The March Madness puzzle is nearly complete as this weekend, the Final Four will take place and we will know which two teams will compete for the NCAA National Championship. We asked our Roundtable Crew to discuss the team and individual highs so far, the shocking upsets, and what we can expect in the next three games still to come.
OSN writers contributing will be Casey Mabbott (CM), Ryan Chase (RC), Garrett Thornton (GT), Garrett Imeson (GI), and Jason Hartzog (JH).
1. Which player on one of the Final Four teams is your MVP of the NCAA Tournament?
(CM) The easy answer would be Julius Randle, and his tournament averages of 12 rebounds, 16 points, a block and a steal per game, in addition to making 75% of his free throws and shooting nearly 50% from the field while averaging around 30 min per game, more than justify his case and there is no downplaying what an exceptional player he is or what a great performance he puts up night after night. But Frank Kaminsky is playing great also, and he isn’t surrounded by 5-star recruits. With per game averages of 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks, he is doing everything for Wisconsin, even if the numbers aren’t jumping off the page. He’s the 110% player coaches dream about, doesn’t get in to foul trouble, doesn’t turn the ball over, and he is having a stellar tournament. His ability to spread the court with a consistent outside shot (he’s averaging 1 made three pointer per game), crash the boards, post up inside, and still have the energy to play quality defense against the opposing bigs, the guy can simply do it all and that’s exactly why his Badgers are in the Final Four.
(RC) No question in my mind. Shabazz Napier has done everything and more for UConn. His duel with Gary Harris of Michigan State was one of the best moments of this tournament. He is averaging 23.2 points, six rebounds, and four and a half assists per game in the tournament. He has missed only two free throws all tournament long, and is shooting 45% from the field. While DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatwright have contributed, Napier is the reason UConn is on the brink of a national title.
(GT) Shabazz Napier. There is no question that UConn is the surprise team of the tournament. It is no surprise that senior leadership and point guard play is irreplaceable on a tournament team making a run. Napier was a freshman when the team won the National Championship with Kemba Walker. I think their run ends Saturday against Florida, but no matter what happens Napier was incredibly impressive.
(GI) I take MVP as the player who has meant the most to his team and, with that definition in mind, I’m looking at Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky. The way he has exploded on to the stage in the Tournament is amazingly impressive. This is a guy that 1 year ago averaged just over 4 points per game. This year he has been a decent 14 points per game. In the tournament? He had 9 points against American University, although he only played half the game because the Badgers had such a large lead. The other 3 games? 19, 19 and 28 points respectively. He has exploded at exactly the right time.
(JH) Shabazz Napier of UConn is my MVP so far. During this tournament, there hasn’t been anything he can’t do. He has been dominant all tournament long, posting averages of 23.25 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He’s been great. Wisconsin also has a player fighting for that MVP status – more on him in the next question.
2. Kentucky’s Julius Randle is locked in as a top-10 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Which other remaining players are you watching, and who can help their draft stock over the next 1-2 games?
(CM) Florida’s Patric Young, who has the potential of a first rounder and is on the bubble but probably hasn’t done enough to merit first round consideration yet. I won’t be ignoring Frank Kaminsky or Shabazz Napier, both of them have done more than enough to prove their worth, and Napier should be a top-20 pick whereas Kaminsky might sneak in to the first round or as a junior he also has the option to return to school for his senior year. Young, on the other hand¸ can’t simply elect to return to school for one more year if he doesn’t play up to or above expectations and has to make the next game or two count and count big. He has had a great tournament overall and many teams in the NBA need a defensive presence in the paint and will be watching with interest to see if he can be the valiant rim-protector he is said to be and certainly has the talent to be, but will need to prove it when it counts most and his team is playing for their season against teams as good as the one he suits up for. Tournament averages of 8 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game are not going to wow NBA GM’s, but being a force in the middle on film against Shabazz Napier and then playing in the paint against Kaminsky or Randle, would absolutely help his case as a 1st round prospect. If teamed with the right center on a good team or ideally asked to play as the starting center on a team nearby that prefers “small-ball” and has a late first round pick (looking at you, Miami), he could have an outstanding NBA career.
(RC) Napier cannot help his stock anymore. It could not possibly get higher. The player to watch going forward for my money is Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin. He has put up an absolute display all tournament long, and could see a draft stock spike. He is seven feet tall, with good mobility for his size with room to add some muscle at the NBA level. He can shoot from outside, and has a great offensive post presence. Ask Baylor about his shot blocking ability. A great showing in the Final Four could push him into an early first-round draft slot.
