After a long day of everything Pac-12 Media Day, my cup runneth over with the regurgitated obvious regarding the Pac-12 Conference 2012 football campaign.
Every year, each of the conference’s constituents sends their coach and a couple of their standout players to Los Angeles for a preseason beauty pageant reserved for the softest of softball questions. And that’s fine. I understand this is nothing more than an opportunity to kick off the year, get a look at everyone’s media guide cover boys, and hear how hard everyone’s working this summer in preparation for their upcoming run for the roses. But “nothing” has something on what we learn from this annual parade, and that’s just how each and every coach in this league wants it.
Luckily for you, I’ve got a few thoughts on what I think I will, hope to, and probably won’t see when we kick-off the 2012 Pac-12 football season, and even luckier for you … I’m happy to let you in on them.
Without further adieu, “I now christen thee…the Flying Wasp!” (Sorry, obligatory Caddyshack reference):
What I think will happen-
- USC will lose a game or two. I know it’s become common-speak to crown the Trojans “back” and “unbeatable” since they squeaked by Oregon in Autzen last fall and Matt Barkley announced he was returning for his senior season amongst a room full of his dearest hanger-ons. I believe such talk has made them more overrated than a Kardashian in a middle-school talent show. Yes, Matt Barkley is good and yes, their receivers are likely better. But they still lack depth, are vulnerable defensively, and are being rushed back to contender status a little too quickly by the pundits who cover the game. Good team? No question. World beater? I think not.
- Washington State will beat someone really good. Don’t put me amongst those who think the Cougars will win 7 or 8 games, but Mike Leach knows how to score points, and Jeff Tuel is the good and experienced quarterback Leach needs to put his offense into top gear. Those two things, coupled with an untimely poor performance by the likes of an Oregon, Stanford or in-state rival Washington, will lead to a conference shaking upset.
- Stanford will take a step down from the top-tier of the conference elite. Not because David Shaw isn’t a good coach, but because of the inexperience under center and their lack of sufficient defensive talent to offset it. Andrew Luck was that good and if you don’t think so, you’re either a fan of the tree or a fan of the “tree”… if you know what I mean.
- Jeff Tedford will coach his last season in Berkeley. He came to Cal as a young-up-and-comer, and proved worthy his first few seasons in the Bay. But he has since been on a slow decline to mediocrity, which I will believe will culminate with his termination at the end of this year. He’s had ample time, above average recruits, and a handful of opportunities to take the next step, but his system seems to have been left behind and due to such, he’s been left with it.
What I hope will happen-
- Mike Riley will win enough games to keep his job. He’s wearing-out his welcome amongst the unruliest of Beaver Nation, but outsiders looking in see an above average coach, using for-the-most-part average players, working with below average facilities necessary to compete in today’s college game. I know it’s vogue to get that “young hot coach,” but ask yourself this: Who’s going to take that job? If they’re really “that good” and have success in Corvallis, they’re going to move on. Oregon State is not a destination job; it’s a step to a better one. Riley doesn’t want to leave, has a proven record of success, and has built a reputation which affords him at least the opportunity to recruit capable players. He’ll get you a run every 4 or 5 years, accept it and leave him be.
- The Huskies finish sub .500. Sorry, but I’m an Oregonian and am bred to root against them. They’ve stunk for the better part of the century and due to such, their arrogance has been in hibernation. But if you think that with success they won’t be back bigger and stronger in regards to the aforementioned arrogance, you likely have a degree from that very university on the lake.
- Matt Barkley will have that Val Kilmer, Top Gun, “who’s the best pilot?” smirk wiped wholeheartedly from his face. I wish him no harm, but for more reasons than I have time to tell I’d like him to suffer a heartbreaking defeat or two … preferably at the hands of a lesser-known.
- Someone in the conference develops a high-level defense capable of winning games on its own. The Pac-12 is known for its high-powered offense, but I can’t help but think some of that offensive success is due to a substandard level of “D.” We need another “Desert Swarm,” or “Gang Green” to take this league by storm, if not for a bit of diversity, but for at least an acceptable level of national respect.
What I won’t see happen-
- Chip Kelly declares his allegiance to the University of Oregon and turns his back on prospective NFL jobs. Sorry Duck fans, but I fear that this may be Charles’ last season in Eugene. His flirtation with Tampa last offseason essentially spelled-out his intention to try the next level, and as much as it would pain me to see him leave a program which he’s undeniably taken to a new level, I can’t skewer a guy for wanting to take on the challenge of the game’s Mt. Everest.
- Utah plays Stanford or Oregon. That’s right, two years in the conference and two years avoiding two of the league’s best teams. How this came to be I’ll never know, but it seems as if Larry Scott promised the Utes a rose garden when entering the conference … or at least a tightly mown path to a Rose Bowl.
- The Pac-12 Conference in the “same league” as the SEC. By now we’ve all heard that the SEC has won the last 6 BCS Championships, but what you never hear is that they didn’t all win the BCS Championship in the same year. Just because you have the eventual champion in your league, doesn’t mean that half of that same conference isn’t mediocre at best. “But it’s got like 7 teams ranked in the top-25!” So what? Rankings are based on perception and if you play 4 non-conference games against glorified prep schools on your home field (which is what the majority of SEC schools do), and all your conference games are “viewed” as formidable opponents, perception is going to be skewed in your favor. Would someone please beat these guys this year?! Please?!
- Arizona goes to the Rose Bowl. Sorry Rich Rodriguez, they’ve not been there prior to your arrival and you won’t be the difference … this year. I think you’ve got a shot to do something notable during your tenure in Tucson, but I’d be willing to bet a good portion of my future earnings that it’ll be at least a season or two before your system gets traction, and you get the players to help it do just that.
There you have it, a few of my way-too-early predictions and prognostications for the season-to-be in the Pac-12 Conference. Agree? Disagree? Chuckle at my knowledge or lack-there-of? Any or all would be acceptable responses to a late-July proclamation of the season-to-be, but one thing I think is likely universal; we’re all ready for it to begin.
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