Lance Stephenson’s departure to Charlotte, combined with Paul George’s horrific injury, will spell disaster for Indiana.
The Indiana Pacers finished last season as the Eastern Conference’s top seed despite limping to the finish with only 12 wins in their last 25 games. After an unceremonious exit from the Conference Finals, the Pacers failed to re-sign assists leader Lance Stephenson, lost Paul George for the year to a horrific leg injury and basically failed to make a significant impact in free agency. All of these factors have led to the inevitable question of whether the Pacers have become a lottery team this offseason.
The losses of Lance Stephenson and Paul George will be the most difficult hurdle this team has to overcome. This duo combined for 36 percent of the Pacers’ points, 39 percent of Pacers assists, 49 percent of 3-point field goals and contributed 18.2 win shares. Replacing this much production would be difficult for any team, but especially for one in a “win now” mode.
George was the team’s leading scorer, 3-point shooter, and ball-stealer, not to mention the only bona fide superstar on this Indiana roster. With a long road to recovery ahead of him, the Pacers will be eligible for a Disabled Player exception, an exception that is available to teams who lose a player for the season. It can be used for a one-year contract or signing and trading for a player who has one year left on his current deal. The exception amount is determined by which of these is lower – the midlevel exception or half of the player’s salary. This will give the Pacers $5.3 million to spend on a replacement for Paul George, leaving very few options on a lackluster list beginning (and possibly ending) with names like Shawn Marion.
Another issue for the Pacers revolves around the decline of star center Roy Hibbert, a player that was really coming into his own before a dreadful season last year. Hibbert averaged his lowest points production since his rookie season while also shooting the lowest field goal percentage of his career. The Georgetown product took 45 percent of his shots from 3 to 10 feet, while only shooting 41 percent from that distance. Conversely, he took 26 percent of his shots inside of 3 feet, while connecting on 56 percent of these attempts. Hibbert simply got ran out of the paint consistently, settling for farther, lower-percentage shots all season. Unless Hibbert can go back to consistently getting into good position and taking high percentage shots, the Pacers will lack the post presence to help offset their wing losses.
The final obstacle preventing the Pacers from reaching the playoffs lies in the strengthening of the division around them – teams they will have to play 16 times. The Chicago Bulls will be galvanized by the return of Derrick Rose, the Cleveland Cavaliers (obviously) got LeBron James and Milwaukee is a young team that will be improved with the addition of Jabari Parker. Now boasting James and possibly Kevin Love, it seems almost a given that Cleveland will overtake the Pacers as the top team in the division. If not Cleveland, then Chicago, who can only be better with Derrick Rose back in the fold.
Indiana knew it was a possibility to lose Lance Stephenson, it knew that Hibbert may have regressed, but the loss of Paul George, its prized star, puts the team behind the eight-ball. The other losses were calculated, there were contingency plans, but now the Pacers are a less-talented team without a player capable of carrying them. In short, welcome to the NBA Lottery family, Indiana. May your stay be confined to one season.
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