(GT) Unfortunately I am not sure he is going to play this weekend but I love the upside of Willie Cauley-Stein. He is not near the status that Julius Randle is. Cauley-Stein is a later first round, or second round pick. He is a legit 7-footer and is built much heavier than Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel, the last two lottery bigs that Kentucky cranked out. Cauley-Stein is a force down low on the defensive end of the court and may play a huge role in leading the Wildcats past the Badgers into the championship game. It will be fun to see where he lands in the league and what he can evolve into.
(GI) I think the most interesting draft stock to look at is actually from a guy who didn’t play in the tournament at all. Australia’s Dante Exum may actually be benefiting from all the insanity of March Madness. While some debate the performances of many top draft prospects both this year and next year, Exum is patiently sitting on the sideline and letting the chips fall where they may.
(JH) Napier has certainly improved his draft stock a little with his great play throughout the tournament. Another guy that has also improved his stock is Frank Kaminsky. The Wisconsin 7-footer has been fantastic over the past few games. This is the type of player that NBA scouts grow fond of. He can rebound, defend, and hit just about any shot you need him to… all at 7-feet tall. I expect him to climb up the ladder and become an NBA lottery pick. Kaminsky and Napier can improve on their stock even further by carrying their respective teams to a national championship.
3. Which Final Four team is the biggest surprise?
(CM) At this point, I will say that Florida is the only team I am not legitimately surprised to see in the Final Four. I won’t tell you that Wisconsin getting past Arizona was expected, because it wasn’t, but they have played solid against every team they faced. Add to that that they’re a 2 seed, and it’s not a huge shock to see them take down a 1 seed Arizona team that struggled to close out 4 seed San Diego State in the sweet 16, had lost their conference championship to 4 seed UCLA, lost to 7 seed Oregon in early March, and did not have star forward Brandon Ashley available at any point in the tournament. I also won’t say that UConn and superstar Shabazz Napier getting past 4 seed Michigan State after dispatching 3 seed Iowa State and 2 seed Villanova was part of the plan. In their defense, however, they were the last team to beat tournament top overall seed Florida this season and had to survive a conference owned by Louisville that included tournament snub SMU and 8 seed Memphis, so their 7 seed may have been an oversight (defending champ Louisville was a 4 seed, let’s not forget that). 8 seeded Kentucky, on the other hand, lost to Florida three times, including the SEC championship. They were supposed to be a team of selfish “me-first” one and done prep all-stars that had no idea how to play as a team, had spent the whole season looking like a group ready to implode, and were playing for a coach not exactly known for establishing team-first basketball. And now they’ve transformed in to the dark horse with all of the talent, size, speed, and chemistry that no one wants to play against. They looked ready to crumble against Wichita State, the (lone undefeated team in 2013-2014) and a returning Final Four team from a year ago, but they dug deep and prevailed. They could have lost to defending champs and in-state rival Louisville, but they prevailed. They could have lost to Michigan, last year’s tournament runner-up, but they dug deep and prevailed at the very last second. No team has had a tougher road to JerryLand so far, and yet here they are, just two victories shy of becoming the first 8 seed since Villanova in 1985 to win the tournament.
(RC) Wisconsin. After their start to Big Ten play where they lost three in a row and five of six against underperforming teams like Indiana and Northwestern, many people left them for dead. Then they quietly won eight in a row, beating three ranked teams, and got back into the thick of things. That said, their win over Arizona was a tremendous upset, despite it being a 1-seed versus a 2-seed. Wisconsin and coach Bo Ryan should be extremely proud.
(GT) UConn. No question in my mind. If you just went by the book you would say that it’s the 8-seeded Kentucky team. But as I wrote in our first roundtable of the tournament, I believe Kentucky is the most talented 8-seed to ever play in the tournament. UConn came out of nowhere and have beat Villanova (2-seed), Iowa State (3-seed), and Michigan State (4-seed). Their incredible run would be even more incredible with a win over the overall number 1 seed Florida.
(GI) You’d expect me to say Kentucky, as the number 8 seed but I think that Kentucky is just a team that underperformed during the regular season and is finally living up to what many saw for them at the start of the year. It has to be UConn. I didn’t give them a snowball’s chance of making it to the Final Four and yet, here they are. That is the most surprising appearance to me.
(JH) UConn. It took an overtime victory over Saint Joseph’s just to get out of the first round. Here they are a few weeks later set to compete in the final four! That is huge. As we mention in the next question, they are just 1 win away from becoming the first 7 seed to play in the NCAA final. Kentucky has been surprising as well. They have knocked out the number one seed and undefeated Wichita State in the second round; last year’s champion Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen; and the team Louisville beat in the championship a year ago in Michigan to advance to the Final Four. Both of these teams deserve equal praise for their play thus far.
