With the departure of David West and Roy Hibbert, coupled with the desire to make the team name synchronize with their style of play, the Indiana Pacers underwent a significant revamp this offseason.
They cut loose primary back-up point guard CJ Watson, primary back-up power forward Luis Scola, third-string point guard Donald Sloan and last season’s sometimes leading scorer and sometimes bench warmer Chris Copeland, and also traded away European sharpshooter Damjan Rudez.
In return, they signed high-powered scoring guard Monta Ellis to a $44m/4yr contract, added former Lakers big man Jordan Hill for a single season at $5m, traded for Timberwolves swingman Chase Budinger, and signed promising rookies Myles Turner and Joe Young.
Here’s the outlook for each player on the roster for the 2015-2016 season.
Paul George
2014-2015 (6 games): 8.8ppg, 3.7rpg, 1.0apg; 2013-2014: 21.7ppg, 6.8rpg, 3.5apg
The Pacers’ 2015-2016 season will go as far as Paul George can take them. The 25-year-old should be back to 100% after suffering that gruesome leg injury nearly a full year ago, though it remains to be seen what kind of a player he will become. The six-game cameo at the end of last season provided glimpses of the old PG, and with another half a year to get his body and mind into shape he should theoretically have a monster season. PG himself said during a tour of China recently that his aim next season is league MVP.
The problem is, you never know how a player will be after a serious injury. He could take his game to the next level and enter the MVP conversation like James Harden or Steph Curry, or he could be iffy like Derrick Rose, showing flashes of brilliance but otherwise clearly not the same player he was and probably never will be again. The worst case scenario is the Danny Granger-style “fall off cliff” decline, but that’s unlikely because PG’s still young and the injury was a “clean break” without any ligament damage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omzy2f6Ojcc
Debate rages on over whether PG should start and/or play significant minutes at the four. In recent interviews, PG didn’t exactly seem enthused when conceding that he might have to play “a couple of minutes” at power forward. Bird quickly made it known that the team will make that decision for PG and that he believes the supposed wear and tear from all the extra banging is overstated.
I’m worried because he’s returning from a serious injury, and the last thing you’d want to see is him getting reinjured again trying to defend a bruiser type like David West. My guess is the Pacers will test it out early in the season and see how it goes, and I predict he will probably end up playing an average of 10-15 minutes at the four, with game-to-game minutes fluctuating a lot depending on matchups. I don’t want to see PG guarding Zach Randolph for even one minute, let’s just put it that way.
Monta Ellis
2014-2015: 18.9ppg, 2.4rpg, 4.1apg
Monta Ellis has his detractors and for good reason. He’s undersized and he’s not a great defender or shooter. Analytics frowns on his production and efficiency notwithstanding some gawdy numbers. But the eye test often loves him. He gives the Pacers a legitimate 1B option next to Paul George with his ability to create for himself or teammates off the dribble. I can’t think of the last time the Pacers have had such a dynamic scorer who can get into the lane virtually at will.
There is a good chance Ellis will lead the Pacers in scoring next season unless Paul George’s game erupts to the next level. He averaged 16.9 shot attempts per game in Dallas in 2014-2015, but someone will have to make up for the 19.7 shots per game David West and Roy Hibbert combined to take last season. Most of all, I like that he will take a lot of pressure off PG on offense with his willingness and ability to take and make “bail out” shots at the end of the shot clock and the game.
What is more concerning about Ellis’s shot selection is his lack of defense, which he addressed at his introductory presser, first branding it as media talking out of their butts, before strangely adding that poor D is not a problem because only “a handful of guys” in the entire NBA play D, and one of them, Paul George, is on his team. Not the best of starts.
Monta Ellis, Part II: "I think it’s only a handful of guys in this NBA that play defense. You can name 5 of them, and one…is on my team."
— Gregg Doyel (@GreggDoyelStar) July 14, 2015
George Hill
2014-2015: 16.1ppg, 4.2rpg, 5.1apg
George Hill was a very good NBA player for the half of the season he played in (43 games), setting career-highs all across the board without sacrificing his shooting efficiency. He recorded by far the best PER of his career last season with a score of 21.5, nearly five points above his previous high of 16.6 set in 2012-2013. The Pacers went 26-17 with Hill in the lineup and 23-13 when he started, a pretty amazing feat considering that it would translate to a 52-30 record over the course of a full season.
He didn’t have a choice, of course, so the question will be whether the George Hill we see next season will continue his aggressive play or revert to the passive version we fear.
