England’s Premier League kicks off this weekend, and while there’s been an overabundance of soccer this summer with the World Cup, MLS regular season, and locally the MLS All-Star week, you can’t get enough of a good thing, right? My wife isn’t convinced, and I’m still a little weary from all the action (a World Cup in a compatible time zone is really a thing of wonder), but in the end there’s little I love more.
Currently in the Premier League, the general consensus is that there’ll be five teams vying for the top four prize spots. Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal. The most obvious goal is first place—title winners—while remaining three are the extremely lucrative Champions League qualifying positions. Hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. And let’s not forget glory. Glory is important, too.
It’s hard to make absolute predictions yet, as the transfer window is still open and often most active on the very last day. Some of these teams will be significantly better afterwards. That said, it’s impossible to say what late business will be done. Without further ado, here’s a rundown of those five teams as they stand today.
Chelsea
After a summer of smart business, Chelsea is most bookies’ and prognosticators’ favorite to win the title this season. They will also be fully Jose Mourinho’s teams: he’s dumped the players he couldn’t mold or didn’t like, and brought in world class talent with central midfielder Cesc Fabregas and striker Diego Costa.
Last season, the huge investment (which is, of course, the norm for the team) was framed as a year of transition. Mourinho attempted an attacking style, but it didn’t suit the players, or perhaps it’s simply not what he does best, scrapped it, and wound up with a excellent defensive team excellent that couldn’t score. Fabregas will add creativity and vision, and Costa should be a big upgrade on the woeful Fernando Torres.
In the likely case that Chelsea maintains its defensive prowess and improves its attack, there isn’t a better bet.
If results sour, though, the situation will get interesting. Last season was the first in Mourinho’s career without silverware, and while it’s likely that they’ll play with more verve this time around, it’s not something his teams are known for. Chelsea’s oligarch owner, Roman Abramovich, has long insisted that his team win in style … which they rarely do. If things get ugly, his generally ignored preference for beauty will sneak back in. Style was one of the reasons Abramovich and Mourinho fell out in their (very successful) term together.
Prediction: 1st
Manchester City
The defending champions have the deepest bench, the best array of strikers, and a stable base from which to improve. Last year was manager Miguel Pellegrini’s first with the club, and it took a quarter of the season for them to really get going. If they start back up where they left off, they might very well retain the title.
There’s a bit of recent history, however, to suggest that this expensively assembled team might have trouble maintaining the necessary hunger. They won two years ago, and really should have repeated, but lost focus and left the door open for a comparatively poor Manchester United. They seemed sated, sleepy.
A few warning signs have surfaced over the summer: their best and most consistent player, Yaya Toure, threw a fit over a perceived lack of respect and seemed to be pushing for a move to another club. That situation appears to have been resolved, but it was so strange and off-key (he was upset that the club didn’t wish him a happy birthday … but they had, and there were pictures to prove it: everyone on Twitter saw the cake and champagne) it’s hard to imagine that everything is just totally hunky dory. Then, this past weekend, City were thrashed 3-0 by Arsenal in the Community Shield. It’s a friendly game and both teams were missing important players, but nobody, particularly champions, likes to lose like that.
Prediction: 2nd
Manchester United
United’s 2013-2014 season was an absolute feast for rubberneckers. Nobody expected their first post-Alex Ferguson year to be easy, but then nobody imagined such an endless calamity, either. They finished seventh and out of contention for both the lucrative Champions League and its gritty little brother the Europa League. It was their worst result of the Premier League era.
Much of what was wrong has been rectified. Namely, David Moyes was fired and replaced by Louis Van Gaal. Van Gaal, who led the Netherlands to third place in this summer’s World Cup, might be just the egomaniac they need. Whereas Moyes, who’s never won a major trophy, was overwhelmed and reflexively apologetic from the beginning, Van Gaal has the swagger of a man who has won it all. Which he has, more or less. While he does have a history of burning bridges with star players and falling out with club hierarchies, the meltdowns don’t usually come in the first year. His devout belief in his own genius will be a strength for United … at least in the beginning.
United have made a couple expensive signings in midfielder Ander Herrera and fullback Luke Shaw, but more are expected by the end of the window. If they manage to land their remaining transfer targets like Chilean midfielder Arturo Vidal their fans will be rightfully optimistic, and the recent dreariness will recede quickly. If not … well, the rubberneckers will be happy.
Prediction: 4th
Liverpool
Liverpool’s run at the title was last season’s biggest surprise: they would’ve been a real underdog champion, and sadly that doesn’t happen often (or, arguably, at all). On top of that, they were great to watch, scored a ton of goals, and there was a sort of romantic inertia to their challenge that even non-fans could appreciate.
However, they’ve lost their best player in Luis Suarez to Barcelona, and a talent of his magnitude is irreplaceable. They’ve used the money generated by his sale to buy a horde of new players, many of which are promising, but none of which on his own can come close to replicating what Suarez contributed.
Their defense, which was remarkably bad last season, has been improved by centerback Dejan Lovren and fullbacks Alberto Moreno and Manquillo. In midfield they’ve got new boys Adam Lallana, Lazar Markovic, and Emre Can. Liverpool didn’t play in Europe last season (meaning the Champions or Europa leagues) which allowed them to stay fresh, and now that they’ve earned a spot in the Champions League, they’re going this newfound depth. Whether the eleven on the field can be as devastating as last year is another question.
Prediction: 5th
Arsenal
Arsenal spent more days at the top of the table than any other team last season. A spat of injuries and a bad case of nerves hit as the end of the season approached, however, and they tumbled down to their habitual 4th place crash pad. It wouldn’t be imprudent to suggest that that’s exactly where they’ll end up this season.
A few important factors have changed, however. In the final act of the domestic season, the Gunners won their first trophy in nine years, the FA Cup. The win dramatically lifted the mood of the both the team and the support. Legendary manager Brian Clough once remarked that it was “the taste for champagne” that got teams to win. In other words, winning begets winning. This change in mindset is what Arsenal will be hoping for.
More tangibly, the club once again has the financial might to buy big players and keep its stars on board. Last summer saw the arrival of Mesut Ozil; this summer they’ve bought Alexis Sanchez. Both are just beginning what should be the prime part of their careers and both have already played at the very highest level. In addition to the superstars, the existing stable of talent has improved. Aaron Ramsey was a revelation last year, and if preseason form is any indication (and it’s not always), he will continue to impress. Jack Wilshere will be looking to come good on his youthful potential, as will Alex Oxlade Chamberlain.
If the team can avoid another pileup of long-term injuries, they should be able to keep the pressure on the favorites Chelsea and Manchester City, and focus on winning the league instead of avoiding fifth.
Prediction: 3rd
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