The Portland Trail Blazers have just over a month remaining on their regular season schedule, currently stand at 34-31 (.523), and hold the 6th seed in the Western Conference. It’s fair to say that this is a different on-court product than the one that took the court on opening day, and it’s anyone’s guess as to where they will go from here with the playoffs just around the corner.
OSN staff writers Casey Mabbott (CM), Garrett Thornton (GT), Abe Asher (AA), and Patrick McEachern (PM) collaborated to look at Portland’s current streak, how they stack up in the Western Conference playoff race, Damian Lillard’s impact on the team and the league, and how they view this season as a whole.
- Portland has 17 games remaining on their schedule with their season wrapping up at home on April 13th. As they stand today, do you see this team as a playoff contender?
(CM) Barring a major setback, this is a playoff team in the Western Conference, and control their own playoff destiny at this point. Once in the dance, I do not expect to see them get past their first round opponent, but I also did not expect them to win 30+ games this season, so we’ll just see what they have in store for us when the time comes. However the rest of this season plays out, we’ll know how much heart and confidence this team has going in to next year.
(GT) Yes I see the Blazers as a team that can contend for a playoff spot. But a team that can contend in the playoffs? No. I have learned not to doubt Damian Lillard but I have a hard time seeing this young team going into the playoffs and creating many problems in a first round matchup against the Golden State Warriors or the San Antonio Spurs. Those aren’t only the two best teams in the league right now, they are two of the best teams to ever play in this league. I do think this team ultimately gets into the playoffs, gets a little playoff experience for the young guys, but has a tough time competing when the lights get brighter and the competition gets stiffer.
(AA) As a playoff team? Absolutely. A playoff contender? Maybe.The Blazers are going to enter the playoffs with plenty of upset potential. That’s because Portland has an unusual amount of pop – at their best, as we’ve seen a number of times this year, they’re capable of drilling any team in the league. So while the prospects of the Blazers stringing together four Golden State-esque games in the postseason are slim, I’d rather bet the Blazers than any other six, seven, or eight seed in the league. Not only does Portland have Damian Lillard, but Terry Stotts’ coaching is also going to be a major plus in a playoff series. They’re capable of beating anyone, and they know it. And with nothing to lose, there’s no reason they won’t go for broke.
(PM) As a contender to make the playoffs? Absolutely. They currently sit 6th in the west, and are arguably playing better than anyone outside the top 4 in the conference. While the schedule definitely doesn’t provide many breaks for the Blazers down the homestretch, at this point, it would have to be considered pretty disappointing if the Blazers were to not make the playoff bracket. Now, as a contender to actually make some noise in the playoffs? No, not a chance. While the Blazers are playing well and exceeding expectations, they are still mostly a motley crew of overachievers. Considering the quartet of elite teams that sit atop the conference, avoiding a sweep is likely the best case scenario in just about any prospective playoff matchup.
- All signs point to Portland losing their top-14 protected pick to Denver this summer. If the Trail Blazers make the playoffs, is there a silver lining to losing the pick?
(CM) If they make the playoffs, that is the silver lining. Fans and experts were calling this team “gutted” after GM Neil Olshey opted against calling back last year’s starting five, who had peaked in 2013. Fast forward nine months, and the results are similar enough to last season that even the most skeptical fan has to be feeling hopeful about the future. “Lillard Time” is an every game all-game trend now, and opponents are having to pay serious attention to Portland’s tremendously talented backcourt duo. Because of Portland’s current success and the trade last season for Arron Afflolo, Denver owns this pick, time to move on.
(GT) The only silver lining would be playoff experience for the young guys. Other than that, not a whole lot. Losing the pick is going to sting a bit for this team. General Manager Neil Olshey has drafted really well for Portland. Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard and CJ McCollum are all first round picks by Olshey. Then even more impressively was Olshey finding and drafting Will Barton and Allen Crabbe in the second round. Entering the draft this year without a pick will be a hindrance in the rebuild of this team.
(AA) The silver lining is that the team is in the playoffs. Of course it’s better to have first round picks than not have first round picks, but this team isn’t exactly in need of more raw talent — and chances are that a mid to late first round pick wouldn’t be able to contribute meaningfully next season anyway. With their cap space, the Blazers can and should be able to acquire the veterans they need to fill out their roster. In any case, the playoff trip is going to be a very meaningful one for this team, not to mention its fanbase, and it should offset the cost of missing out on the first round.