My guess is that we’ll see something in between. With the addition of Ellis and the full-time return of PG, there’s just no way Hill will continue taking 12.4 shots per game like he did last season, though I’d like to still see him take around 10 shots every night to ensure he remains active. I like that Ellis will take over some of the ball-handling duties in half-court pick and roll sets, meaning Hill can shift to the top of the key or the corners to wait for wide-open three-point opportunities.
Jordan Hill
2014-2015: 12ppg, 7.9rpg, 1.5apg
J. Hill posted career numbers last season on an awful Lakers’ squad, but I’m keeping my expectations in check after getting burned by the failed Evan Turner experiment.
I’m not expecting Hill to average doubt digits in scoring next season; he can’t reproduce Hibbert’s rim protection or West’s mid-range efficiency either. What I would like to see from him, however, is to return to being the offensive rebounding machine he was a couple of seasons back. Between 2011-2012 and 2013-2014, Hill had a rebound percentage of around 19%-21%, but last year that slipped back to 16.4%. His offensive rebounding percentage in particular fell to just 9.9%, less than half of what he put up in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
Also, Jordan Hill's contract is for one year/$5 million. He's likely your leading candidate to be starting center.
— Candace Buckner (@CandaceDBuckner) July 13, 2015
There is cause for optimism. Hill is small town guy who is looking forward to living in a quiet environment after years in LA so he can put more focus into basketball. He brings more energy and athleticism than Hibbert and West could muster together and says he believes he has “a lot more to give.” Time will tell.
CJ Miles
2014-2015: 13.5pgg, 3.1rpg, 1.1apg
CJ Miles put up career stats on the depleted Pacers last season, starting in 40 of the 70 games he played in but shooting less than 40% from the field and a middling 34.5% from the three-point line. Those numbers surprised me because I recall him having some really impressive stretches where he just shot the lights out.
I like his streaky shooting and feel his athleticism is very underrated. He threw down some monster dunks in traffic last season and is deceptively fast on the break.
If PG is starting at the four, then Miles will still get a chance to start at the three, competing with newcomer Chase Budinger and potentially even Solomon Hill. I think Miles’ scoring will be down next season but his efficiency will go up with him having to force things a lot less and being able to allow the offense to come to him.
Rodney Stuckey
2014-2015: 12.6ppg, 3.5rpg, 3.1apg
Stuckey earned his stripes in Indy last season and revived his reputation after several bad years in Detroit. He shot 44% from the field (career high) and was a surprisingly effective three-point shooter last season, knocking them down at 39%. His previous career high from three was 31.7%.
I don’t agree with critics who diss his new $21m/3yr contract, saying he is redundant with Ellis on the roster. While both are mid-range players and can finish at the rim, Stuckey is a different type of player to Ellis, using more brute strength than finesse. Next season I see Stuckey fully embracing his sixth-man role, the same one in which he notched several 30+ scoring games just a few months ago.
Oh, and he just got married.
As I said on @Sports1430AM, Rodney Stuckey plans to re-sign with the Pacers after his wedding. Kinda busy right now, as you can imagine.
— Scott Agness (@ScottAgness) July 17, 2015
Chase Budinger
2014-2015: 6.8ppg, 3.0rpg, 1.0apg
Budinger’s numbers last season don’t look good, but that’s expected from a team that had no need for him and was looking to both tank and develop Andrew Wiggins.
When healthy, however, Budinger is a very versatile player, one capable of participating in both the dunk contest and three-point competition at All-Star Weekend (he actually was a dunk comp contestant in 2012). I am assuming he is healthy, or else the Pacers wouldn’t have traded for him, and I expect him to play consistent minutes at small forward, possibly even as a starter. The best case scenario for the Pacers is if he can go back to being the productive player he was in Houston, someone who can slash effectively, defend adequately, and knock down threes at close to 40%.
Larry Bird welcomes the newest #Pacers players, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. pic.twitter.com/7jsxel3riz
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) July 14, 2015
Solomon Hill
2014-2015: 8.9ppg, 3.8rpg, 2.2apg
Solo might find himself being the odd Hill out next season. He picked up his usage last season amid all the injuries but failed to make the kind of jump Paul George did when Danny Granger lost time with injury. Couple that with a disastrous Summer League performance — 3 points per game at 18% shooting in 26.7 minutes against scrubs — and the future does not look bright for the third-year player. His value continues to be defense, but he’s not good enough at that end to justify his mediocrity everywhere else. Don’t be surprised if the Pacers try to move him before the trade deadline if Budinger and Miles stay healthy and play well.
