The 2014-15 NCAA men’s basketball season comes to a close in the next few days as the Final Four takes place tomorrow and our champion will be crowned following the conclusion of the National Championship game on Monday night. This year’s tournament has not been short on talent or drama, and with two of the three Elite Eight matchups coming down to the final minute to be decided (and in one game, overtime), there is plenty of buildup for a grand finale.
With so much in the books and so much still to come, we asked five of OSN’s staff writers to share their thoughts on how the next three games will pan out, who the MVP candidates are, and if any team remaining can tackle the task of ruining Kentucky’s perfect season.
Contributors will be Casey Mabbott (CM), Abe Asher (AA), Garrett Thornton (GT), Nick Poust (NP), and Jason Hartzog (JH).
- Michigan State is the Final Four’s lone “surprise” team against a trio of #1 seeds. Do they have the talent to beat any of the regional favorites?
(CM) They have the talent and Tom Izzo is arguably the best game-manager in the tournament, but his roster severely lacks size and his players aren’t getting taller before game time. That said, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlin’s matchups in the NBA were legendary because Russell found ways to overcome the same disadvantage. Matt Costello is Sparta’s biggest big man at 6’9 245lbs, giving up 2 inches and 25 pounds to Duke center JahlilOkafor, so he’ll have to get creative with his defense. It’s a tall order and Costello just cannot get in to foul trouble as MSU has just one other player at his height, but Duke has a depth problem behind Okafor as well so we’ll see how things go. If they can get past Duke, they have a shot at UW or UK.
(AA) Yes, but it’s not necessarily about talent. Tom Izzo is a genius, and he alone can keep Michigan State in any game. What the Spartans have is an incredible amount of moxie and strength. They play better under pressure, they keep games close, and they always manufacture enough offense to supplement their great defense and win. It’s impossible not to admire this team. Will they be able to beat Duke? Probably not. They don’t have the horses – the Spartans got a lot of terrible offensive teams in their draw, and Duke certainly is not that – but nothing would surprise me. Michigan State is easily one of the stories of the tournament. They were horrifyingly bad until late February. Now, they’re Izzo’s seventh Final Four team.
(GT) No, they don’t have the talent to beat the regional favorites. But…. It is March and crazier things have happened. Tom Izzo is a hell of a coach and is the main reason they have reached the Final Four. When someone tells you that college basketball isn’t about the coaching, point at who is coaching the teams in this year’s Final Four. Elite coaches win on the big stage. In the case of Michigan State, Izzo is winning with subpar talent.
(NP) I don’t think a Tom Izzo team can ever be counted out, and I think they have a good chance to beat Duke. The Spartans lost to the Blue Devils in November 81-71, but they are a different team now. At the time of that loss, they were still reeling from the departure of center Adreian Payne and guards Keith Appling and Gary Harris, but they have since developed a great deal of chemistry while benefiting from the sky-rocketing growth of guard Travis Trice. And they have vastly improved defensively, exemplified by their ability to hold both two-seed Virginia and three-seed Oklahoma under 60 points on their road to the Final Four.
Accompanying their strides defensively is a balanced offense that goes far beyond Trice’s contributions: forward Branden Dawson and guard Denzel Valentine have helped in every statistical category, but as has always been the case with Izzo’s Spartans, it’s the team-wide effort that makes victories possible. His players are always disciplined and efficient, knowing their strengths and taking advantage. The deciding factor against Duke might be how well Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling fair against center JahlilOkafor. Despite being prone to foul out, they didn’t do so in their previous matchup, and if these two 6’9” centers are able to stay on the floor once more and rattle Okafor, Michigan State can move on.
(JH) Yes. They have great guard play and they’re well coached. Tom Izzo is adding to his legendary success in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State will first take on Duke. Duke looks like the favorite in this game. Their big man JahlilOkafor is the best player in the country, and the best NBA prospect, forget what people tell you of Karl-Anthony Towns. The Spartans will have their hands full trying to guard him. But if Okafor has another game like his past two, I like the Spartans in this one. Okafor will have to be more aggressive to try and get Michigan State’s bigs in foul trouble or at least demand double teams in order to get open shooters. State has a great guard in Travis Trice, and he has been key in their tournament success averaging 19.8 PPG. Trice won’t be able to carry the load himself. He’ll need help from guards like Denzel Valentine and another great shooting performance from Bryn Forbes off the bench to win this one. Michigan State is a little undersized to cover the likes of Okafor, and that is my only concern with them. But I love underdogs, so go Spartans.
