Outback Bowl Preview: Georgia vs Michigan State

Georgia Bulldogs (10-3, 7-1 in SEC)

Most Impressive Victory: 45-7 vs Auburn (Nov 12th)

Worst Loss: 42-10 vs LSU (Dec 3rd)

Notable Alumni: Champ Bailey, Kim Basinger, Lewis Grizzard, David Pollack, Frank Sinkwich, Fran Tarkenton, Charley Trippi, Herschel Walker, Hines Ward, Bubba Watson, Dominique Wilkins

Coming off of the first losing season in the Mark Richt era, this was supposed to be Richt’s swan song in Athens. There weren’t many that thought he would be around after this year. The schedule just looked too tough and there were too many question marks in Athens. Starting with Boise State and South Carolina and then moving right into back to back games with Mississippi State and Tennessee a couple of weeks later. Georgia lost their first two games but then ran the table in the rest of the regular season. Georgia picked off their opponents one by one as Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech all fell by the wayside. In retrospect it doesn’t look like an impressive run but when Georgia played all of those teams many were predicting the games to go against the Bulldogs. Overall, Georgia beat five teams that are playing in bowls but the fact remains that they lost to the three best teams on their schedule.

It is hard to tell just how good this Georgia team is right now. Georgia is very young- they only have two seniors on the two deep depth chart on defense (Brandon Boykin and DeAngelo Tyson), they start a red-shirt soph at QB, their leading rusher is a true freshman, their leading receiver in yardage is a true freshman, a sophomore led them in tackles and sacks. Georgia steps into the ring with a Michigan State team that isn’t all that much more experienced but that has more experience at QB (Kirk Cousins), RB (Edwin Baker) and WR (KeShawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham).

Both of these teams come into the game with very strong defenses. Critics will tell you that Georgia hasn’t played many good offenses and they would be right. The top offense Georgia played was Boise State (#9 in Total Offense) and then Georgia Tech (#17). The third best offense (statistically) that Georgia played was New Mexico State (46th). Michigan State comes into the game ranked 59th in the Nation in Total Offense so it isn’t like they are an offense juggernaut either.

When Georgia has the ball, they must establish something on the ground. Whether it’s with RS frosh Boo Malcome, true frosh Isaiah Crowell or junior Richard Samuel- Georgia needs someone to step up and get some yardage against a tough Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the Nation allowing 104 yards per game on the ground (in October there was a two game stretch where the Spartans gave up 220 against Wisconsin and 190 against Nebraska). If Georgia can get some kind of running game going then Aaron Murray can use the play-action and he can spread the ball around. Aaron Murray’s 33 TDs led the SEC by a wide margin and he’s thrown TD passes to 12 different players.

For more info on Georgia check out the Q&A we did last week with the Michigan State site A Beautiful Day for Football.

Michigan State Spartans (10-3, 7-1 in Big Ten)

Most Impressive Victory: 37-31 vs Wisconsin (Oct 22nd)

Worst Loss: 24-3 at Nebraska (Oct 29th)

Notable Alumni: Rod Brind’Amour, Plaxico Burress, Rashad Evans Kirk Gibson, Steve Garvey, Magic Johnson, Gray Maynard, Andre Rison, Robert Ulrich

This isn’t the same Michigan State team that got rolled last year by Alabama. This is a better team and a team that is one iffy call away from playing in the Rose Bowl. Michigan State has seniors in key positions and QB Kirk Cousins leds the charge. Cousins has thrown for over 3000 yards this year and has 24 TDs against 7 INT. Despite RB Edwin Baker’s production falling off this year (went from 2101 yards and 5 ypc to 655 yards to 4 ypc), the Spartans still found success running the football especially as the year went on. An interesting note is that in Michigan State’s three lowest rushing outputs of the year they lost two of them and only scored 10 points in the third. Stop the Spartans run game and make them one dimensional and you have a very good chance of beating them. Georgia is 11th in the Nation against the run and is the best rushing defense that Michigan State will play this year (the next closest is 37th ranked Michigan).

While Georgia beat five teams that went on to play in bowl games this year, so did Michigan State. Michigan State has a couple of victories that are higher in quality than Georgia has (Michigan and Wisconsin) but the Spartans have also lost to teams not as good as those who Georgia lost to (Notre Dame and Nebraska). So this is a very interesting match-up that looks pretty even on paper. One area that could be important is third down conversions. Michigan State only converted 39% on the year (10th in the Big Ten) although they did convert 50%+ in their last three games (two of which were against Indiana and Northwestern). Georgia on the other hand only let their opponent’s convert 29%. Another area is red zone conversions. On offense, Michigan State came out of the red zone empty handed 18% of the time (9th in the Big Ten). As good as Georgia’s defense was, their red zone defense wasn’t that good as they allowed a 89% opponent success rate (only Auburn was worse in the SEC). One note is that Georgia didn’t allow a lot of teams in the red zone as only Bama, LSU and Vandy allowed less in the SEC. Keep an eye on third down conversions and how both teams play in the red zone. I know it sounds obvious but in game where the teams appear even those will be key.

For more info on Michigan State check out the Q&A that Jim from A Beautiful Day for Football did with us.

THE PICK:

Kevin: I really like how the front seven of Georgia’s defense matches up with the Michigan State offensive line and I think that’s going to be the primary key in this game. Look for Georgia’s Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree to have big games on defense and look for Georgia to force Michigan State to throw the football. This one will be close but I think Georgia will edge this one out with their defense. The tipping point could be Special Teams. If Georgia’s Special Teams continue to be an issue then swing this one over to the Spartans.

Georgia 24 Michigan State 20