Ian Mahinmi
2013-2015: 4.3ppg, 5.8rpg, 0.8bpg
As cruel as it is to say, Ian Mahinmi is basically a poor man’s Roy Hibbert whose free-throw shooting has entered the Twilight Zone, falling from a respectable 62.1% in 2013-2014 to a WTF 30.4% last season. He is frustrating to watch if you expect him to finish consistently under the basket, but he is still a top 10 rim protector in the league. It’s just that Hibbert has the “verticality” reputation and Mahinmi doesn’t, and unless he inherits that reputation he will continue to be a foul machine who gets no respect from the refs.
What he does have going for him is that he is a professional who doesn’t pout when he doesn’t get touches (cough, Hibbert), and he is slightly more mobile than the team’s departing starting center, meaning he might still get some rotation minutes. Andrew Bogut’s rim protection was vital to the Warriors last season, and Ian is now the team’s sole rim protector (unless Myles Turner can develop that reputation).
Unfortunately, the numbers you see above are pretty much what you’re gonna get from Ian for the rest of his career. He is by all accounts a cool guy, but it seems he’s perfectly happy to be a back-up center with a decent paycheck and has no desire to improve his game.
Lavoy Allen
2014-2015: 5.0ppg, 5.1rpg, 1.2apg
Lavoy Allen is the last man standing from the Danny Granger trade a couple of seasons back. He was supposed to be a toss-in along with Evan Turner, but as it turned out he’s a pretty serviceable big who has earned a fan in Larry Bird.
Despite not having the size or talent to dominate, Allen plays hard and isn’t afraid to do the dirty work down low. He’s actually a double-double player per 36 minutes, shoots close to 50% from the floor, and can nail around 70% of his free throws. Despite this, Allen was more of a third-stringer last season, and his role this season could be anything from the same thing to starting power forward or center. My guess is he’ll come off the bench but earn a bigger role.
Myles Turner (Rookie)
Larry Bird started off by emphasizing Turner’s youth and tempering expectations by saying that the teenager will play a little next season. After an impressive Summer League performance where Turner put up 18.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per game, Bird believes he could play “a lot.” What Bird means by his comments is all relative. Is “a lot” 15 minutes a game or 25 minutes a game? I suppose it all depends on how well Turner plays. And as easy as it is to get carried away by some promising early signs, remember that Turner is regarded as more of a long-term project than a rookie who can contribute right away.
As such, expect a lot of ups and downs and him hitting the “rookie wall” at some point throughout the season. There are some guesses that he could be starting before the season is over, but I think that is being overly optimistic. My modest expectation this season is for him to eventually become a solid rotational player who offers the occasional glimpse into how good he can be. Is 6-8 points, 5 rebounds and nearly a block a game being optimistic or pessimistic?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU0fjhs6SbY
Joe Young (Rookie)
Mighty Joey Buckets topped all scorers at the Orlando Summer League with 22.5 points a game. The top scorer from the Orlando Summer league a season ago was Glen Rice Jr, a career D-Leaguer who has only played a grand total of 11 games in the NBA. The summer before that it was Reggie Jackson, and the year before that it was Lance Stephenson. The summer league was canceled in 2011 due to the lockout, but in 2010 the scoring champ was Jrue Holiday. So yeah, it’s a mixed bag, but what is worth noting is that Jackson, Stephenson and Holiday were all playing in their second summer league when they were crowned scoring champs.
I’m not declaring Joe Young the steal of the draft just yet, but the fact that he got a four-year contract from the Pacers (with the first two years guaranteed) shows how much faith they have in him. With George Hill, Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey clogging up minutes in the back court, it’s hard to see Young getting much playing time this season barring injury, and if the Pacers sign another third-string point guard Young might not end up seeing the court at all. But if he’s still in the league a couple of years down the track it’ll mean he’s turned out to be pretty good.
Shayne Whittington
2014-2015: 2.9ppg, 1.5rpg, 0.3apg
The player ranked dead last in ESPN’s player rankings last season has a lot to prove after earning another one-year contract with the Pacers. Like last season, when he appeared in just 20 games, Whittington will likely be pure insurance for injuries. When he’s played he actually wasn’t that terrible, showing an ability to confidently knock down mid-range jumpers and proving that he’s not a “stretch mark four”. Getting a guaranteed contract when guys like CJ Watson, Chris Copeland and Donald Sloan were shown the door suggests there is perhaps more potential to Whittington than meets the eye. Or it could be just because he’s cheap.
There's no telling what may come of the Pacers' re-signing of Shayne Whittington, ESPN's 450th ranked player last season, for 1yr guaranteed
— Knuman (@PacersPulse31) July 13, 2015
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