- With just three games remaining, who is your MVP of the 2015 tournament so far?
(CM) Frank Kaminsky. His numbers may not be stellar when you factor in field goal percentage and shot attempts versus minutes played, but he has led his team to victory each and every time they have asked him to. UNC and Arizona provided two brutally tough tests and his teammates more than did their parts, but he answered the call when things got ugly and has his Badgers in the Final Four for the second consecutive season. This guy knows how special a playoff run is in college basketball and heart goes a lot of miles when your season is on the line. I challenge you to find anyone that has more heart to go with their athletic ability than Kaminsky.
(AA) Karl-Anthony Towns single-handily ruined Notre Dame and saved Kentucky’s season. The Irish couldn’t guard him. His was a show of force down the stretch that we’ve yet to see in the tournament – and that Duke hasn’t really needed yet – from JahlilOkafor. Frank Kaminsky, however, is a better college player than them both.
That said, it’s hard to pick just one. Every team that had a great tournament has their own MVPs, and if you’re still playing into a third, fourth, or fifth game, everyone on your team has had to step up and contribute.
(GT) This is so hard. There are so many guys that have had major contributions. With 64 games in the books for the 2015 tournament, there are countless storylines. The guy that has really intrigued me is Duke FreshmanJustise Winslow. He has come up clutch for a Duke team that is loaded with talent. During the regular season he was overshadowed by Tyus Jones, JahlilOkafor, and Quinn Cook. In the Tourney, Winslow has stepped up and made a name for himself.
(NP) Though teammate Frank Kaminsky has put together a convincing case, Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker is the MVP thus far, averaging nearly 22 points per game while connecting on 13 of 27 three-point attempts. He is shooting an incredible 60 percent from the field in the tourney’s four games, and the Badgers wouldn’t be in the Final Four without his dominating performance from the perimeter.
(JH) Well, at the end of round of 32, my MVP was Jahlil. After two straight poor performances, he drops out of the race. Trice is a guy that gets bumped up a bit. But he still hasn’t performed like this kid from Wisconsin, and I’m not talking about player of the year Frank Kaminsky (although he probably deserves it just as much). Sam Dekker has been great all tournament. These past two games, he has taken over late and been the main reason for Wisconsin advancing in two close games. Dekker was ridiculous at the end of that Arizona game, shutting out all hope of Arizona having a chance to win that one – as I remember him draining two long, contested 3’s. No one will beat them with him shooting like that. He is averaging 21.8 in the tournament so far. Can there be an offensive MVP and a defensive MVP? Because if so, I want to recognize Willie Cauley-Stein for his defense (at least 2 blocks in every game this tourney).
- Kentucky’s undefeated season was nearly derailed against Notre Dame. Which of the three remaining teams stands the best chance to ruin their perfect season?
(CM) I don’t love the Spartans’ chances against Duke let alone Kentucky, but I like Duke and Wisconsin’s chances at taking down the Wildcats, with the edge going to Wisconsin. Depth, height, and outside shooting are going to be the best way to beat UK, and Wisconsin has six players on their active roster standing at least 6’8” whereas Duke has just three. Three of Wisconsin’s best outside shooters are 7’ Kaminsky, 6’9 Sam Dekker, and 6’8 Nigel Hayes, so they should be able to launch some shots over the Kentucky trees. Duke’s bestoutside shooters accounted for 271 of their 277 made treys this season, and the tallest player in that group is 6’6”, which is the same height as UK’s starting backcourt duo. If Duke’s guards are the only consistent perimeter shooters, the Blue Devils could be in deep trouble if Okafor struggles against UK’s frontcourt.
(AA) Duke, simply because they have the most talent and the highest ceiling. When the Blue Devils are on – their home game against that same Notre Dame team, for instance – they have a gear that even Kentucky can’t match. The Blue Devils are playing well, they have better chemistry than in years past, and they’ll give Kentucky their hardest game of the year if they both get to Monday.
