The start of the 2014-15 NBA season is just around the corner, with league games this Tuesday, October 28th. Portland tips off against the Oklahoma City Thunder on the 29th, and there have been many questions as to what we will see from the Trail Blazers this season. Will they take a step forward or a step back? Is this the last year we see LaMarcus Aldridge in Portland? Will the free agent signings be enough to get them past the other elite teams? The OSN roundtable crew (Casey Mabbott (CM), Garrett Thornton (GT), Jason Hartzog (JH), and Anthony Burrola (AB)) answers those and other pressing questions, to help set your expectations for this year’s Portland Trail Blazers.
- After going 54-28 in 2013-14 and winning their first playoff series since 2000, what are your expectations for the 2014-15 Portland Trail Blazers?
(CM) In a contract year for LaMarcus Aldridge, it has to be title or bust, this year. The Blazers have been called a good team for a while now, and with an entire season under their belt together, last year’s starting five should have higher expectations than just matching what they accomplished last season, surprise team or not. This team finished as an elite top-8 team last year, and with several players (including two starters) playing on expiring deals, this team and its chemistry could look very different by next season. Regardless of whether we see LA in a Blazers uniform next year, it would be great to see him match the MVP numbers he put up against Houston in the playoffs, over an entire season. Aldridge simply looked un-guardable against the Rockets, and if he can stay healthy and play that way for an entire season with his great supporting cast, getting to the NBA Finals is exactly what Portland is capable of, especially in a Western Conference lacking a true juggernaut.
(GT) Expectations are a dangerous thing but we are obsessed with them. Rip City is definitely alive and there are a lot of true fanatics that expect this team to make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Personally, I think that last year the Blazers didn’t necessarily overachieve, but things definitely fell into place as well as they could have. Coming into last season the expectation was that they would battle for the 8th or 9th seed in the West, obviously that was off. My expectation for this season is that the team will be extremely competitive, make the playoff and be a difficult matchup.
(JH) I expect a slightly improved team in 2014-15. Most people say that the Blazers overachieved last year and are likely to take a step back this season. I disagree with that. The team is full of plenty of youth and as they continue to grow, so will the team as a whole. They also added veteran help this offseason that will be crucial to their development going forward – more on that in the next question. I expect to see the Blazers grab a top-4 seed, giving them home court advantage for the playoffs. And if they can take the Northwest division from the Oklahoma City Thunder, then I am giving them a good chance of even making it to the western conference finals. Anything other than another second round trip will be a disappointment.
(AB) Another year older, more playoff tested, and with lineup continuity means Portland will be a better team. Being a better team doesn’t always mean having a better record because outside factors can influence that, but it does mean being a bigger threat when it matters. These Blazers can be that. I’m not bullish on their chances to get past round two again, or beat the Spurs, Clippers, Warriors, or Thunder in a playoff series, but they could beat the Rockets again. And if they do face off against one of the four teams to which I feel they would lose, only the Spurs would make it look easy. Again. They matchup well on paper with the Warriors. I thought after last year that the ceiling for Damian Lillard is a slightly lesser version of Steph Curry, but with more durability and athleticism. Call me crazy, but the two can light up the scoreboard in similar fashion for their positions, and are much different than the other point guards who can jack it up, namely Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. They’re both money, and Dame could demonstrate some serious growth in efficiency this season.
- GM Neil Olshey brought in free agent signees Chris Kaman and Steve Blake to bolster depth. Are these the players Portland needs to get to the Conference finals and beyond?
(CM) If Aldridge and Lillard can improve on their already impressive 2013-14 seasons, then the answer is a resounding yes. While he lacks good man-to-man defense, Kaman is a big body that can plug the lane and is an above average scorer for a reserve center on the offensive side. Blake will run the offense with ease when called upon and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blazers try running him as the PG and Lillard as the SG in smaller lineups. I wouldn’t want either player as a starter, but as a reserve they fit the bill perfectly. The Blazers lacked depth in the frontcourt last season and especially in the playoff series against San Antonio, but now with six healthy players standing 6’10 or taller, including three 7’ centers, they have as much depth as any team. Whether it is quality depth, we’ll find out later in the year.