(PM) It’s never a good thing to lose a 1st round draft pick, particularly in a trade for a player who left town after only a few months. For a team thrust into rebuild mode by a free agent exodus and thus looking to add as much talent as possible to their roster, that draft pick could be invaluable, even if it only landed in the mid-first round. Considering they also gave up 6th Man of the Year favorite Will Barton in the deal, doesn’t make the situation any better. Playoff experience is nice, but, getting worked over in 4 or 5 games by a Golden State, San Antonio or Oklahoma City isn’t likely to provide much for this developing team, other than seeing just how far they have to go. The silver lining, if there is one, is that a surprising playoff appearance shows the team is ahead of the curve in its rebuild, and might be more attractive to a potential “needle-moving” free agent acquisition as the Blazers appear closer to legitimately contending than previously thought. Of course, at this point, that value is purely theoretical while a draft pick’s value is much more quantifiable.
- Lillard’s All-Star snub ignited a demolishing of Golden State, but Portland seems to have cooled off a bit having gone 0-3 to close out their six game road trip. Is their 6-4 record in their first 10 games since the All-Star break a fair representation of this Portland team?
(CM) Yes, a 3-0, 0-1, 3-0, 0-3 trend over 10 games is absolutely a fair representation of this team this year. There have been a lot of ups and downs, but there have been more ups than downs with this surprise team and while it hasn’t always been sound fundamental basketball, these kids are a lot of fun to watch and have been in a lot of games the experts said they had no chance in. Perhaps it’s overconfidence on the parts of their opponents, or perhaps this gang of unproven players and castoffs is better than they originally looked on paper. Either way, the result is looking a lot like a playoff berth and a winning record, something only the most radical of die-hard fans would have dared to predict in October.
(GT) A fair representation? I guess you could say that. But Portland was a victim of a bad schedule at the end of that road trip. They had 4 games in 5 nights. They were gassed against Boston, outmatched against Toronto, and flat outplayed against Detroit in the final game of the road trip. The intrigue of this Portland team is that they can beat any team on any night. They proved that a couple weeks back by blowing out Golden State. But just like a lot of other young teams in the league, they are likely to stub their toe every once in a while and lose to a team that they should beat. The next few weeks will teach us a lot about this team. With a ton of matchups against Western Conference opponents, we will see just how badly this team wants to make the playoffs.
(AA) Yes. If the season started today, I think the Blazers would win about 60% of their games. The record is certainly more representative than the schedule, which would be hard for any NBA team to successfully navigate.
(PM) So, a slightly above .500 squad? Sure, I’ll buy that. With so many new faces in the lineup entering the season, it’s to be expected there would be some growing pains with the new roster, as exemplified by their 11-20 record through Christmas. Since then, though, things have started to click as the team has registered an impressive 22-11 mark. While the Blazers aren’t the 55-win team their recent pace would suggest, they have proven themselves over the past two-plus months to be better than the .500 team their overall record signifies. Extrapolating the 6-4 post All-Star break record to an 82-game season, would put the Blazers at about 49 wins, which may still be a touch on the optimistic side, but, would probably be a pretty realistic goal for this team if a new season started today. Which is pretty crazy to think about, since most debate among Blazer fans heading into this season was centered on whether or not this team could hit the 30-win mark. One thing is for certain, you gotta give Terry Stotts and Damian Lillard a ton of credit for this team’s demolition of expectations.
- Damian Lillard’s current season averages are 36.1 minutes, 26.1 points, 6.9 assists, 37.5% from beyond the arc, 87.9% from the free throw line, and 43.1% from the field. At his current pace, is he a legitimate contender for league MVP?
(CM) In any other season, this would be a no-brainer, because that would be an MVP line. But Steph Curry is not having just another season, so I can’t realistically throw Lillard in with the guy running away with the MVP. Other than Curry, it would be impossible to find a player more important to his team than Lillard, so I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t lead the 2nd place votes. Since the all-star break, Lillard has just two games out of 11 with fewer than 25 points and has scored at least 20 in all of them. He has recorded 30+ points 6 times, a forty-burger against Washington, and has two games with 50 against Golden State and Toronto. He is also averaging 4.7 assists per game over that stretch. It’s not a season-long sample size, but if he keeps this up, he might steal some MVP votes from Curry, and he might take more than a few “Most Improved Player” votes away from backcourt mate CJ McCollum.
