We’re still in July, but after a flurry of moves over the past couple of weeks the Indiana Pacers are looking like a completely different team with a new roster and fresh philosophy.
It’s farewell for David West, Roy Hibbert, Luis Scola, CJ Watson, Damjan Rudez, Chris Copeland and Donald Sloan. Hello to Monta Ellis, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Myles Turner and Joe Young.
It’s hard to offer a prediction of how the Indiana Pacers will fare in the 2015-2016 season without having seen them play a single game or even knowing if the roster is set. In the East, however, anything can happen, and apart from LeBron and the Cavs there’s really no sure thing to reach the Conference Finals. So Pacers fans can dream, at least for now.
What we do know is that they’ll definitely try to play at a faster pace and improve their anemic offensive (not hard), and that their defensive won’t be nearly as good. Whether that results in a net positive or net negative remains to be seen.
Either way, it’s going to be a huge test of Frank Vogel’s coaching ability. Without West and Hibbert, everything changes. Over the last few seasons, the West pick and roll was the Pacers’ bread and butter on the offensive end, while on defensive it was all about using the length on the wings to disrupt and suffocate and funnel opponents to the Big Fella.
With this new roster, neither strategy is going to work. Neither Jordan Hill nor Lavoy Allen can do the pick and pop like West does, and Myles Turner’s not ready to fill that role just yet. Ian Mahinmi can replace some of the rim protection Hibbert offers, but I have doubts the foul machine will ever earn the respect he deserves from the refs.
Accordingly, we’ll likely see a brand new style of play at both ends. It might take a bit of time to work, though I feel like the Paul George-Monta Ellis duo is going to be deadly on offense. If Ellis dedicates himself to being more of a slash-and-kick playmaker than a pure scorer, he will open up so many opportunities for guys on the wings, and PG, George Hill, CJ Miles and Chase Budinger are all very capable three-point shooters. Having three of those four around the three-point line while Ellis plays the pick and roll with Jordan Hill — who can roll for alley-oops or point-blank finishes as an option — is a tantalizing thought, at least conceptually.
The problem with Monta Ellis is that he might still focus on chucking up shots too much, especially from the three-point line, where he is a highly inefficient 28.5%. No one who shoots at such a percentage should be taking 3.6 threes a game. Rodney Stuckey was supposed to be a similarly awful shooter from the outside, but last season he was terrific, so ideally Stuckey will be able to keep it up and Ellis will be able to improve by drinking the same Indiana water. There is also the risk, of course, that Ellis will still be shit and last year was just an anomaly for Stuckey, in which case the Pacers are stuffed with gunners who put up too many mid-range shots.
Ellis needs to go back to the 2007-2008 version of himself, the player who drove to the rim at every opportunity and finished the season shooting a career-best 53% from the field and only took 0.6 three-point attempts per game. That was a player who scored 19.2 points on just 14.4 shots per game per 36 minutes, as opposed to last season, when he put up a much less efficient 20.2 points on 18.1 shots a game per 36 minutes.
The other key to the team’s offense is of course PG. He admitted in a recent interview that there are still some parts of his game that are not yet “PG-like”, though with three more months to go he’s confident he’ll get to where he needs to be, and that’s apparently the MVP conversation. Ideally, the Paul George of 2015-2016 will be a player who is 100% healed, physically and mentally; someone who has further developed his offensive arsenal to add some go-to moves and better playmaking skills.
Paul George says his goal for this season is to win MVP http://t.co/adqy7qwZjX
— Kurt Helin (@basketballtalk) July 19, 2015
PG will likely never be the type of scorer Harden, Curry or Durant are, but he can aim to be a matchup nightmare who can score over the smaller defenders with his length and athleticism, and blow by the bigger defenders with his speed and craftiness.
I therefore envision PG all over the court next season. Perhaps he’ll use picks by Jordan Hill and Myles Turner to free himself up for drives into the lane, where he will need to improve on his finishing if he intends on going all the way to the rim. Or maybe, if he’s being used extensively at the four, to be the pick man for Monta or George Hill and use his quickness against the slower defender to either cut to the basket or flare back out for the three. Post ups against smaller dudes, face ups against bigger dudes. Or even give himself a bit of a breather by standing in the corner and waiting for the kickout from Monta. It’s going to be a season where we find out just how versatile and dynamic PG can be.
The point of playing faster is of course to get more scoring opportunities. I felt a little piece of me die every game last season whenever I saw Roy trying to post up, which usually resulted in him getting stripped (and falling over), or tossing up a blind hook and praying that it would hit the rim enough times to drop through (and falling over). Being in decline, West’s shoulder-lowering bulldozes to the rim were also not as effective as he struggled to finish at times, and if Mahinmi could just catch the ball down low it would be a pleasant surprise. A lot of the time their possessions just ended up being a desperation shot by one of the guards or wing players.
Last season, the Pacers were the 11th slowest team in the league and had the 7th worst offensive rating overall. They were also 27th out of 30 teams in terms of fast break points with just 9.5 per game. It’s hard to see that not improving next season as Vogel looks to push the pace and get easy buckets in transition. He certainly appears to have the personnel to do it as Ellis, PG, Budinger, Miles and George Hill can all run the floor very well. PG and George Hill in particular will have to use their length to earn deflections and possible breakaway opportunities, while Lavoy Allen, Myles Turner and Jordan Hill need to watch David West tapes to learn that long heave off the rebound. I don’t anticipate the Pacers becoming one of the fastest teams in the league, though something in the top 10-15 for pace, offensive efficiency and fast break points should be goals to work towards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVhFc7-h0OQ
At the other end of the floor, the Pacers are lucky that they still have two excellent wing defenders in George Hill and Paul George. But as I noted earlier, with Mahinmi unable to play significant minutes (he averaged 5.4 fouls per 36 minutes last season) and Myles Turner being just a rookie, they are going to have general struggles on defense and protecting the rim. Vogel will have to find ways to hide Ellis on defense and get whatever he can out of his front line, likely going for a “platoon-style” committee at both the four and five spots with some mish-mash of J. Hill, Allen, Mahinmi, Turner and Whittington. Vogel seems to have a knack for getting his players to dial in on the defensive end and he’ll need to work his magic to the fullest next season. It’s not going to be pretty at times and they’ll just have to suck it up and adjust.
It is inevitable that the Pacers will experience growing pains as they adjust to the new personnel, strategies and philosophies. I find it interesting that a lot of people believe this is barely a playoff team in the Leastern Conference. Despite being decimated by injuries, they were still good enough for 38 wins and only missed the postseason because of tiebreakers. They only had a 50% Paul George for only six games and George Hill missed half the season. David West missed a decent chunk at the start too.
Provided they stay healthy, a full season of 100% PG and the “new” G. Hill should be more than enough to get the Pacers to the playoffs. Cleveland should be a lock for the top seed because you can’t trust the Bulls to remain healthy. The Hawks lost Caroll and perhaps their mojo in the playoffs. The Wizards lost Paul Pierce, the Raptors lost Amir Johnson and Lou Williams, and the Nets are rebuilding on the fly. Milwaukee, which had a great offseason, is poised for ascension, while Miami should be pretty good and Boston should be better, and the Hornets could go either way. And New York is…well, let’s forget about New York.
In other words, the Pacers should aim high. Like top four high. Not to say they’ll get there, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t put themselves in that second tier along with all the other teams hoping for a date with the Cavs in the Conference Finals.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