(GT) Kaman and Blake are veterans that both add experience and solid fundamentals to an otherwise young bench. Kaman is a very talented offensive post player, he’s a great passer in the post and will add another element to the bench. Blake is a familiar face in Portland that will be the primary ball handler off of the bench. Blake will be a much better fit for the Blazer offense than Mo Williams was last year. Williams took a lot of shots that should have gone to young guys like CJ McCollum and Will Barton. Blake will be a much better distributor. Expecting these two to be the difference between a first round victory last year to a Conference finals this year is a bit unfair. These two are role players and won’t move the needle that much.
(JH) The team was in need of some veteran frontcourt help, and they got it in Chris Kaman. I like what I’ve seen from him so far. He is a solid backup to Robin Lopez, although, his limitations against teams that stretch the court will similar to those of Lopez’s. Portland had a lot of trouble with stretch fours and fives last year. I don’t think much will change there, unless Stotts plays around with the rotation more. Kaman still has some game left in him. He is definitely a plus to either Meyers Leonard or Joel Freeland (whoever would have cracked the rotation if they hadn’t signed Kaman). Last year Leonard showed that he wasn’t anywhere near ready to compete for a contender, signing Kaman allows him to get a little more time to develop before getting thrown out there. Steve Blake was a solid fill in for the departed Mo Williams. However, I would have liked to see someone who is more defensive minded to give Portland a change of pace at PG. With Blake in the lineup, the one thing you’ll notice is more ball movement. Mo tried doing a little too much at times, that won’t happen with Blake, he’ll actually get the second unit more involved. When the backups don’t have it going, that was when Mo could do his thing and produce. That aspect will be missed, and someone will have to step up in that role. Overall I do see Blake as a slight upgrade to Mo Williams, and for a cheaper price, too.
(AB) While Steve Blake is a welcome addition and will do more than Mo Williams did in that role for the Blazers, Chris Kaman will be decidedly less effective. He’s a very skilled player with a good back-to-the basket game, amazing left hand, and decent face-up jumper, but he rarely plays a full season. He’s more injury-prone than Steve Nash. Oh wait…
Seriously, though, the Blazers did what they could. The Blazers should be happy they landed Blake and Kaman as the two will provide some valuable rest for the two most important players on their team, Dame and Aldridge. The veteran leadership will only enhance what were already fantastic seasons from the aforementioned stars, and Blake’s defensive intensity will be a positive influence on Lillard, who has the tools to be a solid on-the-ball defender, if nothing else. His athleticism is sneaky, while his quickness is deadly. Time to get TU, as the kids say.
- Realistically, this could be the last season you see Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nic Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Robin Lopez in the same starting five. With Aldridge, Lopez, and Matthews playing on expiring contracts and all five needing to be re-signed by the summer of 2016, who can you afford to keep? Who can you not afford to lose?
(CM) You have to keep Aldridge and Lillard, but the other three need to accept lesser deals or skip town. It’s a cold way to look at it, but the NBA is a cold business. Lopez’s injury history is going to catch up with him, and Batum just never became the dominant all-around player his contract suggested he was en route to. Matthews is a good player but has become sporadic in his defense since he started concentrating on offense. He can’t be replaced easily, but he’s unlikely to take the deal Portland needs him to accept in order to keep him in house.
(GT) Honestly, I don’t see why the Blazers wouldn’t be able to keep all three. What they have with this starting lineup is something special. The only wrench in this would be if Lopez demands $10+ million a year. The market for centers will determine that. You need to sign Aldridge, no question there. Matthews is a pretty integral part of this team as a leader and spark plug. With the anticipated jump in the salary cap in two years, and with one of the richest owners in professional sports, the Blazers need to spend some money to keep this roster together.
(JH) This is a solid starting five, but yes, the reality of the situation is that you won’t see all five together past this season. I’m taking the obvious pick by saying that LaMarcus is the one guy you can’t afford to lose. He’s been the stud of the team for the past 4-5 years. Losing him would be a major setback, and likely put the Blazers back in the NBA Draft Lottery for 2016. While looking at the free-agency class next offseason, the shooting guard position is very thin and the center position is the deepest position available. Starters like Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol, Robin Lopez, and DeAndre Jordan are all unrestricted free agents. Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, and Al Jeffereson all have player options that could make them unrestricted free agents as well. This could be a very deep and talented center class available this offseason. For that reason, I believe Robin could be the most expendable of the three. With that said, if you choose to take a chance on Marc Gasol (who I would take if given a choice of all the above), then that also puts you out of money to re-sign Matthews. Is Gasol worth the price of Lopez and Matthews? That’s a tough call. It depends on how C.J McCollum and Will Barton perform this year to make a call like that. Even then, I don’t know. I guess that’s why guys like Neil Olshey make the big bucks.