(GT) Absolutely. The MVP award is skewed in a lot of ways. It isn’t the “Best Player in the League Award”, or the “Who has the Most Highlights Award”. The Most Valuable Player award should go to the player that is truly most valuable to their team. You could make the case that no other player is more important to their team than Damian Lillard is to the Blazers. This team lost 4 starters over the summer and is pushing for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. That is 100% because of Lillard’s leadership and tenacity. The award will end up going to Steph Curry, and that is completely warranted. Curry is the best player on the best team ever. But Lillard should definitely be in the discussion.
(AA) Yes, absolutely. He’s got a good coach and a handful of good players around him, but Lillard’s accomplishment in making this Blazers team relevant this year shouldn’t be overlooked. Lillard hasn’t just played at an incredibly high level; he’s also emerged as a leader. This is his team, crafted in his image. Lillard is responsible for much of Portland’s success – and especially the unlikely success of the young players around him.
(PM) Let’s get one thing out of the way, first: There is only one truly legitimate MVP candidate this season, and his name is Wardell Stephen Curry II. You can call him Steph, for short. If he isn’t a unanimous choice, then there’s something wrong with the voting process. So, no, Lillard shouldn’t be considered a legit contender for MVP, but, neither should LeBron James or Kevin Durant or James Harden or anyone else. With that said, he’s certainly playing at a level which would normally put you in the conversation. And, in years without all-time great seasons by first ballot Hall of Famers, he just might even have a chance. He currently sits 5th in the league in scoring, 8th in assists and 3rd in 3-pointers made, all while leading what most expected to be one of the worst teams in the league to a potential 6 seed in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference. Now, if you consider that each MVP voter is tasked with listing 5 candidates, Lillard should certainly be in consideration for some non-1st place votes, especially if his hot streak continues through the end of the season. That in and of itself is pretty remarkable, and tells you just how great Lillard has been this season.
- If Portland makes the playoffs, how do you rate this season as a whole? Does missing the playoffs change how you see this team?
(CM) Playoffs or not, I would give this team a very solid B. They have surpassed every expectation people had for them this season, and are still working towards the playoffs, a place NO ONE saw them going this early, especially with every star player in the West healthy. At the conclusion of their regular season, whether they are in the playoffs or not, they deserve a standing ovation from their fans as they walk off the court. Kudos to Neil Olshey for taking a big chance on a very young and unproven team when some other GM’s would have resorted to over paying a star and bringing in every veteran they could sign to create a patchwork team with no hopes of winning anything meaningful (looking at you, Knicks and Lakers).
(GT) This season has been a huge success for the Blazers. The folks in Vegas put Portland’s win total over/under at 26.5. They have obviously far exceeded that. The entire team, from front office to coaching staff to the players, deserve a ton of credit. This franchise is in very good hands going forward. At this point, making the playoffs would be icing on the cake. Missing the playoffs would sting, but the lottery pick would lessen that sting a bit.
(AA) This season has already exceeded all expectations, but from where they stand today, the Blazers should make the playoffs. Anything less would be disappointing – and indicate that the incredible progress made in the last four months more tenuous than we’d like to believe it is. But if they do close the deal and make the playoffs, the Blazers should and will be awfully proud of what they accomplished this season. From the GM, to the Head Coach, to the best player, the leadership in this franchise right now is enviable – and with all the cap room they’ll have going into the offseason, a playoff appearance would be a springboard towards an extremely bright future.
(PM) In the grand scheme of things, whether or not the Blazers make it to the playoffs this season matters not a bit. For a team who was expected to struggle to get to 30 wins, this season has already been a resounding success. Damian Lillard has elevated his game to that of a true superstar, CJ McCollum has exploded into one of the premier young scorers in the game (and is a virtual lock for the league’s Most Improved Player award), and just about every one of their offseason acquisitions has proven to be better than anticipated. What once looked to be a 3 or 4 year rebuild project, now looks to be more of a 2 year retool. Not only that, Lillard and McCollum have established themselves as one of the top young backcourts in the league, which is no doubt enticing to the big money free agents Neil Olshey will be courting in the offseason. With or without a playoff run, the Blazers have managed to keep themselves nationally relevant despite losing 5 of their 6 top scorers off of last year’s 51-win team, and that’s no small feat in itself. Regardless of how the last few weeks play out, this Blazer team (and their fans) can hold their head high and know that the future is bright in Rip City.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
