Out of the Cellar Part One: The Ceiling

Greetings Cougar Nation. I hope you all are having a great week–the last before GAME WEEK!!!!

Well, today, I start my non-informative preseason mini-series which I am calling “Out of the Cellar.”

Of course, when I say “out of the cellar” all you fellow old fogies out there are probably thinking about these guys:

But, alas, I am referring to none other than the Washington State Cougars and the University of Washington Defeateds.

And so, the “questions in reflection” for you this week are as follows:

1) Is this season more important for the Puppies or the Cougars?
2) What will it take for either school to re-ascend to Pac-10 respectability?

Today, in Part One of this three part mellow drama, we take a look at the potential pushovers (cough cough!) elsewhere in the conference that are targets for each school. In the next few days, I’ll offer a quick glance at the different rebuilding philosophies at work in both programs and the potential casualties and beneficiaries of each effort. Then, in the final installment, I’ll offer a kind-of-sort-of answer and prediction regarding our guiding questions.

So, here we go…..

You know, in the late 1990’s Johnny Rotten of Sex Pistols fame had a moderate MTV hit with Public Image Ltd. called “Seattle.”

The first verse had a lyric that went something like this:

Well, in the case of the once proud Huskies and Cougars, the basic law of sports physics (or something) says that for either Washington school to become a consistent upper division threat, a couple of programs currently above them are going to have to come down as well.

And that just ain’t going to be easy.

As we’ve detailed before on this blog, the reason for the new difficulty in re-ascending to Pac-10 contention is that the landscape of the Pac-10 has changed dramatically over the past six years.
For instance, in the 1980’s and late 1970’s there were essentially four real contenders in football in the Pac-10. They were: USC, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State. In the 1990’s, the early years were decidedly ALL the Huskies. But, by 1994, with the fall of both probation nation and Todd Marijuanavich, the Pac-10 got schizo, seeing several different teams capture the conference crown over the coming years, including Oregon in 94 (first time in forever), Stanford in 99 (Yep, it did happen), UCLA in 98, Arizona State in 96, and for the first time in the HISTORY of ever (well, not quite), Washington State in 97.

Then, at the start of the current decade, 2000 saw a bit more schitzoed activity from the Pac-10, yielding a conference champion Huskies (top 5 finish), complemented by a top 10 Oregon State team (talk about a shocker following 25+ straight losing seasons!). In 2001, it was the Quackers. In 2002, the Cougs again, and then, in 2003, well, it was USC and has been ever since.

That all said, my guess is that if you took a poll of Pac-10 coaches in 2003 and asked them to rank the top 6 programs in the conference for the decade to date, you would have received the following rankings (in no particular order):

1) Washington State
2) Washington
3) UCLA
4) Oregon
5) USC

Surprisingly, only six years later, only USC and Oregon have a case to grace those top 5 slots. So, while USC has dominated the conference, the upper middle and middle tier of the conference has been ripe with movement, improvement, and in the case of the Washington schools, a dramatic fall from grace.

For the Washington schools, the big elephant in the living room is that teams that used to be considered also-rans (e.g. Oregon State) not only became good, they also developed the type of stability they need to STAY good (stadium renovations). On top of that, the conference’s previous shaky bowl arrangements combined with a lot of within conference competitiveness have made it difficult for the conference to even get 6 teams bowl eligible.

What that means for all of us fans is that in order to return to a bowl game, we need to essentially tie for 5th in the conference. And while I know I’m speaking the obvious here, that means placing in the Upper Division.

So, with that in mind, here’s a look at the teams that Cougs and Puppies not only need to beat, but teams that both schools need to root against each week as well:

The Untouchables:

While Rome can change in a day due to coaching change or scandal, the following schools look like they are SOLID year-in-year-out upper division teams. In short, these guys aren’t going anywhere:

1) USC. By now, it sure seems that Pistol Pete is out to solidify himself as the greatest college coach ever. Only Urban Meyer (who may entice Pete jump to the NFL) or the NFL will keep USC from a continued legacy of dominance.

2) Oregon. Too much money, too much exposure, and those locker rooms.

I mean, “Bullya!” So, while the potential does exist for Kelly to bomb, I happen to think he’s the new Dennis Erickson, albeit without abandonment issues. So, the Quack are here to stay, folks. Here’s to hoping that they never manage to win it again.

3) Oregon State. Riley has solidified his recruiting lines, wants to retire in Corvallis, and appears to have taken all the success in stride. The only thing that could deride the Beavs at this point is a sudden case of BillDoba-itis—e.g. the Beavs start chasing after 4+ and 5 star recruits instead of developing their three stars boys from Texas into 6 star warriors.