Both Michigan State, and especially Wisconsin do things well too. The Badgers can shoot and have the size to play Kentucky’s frontcourt, while the Spartans’ defense could make it hard for Kentucky’s offense – rarely lights out anyway – to score. Kentucky can be beaten.
(GT) My bold prediction coming into the tournament was that Kentucky would win every single game by double digits. That was busted by the nail-biter against Notre Dame. I think that that close call motivates the Wildcats and they will dominate the next two games they play to win the National Title. But of the teams remaining, Wisconsin has the best chance to knock off the favorites. Wisconsin is loaded with veteran talent that won’t fold against the tenacity of Kentucky. If Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky shoot the ball like they did against Arizona, they can upset the Big Blue Nation.
(NP) Figuring out who has the best chance to beat Kentucky comes down to which team can keep Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns off the boards. The two have arms that appear not to end, and bulk on their 7’ and 6’11” frames to clean up misses by the opposition and get out in transition in addition to maneuvering through overmatched defenses for offensive rebounds and resulting putbacks. Wisconsin might be the only team left that can stand in their way.
Their hopes come down to the play of center Frank Kaminsky. He has to find a way to score against Cauley-Stein and Towns, and he must stay out of foul trouble. And even if he succeeds, Wisconsin needs Dekker, who scored 27 points against Arizona, to remain in the zone. It is also pivotal for Nigel Hayes and Josh Gasser to produce more than they did against Arizona. The duo combined to score 18 points, but the Badgers need even more. That’s how good Kentucky is.
(JH) Wisconsin holds the best chance to beat them. Dekker has played sidekick to Kaminsky, but Dekker has heated up this tournament and been near equal to if not better during this tournament. Dekker’s play late in games is what gives him the edge in my MVP voting. They are playing great and will be tough to beat. At the end of the day, I still like Kentucky to win it all. With their length and defensive ability, they will be able to make the adjustments necessary. Both of these teams have been able to play in close games and prevail all season long. So this will be a dog fight in the end. I can’t wait for this one.
- There is an abundance of potential lottery picks in the Final Four this year, which players can help or hurt their draft stack as the season comes to a close?
(CM) Okafor and Towns are likely to go one and two no matter what, but numbers can be inflated in college when facing inferior height and talent, so scouts and GM’s alike need to take notice how they fare against comparable players with the season on the line. To be realistic, Towns, Okafor, Kaminsky, and Caulie-Stein are the best-bet franchise-cornerstones that could be in the June draft, and generally speaking, the guys that scouts drooled over in the preseason will be taken in the top 10 on potential alone. Given how last year’s tournament and draft went, I’d be shocked to see any of their stock drop due to a bad game or two the rest of the way or to see an underrated player boost their stock with an incredible month (see Napier, Shabazz).
(AA) Everyone can help or hurt their draft stock in the Final Four because, obviously, everyone is watching. Some players have more to gain than others, of course, and not just at the top of the draft with the Towns-Okafor battle. Plenty of Kentucky’s players will be jockeying for draft position – often with each other – and how well they do could very well determine whether Calipari loses half his team, or all of it.
(GT) Sam Dekker has really helped his stock so far in the tournament. Tyus Jones of Duke has proven to be a capable ball handler and point guard. Karl-Anthony Towns might be the best player in the nation. But there is one player that has the most to prove. Frank Kaminsky is a known commodity in the college game. What role he will fill in the NBA is still in question. Is he a stretch-four? Can he play center against bigger and stronger players? Kaminsky has almost a cult following in Wisconsin and around the nation. But his performance the next game, or two, could really help mold opinions of him moving to the next level.
(NP) Aside from suffering an injury, there is no way Towns or Cauley-Stein can hurt their stock. Dekker and Kaminsky can certainly benefit from solid performances against Kentucky, but it’s JahlilOkafor who has the most to gain from effectiveness on the big stage. His flaws were exposed against Utah and Gonzaga, two teams that matched up well size-wise against his 6’11” frame. He failed to score in double digits in both contests, mustering just six points against the Utes and nine against Gonzaga. If he were to overpower Schilling and Costello, and do damage against Kaminsky or Kentucky’s giants if they were to meet, Okafor would go a long ways to reaffirming his projection as a top-three pick.