4. UConn needs just one more win to become the first 7 seed in the final. 8 seeded Kentucky needs two more wins to match Villanova’s record setting 1985 championship run. Which underdog do you give a better chance at an upset over number one Florida and number two Wisconsin?
(CM) UConn is the last team to beat Florida, and have everything they need for a repeat performance. That being said, Florida is a different team since that loss and I don’t particularly like the Huskie’s chances in this one. I think they will keep it close but Ryan Boatright has a habit of disappearing when the defense locks down on him, whereas Napier just continues to find openings. If one or both of their thriving backcourt players gets iced, Florida has the shooters and great defense to shutdown the Huskies and take this one, and have proven they can grind out wins. Kentucky, on the other hand, can match Wisconsin in size, speed, and shooting ability; and their depth is second only to their inexperience. Wisconsin may have more upperclassmen, but I expect Kentucky to get the upper hand.
(RC) The way Shabazz Napier is playing, you get the feeling the Huskies could handle any team in the world. Problem is, Florida is the most talented team remaining, and UConn will be pushed to the limit. Meanwhile, Kentucky has three or four pro prospects, and was criminally under seeded in a bracket of nightmares. The Wildcats have the raw talent to overcome Wisconsin, and they are the best bet.
(GT) I give Kentucky the best chance to be the upset winner. They are so talented and they are finally playing as a team. It would not surprise me at all if they are peaking at the right time and take it all. If the Harrison twins can hold on to the ball and not turn it over as much as they have been, this team can beat anybody.
(GI) Again, I think Kentucky is finally playing the basketball we thought they were capable of. They aren’t winning in shocking fashion in any of these games but they are pulling out the close victory. I have to give them the most likely upset against Wisconsin.
(JH) I have been horrible at predicting winning teams in this tournament, so I’m not going to do that. Both teams face quality teams. The way both of these lower seeded teams have come together during this tournament has been fun to watch. This is the Final Four. These are going to be hard fought games. I’m giving the slight edge to Kentucky. From top to bottom, they have a more talented roster than that of UConn and they have all been contributing to the cause this tournament. On UConn’s side, you mostly have Napier just taking over the game. Florida finds a way to slow him down and their chances diminish greatly. And if there is any team left that can slow down Napier, it’s this stingy Florida defense.
5. With just four teams remaining, which two do you expect to see in the final, and who is your tournament champion?
(CM) Florida’s defense and outside shooting will handle UConn, and Kentucky will beat Wisconsin with talent and overall athleticism, and neither game coming down to the last possession will surprise me. In the Final, I expect Kentucky’s size and athleticism to be too much for the Gators. The Wildcats have a ridiculously loaded frontcourt with two 7’ centers (although starter Willie Caldwell-Stein could be out with an injured ankle), an All-American power forward and double-double machine in Randle, James Young at small forward, and their shortest backcourt player is 6’6”, which just happens to be two very talented guards in the Harrison twins. Florida’s tallest player is Young at 6’9”, and as good as he is, I just don’t see how Florida can overcome this with small ball and no one on their roster as good as Randle. Kentucky simply has too much talent and they have accomplished too much to get here to let a team that beat them twice in the regular season and knocked them from the SEC tournament let them take them down again with a national championship on the line.
(RC) When all is said and done, Florida will play Wisconsin in the NCAA Championship Game, and Billy Donovan will be celebrating his third national title as a coach.
(GT) I think that the championship game is going to be Kentucky and Florida. Wisconsin will have a tough time keeping up with the speed and the talent of Kentucky. UConn’s wild ride will end to a team that has 4 senior starters and are playing very cohesive basketball. When it is all said and done I think that the committee was finally right with something and crowned Florida the number 1 overall seed, the Gators will go on to win another championship for Coach Billy Donavon.
(GI) And one of the reasons I didn’t pick UConn as the most likely upset is that I picked Florida at the start of the tournament and I can’t turn away from them now. While there hasn’t been anything throughout this tournament to make anyone feel comfortable about making a pick, I have to stick with my Gators as the best bet. I don’t think UConn has what it takes and I think it will be Florida facing Wisconsin in the championship.
(JH) My champion was Wichita State and sticking to my guns. What? They’re out!? Well that sucks. I’ll root for the underdogs to get to the ship, and whichever makes it, I’ll roll with them in the championship. If they both make it, put me down for Kentucky. Get ready to enjoy some great games, though.
There you have it. Make sure to tune in this weekend as the Men’s NCAA Final Four takes place, and there should be plenty of drama as top seeded Florida Gators take on 7 seed UConn Huskies, and the 2 seed Wisconsin Badgers take on the 8 seed Kentucky Wildcats. Check back with us on Wednesday April 9th, as we recap our favorite moments of the tournament and give our final thoughts on this year’s champion.
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