4) CAL. Tedford sure looks like he’s cut from Belotti’s cloth: A great recruiter and solid coach who can’t knock the door down. Maybe this year they will get it done, but with SanFran and a great education as a recruiting tool, the Bears are not going down.

And if Tedford can bring someone else in to develop his quarterbacks, they may emerge as national contenders as well.

So, here are the teams the Washington schools need to pass:

Teams Nearing a Summit Attempt:

5) Stanford. Okay, so they haven’t even been to a bowl game in almost a decade. But, barring the death of Al Davis and a new job as the Raiders’ coach, Harbaugh isn’t going anywhere. Plus, with a Stanford education in tow that allows him to recruit nationally, Captain Comeback has two marquee recruiting classes in the books—with a third top 10 class on its way to pad a lineup that is already young and LOADED. They’ll be smart, they’ll be tough, and they’ll be upper division. Guaranteed.

6) Arizona. As noted here before, a real put up or shut up year for Stoops. After losing lil Willy, you think he might be ready to lie like a snake in the grass, coiled, and ready to strike for a Sun Bowl berth. Instead, Stoops crows that he’s got the best 11 athletes on defense that he’s ever had. Either Stoops is the DUMBEST head coach ever (hey, if you’ve got talent, and you don’t win, who gets blamed Mikey boy???) or he’s loaded. Here’s to thinking it’s the former. And last I checked, Tuscon is a WONDERFUL atmosphere for college athletics.

Teams with Sexy Program Killers:

7) Arizona State. For all of Denny’s history of success, the fact remains that his teams do quite well early on in his tenure until his self-created bandit climate tears the whole palace down (oh and he bolts, but that’s a minor point, right?). Sure, Denny won at U-Dah-Hoe (round 1) and Wyoming. And sure, he went 9-3 at WSU in his second year before bolting.

Of course, Miami sure went great for him early with all of Jimmy Johnson’s players . But, within two years of his bolt to the Seahawks, the Canes were already in shambles because of what he DIDN’T leave behind. And then, you have the 2000 Oregon State team that were ALL Riley recruits. And sure, Denny sent the Beavs to bowls after that, but it is well known that the program was a potential catastrophe when he left.

So, while Denny may still have a jewel or two in his cap, here’s to thinking that he tears down that ASU program before he has a chance to build it back up. Like Jim Walden says, “Dennis Erickson is like the elephant in the parade. It’s exciting and fun when he passes by, but there’s always a lot of clean-up left behind.”

8) UCLA. There are three things that I know about Tricky Ricky: (a) He can beat the Cougs; (b) He looks and sounds like a million bucks in front of that microphone; (c) He has no record of developing and winning with his own players. So, yes, Mr. Good Lookin’ won at Colorado using the Promise Keeper’s players. Sure, he won early at Washington (and looked good doing it). But in each case, he took two once proud programs, boosted them up, and then began to slowly tear them down.

Certainly, Ricky has shown that he can go toe-to-toe with CAL, ASU, and USC for recruits, but sooner rather than later he’s going to have to start winning. And, with the loss of DeWayne Walker, here’s to throwing a few bucks down that Ricky can’t surf over that wave. Both Washington schools better jump on this Ken doll in a hurry if they want a shot at an ascent.

The “Other” Washington School:
9) On a surface level, the only thing that Washington lost following last year’s Crapple Cup was a coach they no longer wanted. And, in the end, that may be true.

On the other hand, losing to a HORRIBLE WSU team last year was the main factor in helping Paul Wulff hold onto his first “real” and must have recruiting class. And with it, Washington lost a GREAT chance last year to really bury Wulff and the Cougs. Instead, we are quite alive today.

So, winning the Apple Cup this year provides Wulff with another important spring board for recruiting, a boast for having won the last 3 Apple Cups in Husky Stadium, and would give the Cougs a dominant 5 out of the last 6 in the series.

Winning the Apple Cup for the Puppies would give coach Sark HUGE credibility for his first class, and would signal a potential transition point in the program—something it will desperately need following what will be a painful upcoming year for their overly optimistic fan base.

Arguably, this year’s game portends to be a program maker or breaker for both schools’ quests “out of the cellar.” And because of that, it is the ONE MUST WIN game for both schools, no doubt about it.

So, there you have it: a conference that has SOME holes and question marks, but overall it sure looks to be a real tough nut to crack for both Washington programs.

What programs do you think are the best targets for our Cougs over the coming seasons? And what schools, besides the Huskies and Oregon, will you be looking for to tank it? I will return with part two in this series in the days ahead.

Continue to enjoy your week, will you?

With Love,

Osho Rojo