(AB) Robin Lopez provides the kind of toughness inside that this team has been lacking, but they’re not winning a chip as currently constructed. While Dame might be the sexy answer, this team starts and ends with Lamarcus Aldridge. There’s no way they let either of these guys go. I still don’t see them winning as currently constructed, LA has developed into a stud. Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum both help spread the floor, but this team doesn’t lack for jump shooters any longer. Either of these guys can be replaced by a cheaper version, but Batum might be the guy you want to keep for those potential playoff match ups with Kevin Durant.
- Portland sent two players to the All-Star game for the first time in 20 years last season. Do they send three this year?
(CM) Aldridge and Lillard will be selected, but I have doubts Batum or Matthews can put up the numbers they’ll need to get selected, especially given their competition at their positions in the Western Conference.
(GT) No they won’t. The Western Conference is crazy talented. There are 12 guys on an All-Star roster. Sending three players (25% of the entire roster) is a crazy expectation. It should be celebrated that the Blazers sent two last year, and will most likely send the same two this year.
(JH) They will return Aldridge and Lillard, but not send three. Their best chance is that Nicolas Batum leaps to an efficient offensive threat. I don’t expect that to happen. He’ll have his nights, as usual, and continue to fill the stats sheet, but to be an all-star he must take that step forward offensively. I would like to see Wesley Matthews in the 3-point contest, though. At that point, the Blazers would have 3 players represent them on all-star weekend. Does that count?
(AB) Who would be the third? Come on now. Lopez should never be on an All-Star roster, even in the crappy east, Wesley Matthews will never start over Kobe Bryant, who has China’s undying love and adoration, especially with the addition of Jeremy Lin (who might get voted in, be it deservedly or not-and the odds lean heavily against it being deserved), and Klay Thompson and James Harden are not going to just fall off the planet. Matthews? Out.
Batum? No way. With the Durants, Leonards, Dirks, Cousins, Gays, Duncans, Parsons, and whatever other random forwards that are available in the west, I just don’t see it happening.
As Westbrook would say, “No more questions for you, bro.”
- Give your prediction for the 2014-15 Portland Trail Blazers’ season.
(CM) Second round playoff finish. Blake and Kaman are upgrades over the team’s depth from a year ago, but it’s not enough to get past the other elite teams in the conference. Unless Aldridge starts putting up young Tim Duncan numbers, it’s just not going to be enough, the Blazers’ quantity over quality approach to their roster is getting them places, but it’s simply not getting them to the top. A major free agent signing (Marc Gasol?) at center is what this team needs to get Aldridge and Lillard to the heights that they and the fans deserve.
(GT) I think this is a very competitive team that can beat anybody on a given night. However, there are going to be times when the Blazers rely too much on their offense, and when the shots aren’t falling, they will lose some games. The thing that set last year’s Blazers apart was the fast first half of the season. They tailed off down the stretch a bit and ended in 5th. If this team can avoid major injuries like they did last year, they can match their performance from last year. I personally think they take a small step back. I think they will win 48-52 games and end up being the 6th seed in the West. Matched up against one of the top teams in the West, they will have a very tough and competitive first round matchup.
(JH) The Blazers will take the Northwest Division for the first time ever. It will be their first division title since the 1998-99 lockout season in which they went 35-15 and won the Pacific Division. Back when the Charlotte Hornets were still around, so were the Seattle SuperSonics. The Grizzlies were still in Vancouver and the Nets were still in New Jersey. A lot has changed since then. The one thing that hasn’t changed is the love for the Blazers in Rip City. That, combined with the injury to Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant will help give Portland a good cushion heading into the month of December. The Blazers have 11 home games to 6 road games to start the season. From there, they must sustain that momentum. The Thunder will have issues dealing with Durant’s absence. Westbrook is a great player, but when you give him all the shots and then take half of them away, they’re going to have problems. Chemistry between the two (Durant and Westbrook) has yet to look like a smooth ride in their careers, that won’t change this year. Looking at the rest of the division, I don’t see the Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, or Minnesota Timberwolves being much of a threat.
(AB) Same. Exact. Result. But they’ll look better doing it.
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