(JH) Let’s list some of these guys, Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Frank Kaminsky are probably the main 3. Okafor has said to slip behind Towns now as Towns is being listed as the number 1 prospect as of late. I still like Okafor over him, so I guess Okafor has hurt his stock, but it’s still real close and it will be figured out during the draft process. Kaminsky continues to impress, he looked good last year, and I thought he might hurt his stock by returning, but I think he’s improved it. Willie Cauley-Stein has shown that with his defense and rebounding, he can be a force in the NBA. Travis Trice has improved his draft stock as well, probably to a mid-late first rounder. Same goes for Sam Dekker. It’s not very often that your team can get to the final four and, being a top-prospect, you hurt your draft stock, so all these guys have done nothing but improved theirs.
- Which two teams prevail on Saturday and who wins Monday’s National Championship?
(CM) Call me crazy but I see Wisconsin doing what many believe to be impossible and taking down mighty mighty Kentucky. Kaminsky and Dekker are playing like there is no tomorrow, and I just don’t see the same “every single possession matters” mentality from UK, even during their scary 39 point win over WVU, which makes it even scarier. Duke will handle Sparta but not easily, and that will set the table for a showdown between big men Kaminsky and Okafor on Monday night, even if the nation really wanted to see Okafor vs Caulie-Stein & Towns in the battle of the giants. It will be close and Wisconsin will never run away with it, but the confetti will be Badgers’ colors at the close with Wisconsin’s seven foot senior leading the way and winning the MVP.
(AA) Duke and Kentucky have been the two best teams in the country all year, and they should meet for the national championship. That game – and it’s been an extraordinarily highly rated tournament so far – could draw NFL Playoff level ratings. Everyone would be pulling for Duke, which would make things strange to begin with. And Coach K beating Calipari and denying the Wildcats a 40-0 season? Just jarring enough to be the perfect conclusion to this year’s March Madness.
(GT)Michigan State is the surprise team to make it this far, but that run ends on Saturday against Duke. Duke comes in with more talent and size. Duke wins by 8.
Wisconsin is built in a way that they could make life difficult for John Calipari and the Wildcats. However, Kentucky’s depth causes problems for the Badgers and run away with the game in the 2nd half. Kentucky wins by 12.
Duke vs. Kentucky is a match of heavyweights and it will be one for the ages. Those two teams, both dressed in blue and white, will be a matchup of unbelievable talent. How many future NBA players will be on the court in that matchup? 10? 12? More? Unreal. And a matchup that we are all hoping and praying for. At the end of the night on Monday Kentucky wins by 7 and cuts down the nets in Indiana.
(NP) I’ve bet against Izzo too many times to go against him this Saturday. Michigan State is just a well-oiled machine. The Spartans big men will frustrate Okafor, continuing his unsightly tourney trend. As for Kentucky’s tussle with Wisconsin, I think the Wildcats will pull out the victory. As good as Kaminsky and Dekker have been, Kentucky’s length inside and height on the wings could easily lead to a spurt the Badgers can’t overcome.
That pits Sparty against Kentucky for the championship. While Izzo could pull another rabbit out of the hat, this is a bad matchup for Michigan State, no matter how intelligent they play on both ends. The Harrison twins, Aaron and Andrew, loom over Trice and Valentine, with the length to affect jumpers and the lateral quickness to stall their drives. Additionally, Cauley-Stein and Towns have the talent to dominant Michigan’s frontline. As a result, Kentucky should succeed in accomplishing something many thought inevitable: the perfect season.
(JH) Okay, so I honestly think Duke and Kentucky will meet in the championship game with Kentucky taking it all. BUT, I’m rooting hard for Michigan State for many reasons. First, I just don’t like Duke. Second, I love underdogs. Third, I am in a bracket pool that will pay me if Kentucky and Michigan State meet in the championship because I am currently in first with Kentucky winning, but a Duke win puts me behind. So go Michigan State. Either way, Kentucky wins the championship after narrowly getting by Wisconsin.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
