaged 19 points per game against ranked squads, including more than half of Oklahoma State’s 49 points in their Big XII Tournament loss to Oklahoma.  He does commit a great deal of turnovers, and is not an overly powerful defender at just 6’7 and 235 pounds, but Cobbins makes up for that with almost two blocks a contest.

Bell is a Ben Wallace type of player for Oregon, a rebounder and shot blocker who does not shoot away from five feet from the rim.  He is only 6’8, but has a great vertical.  Cook is a good scorer, but cannot carry the Ducks like Young can, and is shut down by superior interior defenders.  Cook should be able to score on Cobbins however.  Brooks is a smaller version of Cook, with similar scoring and rebounding numbers, but an ability to shoot from outside at a decent rate.

Bench: 

ADVANTAGE: PUSH

The teams have different levels of depth off of the bench.  Oregon has four specialized players in Dwayne Benjamin, Ahmaad Rorie, Casey Benson, and Michael Chandler, while Oklahoma State has seven players that do about the same level of work.  The Ducks are used to playing their starters more minutes (Young averages an astounding 36.5 minutes per game), but the first round matchup should not be an issue for exhaustion.  Later in the tournament (if the Ducks advance) could prove to be a problem, however.

Coaching: 

ADVANTAGE: OREGON

Coach Dana Altman has more tournament experience than Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford.  Both coaches have a great lifetime record, but Altman has been coaching at the top level of competition since 1990 at Kansas State, while Ford hit the top level in 2008 after leaving UMass.

Prediction: Oregon 64, Oklahoma State 57