As the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline looms on the horizon, the Indians are once again in the need of a significant upgrade offensively in order to be serious contenders for a post-season spot. Between now and July 31st, there will be many rumors surrounding teams that are competing for the chance to play in October. Particularly the Indians, where the jury is still out whether they will be buyers, sellers or somewhere in between.
The rumored names will change daily, even hourly as the deadline creeps closer. For MLB, the non-waiver deadline has become likened to the National Football League’s draft, where half the fun comes in trade speculation prior to the event commencing. It is welcomed by both sports because it is free publicity; especially for baseball when it is at the center of the professional sports world as football training camps will have yet to begin.
So far, there have been a few rumors circling the Tribe’s wigwam; names including Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie have been suggested as possible third basemen who can provide much needed power from the right side. The former would require sending second-tier prospects to Oakland while the latter would come at the expense of losing one, most likely two top prospects including a few guys on the 25-man roster to Cincinnati.
Another name has emerged on the list of possible trade targets and this one is a surprise: Carlos Gomez. Several writers have suggested that Gomez would be a great fit with the Indians. When doing the research, it is easy to understand why.
Gomez spent the first five seasons of his MLB career as one of the league’s worst hitters. Last season, at 28, he was one of the best. Long one of baseball’s best defenders and fastest base runners, Gomez emerged as a legit MVP candidate in 2014 when he set career-high rates in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging.
Gomez’s approach at the plate is the antithesis of how it worked in Moneyball. In great piece written by Fangraph’s Jeff Sullivan, he notes Gomez’s free-swinging approach on first pitches:
“A year ago [2013], Gomez led regulars by swinging at 52% of first pitches. He had a lead on second place of six percentage points. Right now, Gomez leads regulars, having swung at 55% of first pitches. He has a lead on second place of almost 11 percentage points. Every statistical category in baseball has to have a leader. In almost every single instance, the leader is only the leader by a small margin. Gomez isn’t just swinging more at the first pitch than anyone — he could stay in the lead by taking more than 70 consecutive first pitches, were everything else to stay the same.
At 55%, Gomez is in rare territory, for an everyday player. In 2004, Vladimir Guerrero checked in at 54%. The same went for Randall Simon in 2002, and Vinny Castilla in 2001. To find a higher rate, you have to go back to Ozzie Guillen in 1991, when he swung at 56% of first pitches. And, in 1988, Mike Marshall swung at nearly 59% of first pitches. As raw percentages, Guillen and Marshall have Gomez beat. But, in 1988, the league-average first-pitch swing rate was about 33%. In 1991, it was about 30%. This year [2014], it’s about 27%.”
Baseball’s so-called Moneyball era around the turn of the millennium made an understanding of the value of on-base percentage ubiquitous. Now, it seems, pitchers have adjusted to take advantage of hitters that were likely scouted, developed and promoted, in part, for their patience. Since 2009, the median rate of first-pitch strikes among major league teams has increased every single season.
As more teams are moving away from the Moneyball style play, the demand for athletic, five-tool players are increasing both in scouting and player development.
Through 60 games, Gomez is hitting .274/.322/.448 in 258 plate appearances. His .448 slugging percentage would rank him third on the Indians with at least 200 PA’s, behind Jason Kipnis and David Murphy. Batting from the right side, his power would be much needed in a lineup that lacks it and an advantage in a division that just lost two of it’s own.
Gomez is hitting both righties and lefties well this season. Note how he is hitting slightly better against righties:
2015 vs. LHP: .245/.339/.408
2015 vs. RHP: .281/.317/.458
For his career:
vs. LHP: .257/.312/.447
vs. RHP: .263/.315/.411
There should be trepidation with Gomez, but not for the reason that has derailed him this season. Injuries, not plate discipline, have slowed Gomez. He’s missed time with hamstring and hip troubles, not ideal for a player whose value relies on speed.
Last season Gomez swung and missed more than ever, and chased more pitches than he has since 2007. That’s worrisome for a hitter approaching 30. Even so, it’s impossible to look past his recent production. Ian Desmond is the only other hitter to steal 20 bases and hit 20 home runs the past two seasons. Does that make him safe? I think so. It’s now been nearly 300 games of Gomez being very good to wipe out the first several seasons of his career when he struggled.
Gomez is in the second year of a three year, $24 million which Milwaukee avoided arbitration with. At this point, he is still owed roughly $4 million for the rest of ’15 and $9 million for 2016. For a player that produced 7.5 and 5.7 WAR in’13 and ’14 respectively, this price tag would seem to be a bargain. ZIPS projects Gomez to earn another 2 WAR the rest of the season which would put the cost at $500,000 per win the rest of the season; a modest expense if it means the difference between making the playoffs or not.
It would require the Indians to send a lot of quality prospects to the Brewers, as Gomez would be in high demand. The Tribe would have to part with one of the young outfielders such as Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer; essentially selling wins later for now. I would expect a current and young 25-man roster player such as Cody Anderson or Danny Salazar to also depart in any such deal for Gomez; he would not come cheap.
Some would view this deal to be over the top and wild; something that would occur in a video game rather in real life because, well, Cleveland usually does not historically make a big splash at the deadline. As with all trades, one involving Gomez should not be judged until it is announced and the players involved in the deal are analyzed.
He is good, affordable and Cleveland should entertain the thought.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
